Donald Trump surprises and sidelines Israel ahead of landmark Middle East trip

Donald Trump won’t visit Israel in his trip to the region, while a series of announcements, including the release of US-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander have surprised the Israelis.

As President Trump takes his first trip to the Middle East after getting re-elected, he’s planning on skipping over America’s closest ally in the region: Israel.

It follows a series of announcements by the Trump administration that either sidelined or surprised the Israelis, raising questions in Israel about whether the two sides are fully in sync on some of the biggest challenges in the region.

On Monday, a deal between the US and Hamas released the last remaining living American hostage in Gaza, Edan Alexander, after more than 18 months in captivity. The deal brought mixed feelings in Israel, which has long feared that the US would separately negotiate to release its citizens at the expense of other hostages in the enclave.

On the left, some Israelis felt it showed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasn’t doing enough to free hostages. On the right, there were fears that Netanyahu would cave to US pressure to ink a broader deal that would end the war before Israel had decisively defeated Hamas.

That side deal came after the Israelis were surprised by Trump’s decision to end a seven-week air campaign against the Yemen-based Houthi rebels in a truce without a requirement for the Houthis to stop attacking Israel. The sting was sharpened by its timing, just hours after a Houthi missile struck the grounds of Israel’s main airport.

The surprise followed the US’s decision to enter direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and put on the back burner Israeli hopes for a green light to strike. Trump on Wednesday said that he hasn’t decided whether Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium under a new nuclear deal, signalling that the White House might be flexible on a central issue in the talks.

Edan Alexander holds a sign saying "Thankyou President Trump" after his release from Hamas captivity. Picture: IDF.

Donald Trump is sidelining Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israel also failed to avoid Trump’s global tariff regime, getting slapped with a 17% duty on products exported to the US, despite saying it would scrap levies on American goods.

Put together, Trump’s attitude toward Israel is far tougher than many Israelis had expected, turning the president from one of Israel’s strongest allies in the first term to a more unexpected variable in the second.

It also reflects the growing strength of an America First wing within the Republican party and Trump’s prioritisation of economic wins as he sets out to remake America’s global trade relationships.

“When Israelis thought of a second President Trump, what they had in mind was the first presidency,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based think tank.

But now, “I wouldn’t say it is the end of the honeymoon, but there is a very clear-eyed understanding that President Trump isn’t Israel’s prime minister, but the president of the US,” Plesner said.

Trump’s ambassador to Jerusalem, Mike Huckabee, underscored that point in a Friday press conference. “The US doesn’t have to tell Israel everything that it is going to do,” Huckabee said, saying that Israel has the same sovereign right.

Netanyahu has aligned himself with the Republican Party for years, making it harder for him to pressure or work against Trump the way he did with Democrats during President Joe Biden’s time in office.

Amid the shake-ups, Netanyahu’s confidant, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, flew to the US for meetings with administration officials last week to feel out exactly where Israel stands with its biggest supporter. Following the meetings, Israeli officials believe they are still aligned with the US on Iran nuclear negotiations and on Gaza ceasefire negotiations, and on their understanding that Trump wants a deal for Gaza, but not at the expense of Hamas staying in power, an Israeli official said.

“The relationship is fine. Not lock-step, but in a tango partners sometimes step on each other’s toes,” said the official.

Edan Alexander with his Hamas captors and a Red Cross worker. Picture; Supplied.

Most of Israelis polled ahead of Trump’s November election thought he would be more supportive of Israel’s interests than Kamala Harris – some 65% to 13%, according to the Israel Democracy Institute. In the months since he took office, Trump systematically reversed moves by the Biden administration to pressure Israel, including rolling back sanctions against Israeli settlers in the West Bank and releasing frozen arms sales. He also bolstered American military presence in the region by directing a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East.

Nor has Trump put serious pressure on Israel to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. In the 10 weeks since Israel shut off aid to Gaza, Trump administration officials haven’t pressed the Israelis to open up the spigot, according to a person briefed on the discussions.

But there is a growing feeling that the Trump administration is disassociating its interests from Israel’s in the region, said Yoel Guzansky, a former Gulf expert for Israel’s National Security Council and now at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies.

“The US is working on a different script in the region, it doesn’t necessarily contain Israel,” said Guzansky.

An important factor is Trump’s desire to secure an economic or diplomatic win that would reflect his goal of ending wars while improving the US’s own strategic position in the world. “The relevant dynamic is Trump really wants wins in this arena, and the competition is kind of who can deliver him a win” in the Middle East, said Heather Hurlburt, an associate fellow at Chatham House.

Some of Trump’s senior deputies, notably Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have isolationist views, while other advisers are strong supporters of Israel.

“That tension in the coalition was always there,” Hurlburt said. “There is this element of the America First movement that is profoundly unsympathetic to Israel at a really deep level.” And Israelis are beginning to notice.

By April, another Israel Democracy Institute survey found people were divided as to whether they thought Trump would place Israel’s security as one of his main considerations in talks with Iran. Some 46% of Israelis thought it would be a major issue, with 44% thinking it would be a minor one.

“I think there is genuine concern here,” said Michael Oren, a former Israeli envoy to the United States. “I don’t know how much of it is justified.”

The Wall St Journal