GOP prospects rise amid economic pessimism, WSJ poll finds

New survey shows GOP with an edge in mid-term voting enthusiasm as economic pessimism grows.

Joe Biden campaigns for Florida gubernatorial and Senate candidates Charlie Crist and Val Demings in Miami on Tuesday. Picture: AFP

Voters are giving Republicans a late boost in support just ahead of the mid-term elections, as pessimism about the economy and the direction of the country jump to their highest levels of the year, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds.

The survey, conducted about two weeks before election dayon November 8, suggests that abortion rights are less important in voting decisions than voters indicated in the summer, after the Supreme Court in June ended the federal constitutional right to abortion. Republicans have regained momentum since then and now hold a slight edge over Democrats, 46 per cent to 44 per cent, when voters are asked which party they would support in their congressional district if the election were held today.

“The focus on the economic stuff, particularly inflation, is helpful to the GOP headed into the final stretch,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster John Anzalone.

Mr Fabrizio said that voters who haven’t decided which party to back for congress show high levels of concern about the economy and “look more likely to break Republican than they do Democrat, if they vote.” While the two-point Republican lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, it also marks a meaningful improvement for the GOP since The Journal’s last survey, in August, when Democrats held a three-point advantage on which party voters would back for congress. Republican voters also show more enthusiasm to vote than do Democrats, the survey finds.

The shift in preference for the GOP comes as views of the economy have turned more dour than at any point in the past year. Only 19 per cent say the economy is headed in the right direction, down 11 points from August, while 71 per cent say the economy is on the wrong track.

Voters lack confidence in President Joe Biden’s economic leadership, with only 27 per cent saying his policies have had a positive impact on the economy and 54 per cent saying they have had a negative impact. A majority of voters — 55 per cent — disapprove of Mr Biden’s overall job performance, compared with 43 per cent who approve.

The GOP has seen a shift in its favour among several voter groups, including Latino voters and women, and particularly white suburban women. That group, which the pollsters said makes up 20 per cent of the electorate, shifted 26 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll and now favours the GOP by 15 points.

Mid-term elections are generally considered a referendum on the party in power, and Democrats control both chambers of congress and the White House.

Mr Anzalone said the most concerning matter for Democrats is that independent voters don’t trust the party to handle rising prices. Whichever party is in power, he said, finds that independent voters “break against the party when you have economic diagnostics like we’re seeing. End of story, done.” He added, “Voters trust the Republicans on that, right now. That’s tough sledding for us.”

Jennifer Hackworth is a stay-at-home mother of three from Cranberry Township, Pennslyvania, outside of Pittsburgh. She’s noticed her kids’ clothes getting more expensive, as well as rising prices for milk and other grocery staples. “The Dems have kind of proved that they haven’t been able to make a change with (inflation). It’s just gotten worse in the last couple of years,” said Ms. Hackworth.

Ms Hackworth, 39 years old, said she typically leans Republican but had considered voting for Democrat John Fetterman in the state’s hotly contested Senate race. While still undecided, she’s leaning toward the GOP’s Mehmet Oz, despite feeling more aligned on abortion rights with Mr Fetterman, who supports legalised abortion. “While I would want to support the right for a woman to choose, I also want to support our economy getting better, because it’s not right now,”

Ms Hackworth said, adding later: “Give the Republicans a chance in Congress. See what they can do.”

Some 48 per cent of voters said they thought congressional Republicans were best able to get inflation under control — the largest share in Journal polling this year. By comparison, 27 per cent said congressional Democrats were best able to rein in inflation. Democrats were viewed as the party best able to handle abortion policy, lower prescription drug prices and improve education.

In other signs of concern about the economy, 64 per cent of poll respondents said that inflation is rising and straining their finances, including 36 per cent who described those strains as major. Both figures are the highest in The Journal’s polling this year. Only 27 per cent of respondents rate the economy as excellent or good, down from 35 per cent in August.

Republicans say they are more motivated to vote than Democrats, the poll found. Some 68 per cent of Black voters and 64 per cent of Hispanic voters — groups that favour Democrats — rated themselves at the highest level of motivation to vote, far below the 83 per cent of white voters and 79 per cent of voters overall.

Survey participants also rated the GOP as the party best able to reduce crime. Republican admakers have flooded competitive House districts and Senate races with a barrage of attacks focused on voters’ increased fears about violent crime.

Ashley Smith, a supermarket worker in Brooklyn, said that crime is at the top of mind for her this year, in addition to the economy. Still, Ms Smith, a self-described liberal, said she was leaning toward backing Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul for re-election over her GOP challenger Lee Zeldin. That race has gotten unexpectedly competitive in recent weeks, with Mr Zeldin putting an emphasis on cutting crime in New York City.

“The crime is always going to be there. It’s New York,” said Ms. Smith. “It’s just a point of keeping it at a steady level so that we don’t have to feel terribly scared to walk outside.”

Ms Smith, 32, said that despite a spike in crime at a time when Democrats lead local government, she trusted Democrats more to address the issue and thought Mr. Zeldin was unlikely to come to New York City communities if elected governor.

Even though the mid-term elections haven’t concluded yet, both parties have started to think about who might be their standard-bearer in 2024. Mr. Biden has said he intends to run again; Donald Trump has teased another White House bid but hasn’t announced a decision.

The Journal poll found that a hypothetical 2024 rematch between Mr Biden and Mr Trump is tied, with each man drawing 46 per cent. In August, Mr Biden was ahead by 6 points.

The Wall Street Journal poll included 1500 registered voters, who were reached by phone and text from October 22-26.

The Wall Street Journal