How to win without Donald Trump - or Joe Biden

Donald Trump campaigns in Casper, Wyoming, for Harriet Hageman, who is challenging Republican incumbent Liz Cheney. Picture: AFP

Some primaries matter more than others. Georgia’s last Tuesday mattered a lot.

The Peach State’s Governor Brian Kemp walloped former senator David Perdue 74 per cent to 22 per cent despite Perdue’s endorsement from former Donald Trump, backed with $US3.1m from his political action committee. In a huge turnout, Kemp carried all the state’s 159 counties, even taking Perdue’s home county of Glynn by 40 points.

Attorney-General Chris Carr, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Insurance Commissioner John King also overcame Trump-endorsed challengers – and in Raffensperger’s case, an unrelenting barrage of slashing personal attacks from the former president.

Kemp’s win provides valuable lessons for other Republican candidates, in both primaries and general elections. The governor played down the importance of Trump’s opposition, saying, “He’s mad at me. I’m not mad at him.” Kemp never allowed the race to be about the former president or Trump’s criticism of him for failing to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results.

Instead, Kemp made the contest about his own record, highlighting his handling of the Covid pandemic, economic development initiatives, and leadership in passing essential reforms to improve education, cut taxes, crack down on crime, make it easier to vote and harder to cheat, and limit abortions. By emphasising how successfully he had governed as a conservative, the governor reminded Republicans why they liked him in the first place.

Brian Kemp speaks during his primary night election party in Atlanta after defeating former US senator David Perdue. Picture: Getty Images

Kemp also focused on the challenge the GOP faces from Democrat gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams. He pointed to her far-left views and said if Perdue couldn’t beat Jon Ossoff – arguably a lacklustre candidate – in last year’s Senate run-off, then he couldn’t beat Abrams this November. Kemp, on the other hand, went toe-to-toe with Abrams four years ago and walked away the winner.

There are also lessons from Tuesday for Democrats. Despite White House protestations that Joe Biden will indeed seek a second term, more and more Democrats have realised that nominating an 81-year-old in 2024 would be a terrible error — and that this particular octogenarian will likely bring a poor approval rating with him. There’s a growing sense that things won’t miraculously get better for the Democrat president, especially on the economy with persistent inflation and growing threats of a recession. Another Democrat will have to step forward, and Kemp’s race gives a good model of how to do it.

Members of congress and Biden’s cabinet can’t so easily distance themselves from president and party, but Democrat governors are in a better position to. Just as Kemp handled Trump by rising above him, so could Democratic governors transcend Biden by using their records to outline a new Democrat vision.

There are ambitious Democrat governors who sure seem like they want to run in 2024, including North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, New Jersey’s Phil Murphy, California’s Gavin Newsom, Colorado’s Jared Polis, Illinois’s J.B. Pritzker and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer. Even Abrams, still a candidate, is interested in a White House bid. Yet while they yearn to dominate the national stage, it’s unclear who has the necessary skills and most must get re-elected first.

Speaking of Abrams, Tuesday’s Georgia results also provided her food for thought on the coming general election. With some scattered votes to be tallied, GOP turnout is 1,196,065 and Democrat turnout 717,433 While Democratic turnout increased 30 per cent over the last midterm in 2018, Republican turnout increased 96 per cent over 2018 and there were 66 per cent more GOP voters than Democrats this year.

Also, Abrams may not be the skilled candidate some thought. Tuesday’s primary was the first run under Georgia’s new election law, which she has previously denounced as “voter suppression”. Yet turnout hit a record high, lines were few and the count quick and smooth. It’s clear Abrams’ claims were utterly false. Still, she now says high turnout was “causation without correlation” and that “increased turnout has nothing to do with voter suppression.” If her statements strike you as nonsense, you’re not alone.

Though she still refuses to admit she was defeated, Abrams lost to Kemp by 1.4 per cent in 2018, a good year for Democrats. This year is shaping up to be considerably different.

Georgia provided many instructive lessons on Tuesday. Let’s see if candidates can apply them.

Karl Rove twice masterminded the election of George W. Bush.

The Wall Street Journal