Georgia’s battleground status signals changing electoral map in the south

Biden’s surprising lead over Trump in Georgia signals a changing political landscape in America’s south.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s surprising, narrow lead over President Trump in Georgia, where the two are neck-and-neck as the vote count winds down, signals a changing political landscape in a state and region that have been Republican strongholds for decades.

While a recount in Georgia is expected, its competitive status puts it among the ranks of a block of southern states that could change the presidential map in the future. North Carolina, which Mr. Trump currently holds with a slim margin, is also viewed now as a potential Democratic target following about a decade behind Virginia’s shift to becoming a blue state.

Florida, which backed former President Obama and then flipped to back Mr. Trump twice, has long been a presidential swing state, although it has been leaning red in state elections. Mr. Trump’s victory there on Tuesday is credited in part to his campaign’s outreach and messaging to the state’s diverse Hispanic population.

The Democrats’ emerging competitiveness in the South is also evident in Sunbelt states, where Arizona flipped from red to blue by backing Mr. Biden, with a narrow margin, following the continuing Democratic shifts in Nevada and the now reliably blue New Mexico.

Meanwhile, Republicans have been making inroads in the industrial Midwest. While Mr. Biden was able to recapture the Great Lakes region, Mr. Trump’s victories in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2016 provide a guide for future GOP candidates to try to break through what is called the “blue wall.” Ohio, which has a history of being competitive, has grown more solidly Republican in recent elections.

The changes in the South are driven largely by demographics, an influx of new residents from northern states who tend to support Democrats, as well as a growth in minority populations.

In November 2010, Georgia had about 5.8 million registered voters. By the 2016 election, the number had risen to more than 6.6 million, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office. By 2018, the number had shot up to 6.9 million; and this month, voter registration reached an all-time high of 7.5 million. Voter turnout this year was a record, approaching 5 million.

In 2010, white people represented more than 61% of all registered voters in Georgia. By 2020, white people made up about 53% of registered voters, while registrations among Black, Latino and Asian voters have boomed.

Minorities and younger people moving to the suburbs, many from northern cities, have “begun to really transform the political landscape” in metro Atlanta, said Kerwin Swint, a Kennesaw State University political-science professor.

Some Republicans say their party needs to respond to the shifting electoral map. The GOP leaders “really haven’t reached out in a way they need to and we are suffering for that now,” said Eric Tanenblatt, a longtime Georgia Republican strategist. “We’ve got to reach out beyond the traditional base.” In Texas and Florida, Republicans have tried to boost their appeal among minorities, particularly Latino voters, and strengthened their political standing.

The enduring nature of the partisan shift will be tested in January after Georgia’s two Republican senators failed to get the requisite 50% plus-one-vote required under state law to avoid a run-off race. Sen. David Perdue will square off with Democrat Jon Ossoff, while Sen. Kelly Loeffler will face Democrat Raphael Warnock in a Jan. 5 election that could decide control of the U.S. Senate, the Associated Press said Friday night.

Gwinnett county voters including Menar Hague (C) wave Biden-Harris campaign signs at the entrance to Lucky Shoals Park polling station in Norcross, Georgia. Picture: AFP

In Tuesday’s elections, the Democratic operation was unable to deliver a win for Mr. Ossoff, who underperformed Mr. Biden by roughly 100,000 votes on Election Day. That could mean that some people cast votes in the presidential and skipped the Senate race, or they switched to Mr. Perdue or the Libertarian candidate, who received 114,000 votes, or 2.3% of the ballots.

The Loeffler race was dubbed a “jungle” primary and featured 20 candidates, so the senator and Mr. Warnock both received significantly lower vote totals compared with the presidential candidates.

Beyond demographic shifts, Georgia Democrats’ competitiveness was driven by Stacey Abrams, the former minority leader in the Georgia House who narrowly lost in her bid to become the first Black, female governor in a 2018 race against Republican Brian Kemp.

“I have to give the credit for everything to Stacey,” said Bianca Keaton, a Democratic official in Atlanta’s suburbs who got her start working for Ms. Abrams. “It takes years, years, years to get where you want to go.” Though Ms. Abrams lost her only statewide race, she came closer than any Democratic gubernatorial candidate since 1998, in part because of her previous work to register more minority and younger voters, an effort she began after being elected a state representative in 2006.

She also backed lawsuits challenging how Georgia and its counties handle elections, a process she has long argued made it harder for minorities to register and vote. Republican officials strongly objected to such challenges, but ended up making numerous changes, including buying new high-tech voting machines, first used this year.

Ms. Abrams, 46, has national achieved prominence in recent years as a Democratic leader, appearing on television and in magazines, and delivering key speeches at party gatherings. She was considered briefly by the Biden campaign as a possible vice-presidential running mate.

Ms. Abrams declined to comment Friday after Mr. Biden advanced in Georgia. She did, however, take to Twitter, thanking activists in the state “who’ve been in the trenches and deserve the plaudits for change.” “My heart is full,” she wrote in another tweet.

She gained recognition by plotting a new comeback strategy for a state Democratic Party that was in decline after many election defeats.

In 2014, the Democrats tried to revive their competitiveness by turning to two candidates with famous names, Jason Carter, grandson of former President Carter, who ran for governor, and Michelle Nunn, daughter of former centrist Democratic Sen. Sam Nunn, who ran for Senate. Both raised tens of millions and campaigned aggressively, but were trounced in the elections.

Ms. Abrams chose a different path, focusing her efforts not on luring centrist and conservative white voters back to the party, but on bringing in minorities and other disaffected groups into the fold. Through various groups she helped establish, including the New Georgia Project founded in 2014, Ms. Abrams and her supporters have pushed to register hundreds of thousands of minority voters in Georgia.

Though Ms. Abrams lost her 2018 bid to become governor to Mr. Kemp, her campaign swept Democrats into state and local offices. In key parts of Atlanta’s suburbs that the GOP once considered home territory, it is now in full retreat. The collar counties around Atlanta were instrumental in giving Mr. Biden the lead in the presidential race, although a vote count will ultimately determine the winner of the state.

After her defeat, Ms. Abrams acknowledged Mr. Kemp had won, but never conceded, for which she faced criticism. Instead, she launched a new group, Fair Fight Action, focused on making technical changes in the election processes in Georgia and beyond that were aimed at making it easier for minorities to cast their votes and for officials to count them.

The group has given Ms. Abrams — who now holds no elected office — a platform by which to press for more election changes and efforts by Democrats to bring in disenchanted voters, especially among minority groups. She is considered a likely candidate in 2022 to run against Mr. Kemp again for governor.

Gwinnett County, a suburban area northeast of Atlanta with about 935,000 residents, tells the story.

Gwinnett was dominated by Republicans for decades, and hadn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. Despite that, Ms. Abrams’s supporters began registration drives there among minorities. In 2016, the county voted for Hillary Clinton. In 2018, Ms. Abrams carried the county in the governor’s race, and Democrats gained various local and state offices. Mr. Biden won Gwinnett in Tuesday’s election.

Ms. Keaton, who is the first Black woman to lead the county party, said that when she first became chairwoman, it was tough to find volunteers. “This year, we had folks coming out the wazoo,” she said.

Ms. Keaton added that Georgia, still with many conservative voters, hasn’t suddenly morphed into a blue state. She expects a prolonged struggle between the two parties for some time to come.

Still, Nikema Williams, who was the first Black woman to chair the state Democratic Party and was just elected to Congress for the district once held by the late Rep. John Lewis, said: “We are a real battleground now, because of the work we have done on the ground and the infrastructure we have built.” Write to Cameron McWhirter at [e-mail] The Wall Street Journal