Donald Trump hush money verdict is set to shape a summer of presidential politics
An acquittal, or even a hung jury, could be a career-defining moment for Trump, who likely would cast himself as having vanquished an improper political prosecution.
A jury of five women and seven men in Donald Trump’s hush-money trial is expected to begin this week the historic task of deciding whether to convict a former president, a verdict that could set the tone for an election year that has already turned off many voters.
Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, so far has emerged largely unscathed from his trial on 34 felony charges.
But a conviction would be an ignominious first for a former president, threatening Trump’s standing with some voters and handing President Biden new ammunition to portray his rival as unfit for office.
An acquittal — or even a hung jury — could be a career-defining moment for Trump, who likely would cast himself as having vanquished an improper political prosecution.
“The trial has just reaffirmed everyone’s opinion of Trump. His supporters see a rigged system, while his opponents focus on his moral shortcomings,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist in Washington. “So far the trial is just background noise for voters, but if the noise gets loud enough, people will notice.”
The 12 jurors deciding Trump’s fate include an investment banker, physical therapist, teacher and two lawyers. Their closed-door deliberations will come after more than a month of testimony in the first and perhaps only trial Trump will face before the election.
Three other prosecutions of Trump, one in Georgia and two at the federal level, are facing legal hurdles and procedural delays.
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat, brought the hush-money case. His prosecutors have argued that Trump falsified business records to cover up a payment to porn star Stormy Daniels, who alleged an affair with the former president, on the eve of the 2016 election.
The bogus records, prosecutors allege, constitute a felony because they were intended to conceal an unlawful effort by Trump and others to boost his electoral prospects by removing negative stories from the market.
Trump denies the affair, and his lawyers have told jurors that seeking to sway voters is legal. The former president, who was in the White House at the time of the alleged false records, had no role in their creation, they said.
Justice Juan Merchan, who is presiding over the case, has scheduled closing arguments for Tuesday. He plans to instruct jurors Wednesday, then send them off to deliberate.
Whatever the jury’s verdict, Trump’s advisers say his post-trial schedule likely won’t change much immediately. He is expected to continue to attend a couple of campaign events a week, though he will have more freedom to travel to battleground states without being required to sit in court.
During a fundraising dinner Wednesday in Dallas, part of a $15 million day for the campaign, Trump noted that some commentators think the hush-money case and other prosecutions have helped him politically. Guests received packets of the latest polling showing Trump in the lead, according to a person who attended.
Trump’s fundraising shot up during the trial, while Biden continues to face economic headwinds and is struggling with non-white and young voters. Trump sought to emphasise that Thursday by holding a rally in the Bronx, a Democratic stronghold, that drew a large crowd.
The former president alluded to the trial and his broader legal issues briefly in an appearance at the Libertarian National Convention on Saturday night.
“If I wasn’t a libertarian before, I sure as hell am a libertarian now,” he said during remarks that drew a mix of cheers from supporters and repeated boos from some parts of the audience.
Trump jabbed at the group as the booing continued, saying it should back him or remain a minor player. “Keep getting your 3% every four years,” he said.
A Biden official said the president’s team sees Trump’s post-trial return to the campaign trail as a positive development, believing it will provide a contrast for many voters who are not familiar with some of Trump’s recent remarks, including authoritarian rhetoric and pledges to close the southern U.S. border and increase oil drilling. The official said no final decisions had been made on how Biden might react to the outcome of the trial.
At the courthouse, Trump has had all the media exposure he could hope for, with television cameras fixed on him as he rails against the case and weighs in on issues of the day, including stubborn inflation dogging Biden. New York court rules don’t allow the trial to be televised, sparing Trump the embarrassment of live coverage of Daniels’s at times graphic testimony.
To find Trump guilty, jurors will need to be unanimous. If he is convicted, the judge would schedule a sentencing hearing as soon as several weeks later. Because the offences in question carry no minimum prison term, Merchan would have significant discretion in determining any punishment for Trump, which could include a fine, probation or a jail sentence.
Trump almost certainly would appeal any conviction.
Among people who identified as Trump voters, 6% say a conviction would make them less likely to vote for him, while 24% said it would make them more likely and 68% said it wouldn’t make a difference, according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll.
“Will a conviction sink Trump? The vast majority of his supporters say it would be no big deal,” polling analyst Tim Malloy said in announcing the results. “But in an extremely tight race, that 6% could tip the balance.”
An acquittal could give Trump new political momentum. It is possible a hung jury would, too. In that circumstance, prosecutors — who have faced criticism about the strength of the case — would have to decide whether to try Trump again. Any retrial at minimum would likely be months away.
Trump has previously questioned whether the New York jury would give him a fair shake, prompting Merchan to find for a 10th time that he violated a gag order that bars the former president from attacking jurors and others.
The names of jurors and their political affiliations aren’t publicly known. Unless jurors choose to speak after the verdict, the public won’t know how they reached their conclusion.
Some trial observers believe the deep blue jury pool could be a disadvantage for Trump in a case where the evidence may be viewed as equivocal.
“These people have to return to their spouses and partners and friends and family,” said Renato Stabile, a lawyer and jury consultant who has observed hundreds of mock jury deliberations. “I’m just not sure they will be able to vote not guilty and face them.” Others said the panellists would likely set politics aside.
“Something goes on in that room that is a dynamic unto itself,” said white-collar defence attorney Thomas Curran. “People in Manhattan do not take the obligation to convict someone lightly. They do it soberly and carefully and they do it together.”
– Ken Thomas contributed to this article.
The Wall Street Journal
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