Haley catches DeSantis in Republican race for second in Iowa

The race is on – for second place – in Iowa, the state that hosts the first 2024 Republican presidential nominating contest in January.

Former US president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Las Vegas at the weekend. Picture: AFP

The race is on – for second place – in the state that hosts the first 2024 Republican presidential nominating contest on January 15.

Donald Trump looks well positioned to win Iowa, although his challengers frequently point out that the state’s caucuses are known for dramatic shifts in support during the closing months of the campaign.

History also suggests coming in second or third can keep a candidate relevant, as the race moves to the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire, a more independent-leaning state with a tradition of reversing Iowa’s outcome.

The jockeying for second place in Iowa has intensified in recent days, especially between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, as the former president continues to benefit from a large field that has divided the non-Trump vote.

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Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie have trailed behind. Former vice-president Mike Pence, who announced on Saturday he was dropping out of the race, also failed to make a mark in Iowa.

An Iowa poll released on Monday showed Trump with the support of 43 per cent of likely GOP caucus attendees. He was followed by DeSantis and Haley, tied at 16 per cent, a drop of 3 percentage points for DeSantis since August and a 10-point jump for Haley. Scott was at 7 per cent, followed by Ramaswamy and Christie both at 4 per cent. Pence was at 2 per cent, down from 6 per cent in August.

Former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley at the Republican Jewish Coalition's Annual Leadership Summit in Las Vegas. Picture: Getty Images

The survey, the most closely watched poll in the state, is led by the Des Moines Register and had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. NBC News and Mediacom, Iowa’s largest cable provider, are also sponsors.

“We are just shuffling the bottom of the deck, but the dynamics of the race haven’t changed,” said Craig Robinson, a former Republican Party political director in Iowa. “At the end of the day, nobody is really emerging to beat Trump.”

Rich Schwarm, a former Iowa GOP state chairman, put it this way: “Most people believe that Trump is going to win comfortably, and the question is who can get second place, and can they narrow the margin enough to make it a fight in New Hampshire.”

DeSantis and Scott have put virtually all of their chips on Iowa and a finish outside the top three for either of them would almost certainly mean their support would wither. Haley has more adroitly managed her Iowa expectations and balanced her time and money between Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, home to the first primary in the South.

Some large-dollar donors looking for a Trump alternative have theorized that Haley, who has ticked up in recent state and national polls following two strong debate performances, could end up being his last serious challenger. They hope she can beat expectations in Iowa, show momentum in New Hampshire and finally beat him in her home state.

It is likely wishful thinking on their part, given Trump’s commanding polling lead. Still, her gaining strength has been enough to draw increasing attacks from both DeSantis and Trump, whose campaign sent a birdcage and bird food to her hotel room a day after he called her “Bird Brain”.

Some backers of Haley and other Trump foes also hold out hope that the former president’s avalanche of legal problems, including the prospect of multiple criminal trials in 2024, will eventually catch up to him and even potentially take him out of the race. So far, Trump’s indictments have prompted many GOP voters to rally around him.

The former president has made no effort to manage his Iowa expectations. “On Monday, Jan. 15, we are going to win the Iowa caucuses,” Trump said during a Sunday afternoon appearance at a historic theater here as fall started to pivot to winter.

Republican presidential candidate Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaks during the Republican Jewish Coalition's Annual Leadership Summit in Las Vegas at the weekend. Picture: Getty Images

While that level of braggadociousness from Trump isn’t unusual, it does mean that anything short of a blowout win in Iowa could raise questions for GOP voters in subsequent states.

Trump briefly criticized Haley at the rally, saying she is “highly overrated,” while also repeating his “Bird Brain” reference. But he aimed most of his criticism at DeSantis, saying the governor and his campaign are “like a wounded bird falling from the sky.”

Aides have said Trump is eager to win the Iowa caucuses, something he failed to do in 2016, when he was bested by Texas senator Ted Cruz. He is expected to make regular Iowa appearances in the final two months, and his campaign is significantly more organized in the state for voter turnout than in 2016.

Trump was initially confused Sunday about where he was, making a reference to Sioux Falls, a similarly named city about 80 miles north in South Dakota, before correcting himself several minutes later. The audience was heavy on residents from neighboring South Dakota, Minnesota and Nebraska who won’t be able to participate in the caucuses.

Ramaswamy has been nearly as bold as Trump in his predictions about Iowa, saying he will secure an outright victory or something close to it.

Jason Palmer, a lawyer who attended a Ramaswamy event in Des Moines on Saturday evening that featured an open bar, said he is still shopping for a GOP candidate because he is concerned about Trump’s ability to govern, if he were elected.

He is trying to decide between Ramaswamy, Haley and DeSantis, but suspects Trump will be the nominee “unless something happens with the criminal trials that takes him out of the race.”

Cindy Donohue Greer, a 65-year-old controller for an Iowa amusement park, drove more than two hours on snowy roads to Trump’s rally to see him for the first time in person. She has supported him since 2016.

Greer said she didn’t need to look at any of the other GOP candidates to make her decision to back Trump in the caucuses and predicted he will be even more unconventional if he wins the White House again. “He will be unleashed and not held back by re-election issues,” she said.

Asked if she thinks the race in Iowa is for second place after Trump, Greer said: “It has been for months.”

The Wall Street Journal