Don’t count Ron DeSantis out
The DeSantis ship is clearly listing and must right itself. I wouldn’t normally give advice to a Republican candidate, but someone has to stop Donald Trump from regaining the presidency, and I wouldn’t count on President Biden to do it given his low job-approval rating and widespread doubts about his fitness. Mr Trump leads Mr Biden in the RealClearPolitics polling average. A Trump-Biden rematch is a risky proposition, and with the Democrats consolidated around Mr Biden, the only way to avoid it is through the Republican primary.
To get back in the game, Mr DeSantis has to put cultural issues to the side and run on character, competence and common sense. He has the strong character of a family man who cares for his wife, a cancer survivor; the energetic competence of an accomplished governor; and the common sense to campaign on such issues as a balanced budget, a workable immigration system, crime policies that target criminals and improve policing, and programs that reduce the size of government. The major issues facing the country, according to Mr DeSantis’s supporters in the latest Harvard/CAPS Harris poll, are inflation (36 per cent), immigration (29 per cent), and the economy and jobs (28 per cent). Eighty-one per cent of all voters back a plan to balance the budget, including majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents. This could be the cornerstone of a smart economic plan.
Challenger presidential campaigns always have at least one near-death experience, so a dip isn’t unusual. Mr DeSantis has been swinging for social conservatives, which has alienated centrist and liberal voters while failing to take any voters from Mr Trump. Conservative Republicans have, in the face of Mr Trump’s indictment, rallied behind the former president.
How long this supports lasts or how it might hold up in the event of other indictments isn’t clear, but Mr Trump definitely has gained strength in recent weeks.
For Mr DeSantis to make progress, he has to realise he can’t get the “ultra-MAGA” voters that are Mr Trump’s base and should go instead after more-moderate voters who are looking for someone who can cure the economy and stand up for their interests. While his attacks on Disney are popular among some, and a six-week abortion ban plays to part of the Republican base, these positions have damaged Mr DeSantis’s chances at courting the middle. As with Mr Biden in 2020, the core of the DeSantis argument is that he is more electable than Mr Trump because he can attract the votes of moderate suburban women and Latinos. The more rightward Mr DeSantis shifts, the more he loses primary support. There are plenty of moderates among Republican primary voters. They nominated John McCain and Mitt Romney, after all.
Older, suburban and educated Republicans have the greatest potential to become DeSantis voters, according to the Harris poll. Most aren’t ready to vote for Mr DeSantis yet, but they still regard him more favourably than Mr Trump. While more voters in every age group would vote for Mr Trump, Mr DeSantis has a 19-point favorability edge among those over 50. The same kind of pattern is true of education: Mr Trump dominates those without college degrees but among graduates, Mr DeSantis has a favorability advantage that is 23 points larger. And in the suburbs, while a slim majority of voters would pick Mr Trump, Mr DeSantis’s net favorability is 15 points more.
Clearly Mr Trump knows Mr DeSantis is winning older voters and has decided that hitting the governor on Social Security can erode his base. Mr DeSantis has to defend himself and prove that Mr Trump is a big spender who will drive more inflation and increase the national debt, and that he fumbled the Covid-19 response by pushing lockdowns.
Swayable Republican voters are internationalists, not isolationists. Mr DeSantis’s recent characterisation of the Ukraine war as a “territorial dispute” landed badly, prompting him to walk it back quickly. According to the Harris poll, DeSantis supporters back Ukraine more than Trump supporters do. Fifty-eight per cent of DeSantis supporters consider the US investment of more than $US27billion in Ukraine to be justified.
There will be many twists and turns in this race, and Senator Tim Scott could become the consensus moderate Republican choice if Mr DeSantis fails to get back on track. The governor needs to shift from being the king of antiwoke pro-lifers to a responsible leader of character and competence who can fix the budget and right the economy. If he doesn’t, he will soon end up on the wannabe-challenger list.
Mark Penn was a pollster and adviser to Bill and Hillary Clinton, 1995-2008. He is chairman of the Harris Poll and CEO of Stagwell Inc.
The Wall Street Journal
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Can Ron DeSantis beat Donald Trump? In the game of presidential politics, well-known frontrunners often falter and up-and-comers often win — Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton, and Jimmy Carter came from nowhere to beat establishment figures such as Mo Udall and Henry ‘Scoop’ Jackson. When Mr Trump was the challenger, he polished off Jeb Bush, the Florida governor who once led the pack.