Democrats start to panic about Biden

Joe Biden could leave office as a Democratic Party hero who saved the country from a second Trump term. Picture: AFP

This is the season of Democratic discontent, as the party and its media friends fret about President Biden’s low standing in the polls. The questions to ask are what took them so long, and what are they going to do about it?

The latest panic comes amid polls showing that Mr. Biden’s job approval is 42% or so. Despite White House cheerleading about Bidenomics, voters give Mr. Biden little credit. He’s tied with Donald Trump in a 2024 matchup, which shows how weak Mr. Biden is for an incumbent with a growing economy.

The party freakout is on display. James Carville and Jim Messina, veterans of winning Democratic campaigns, are chiding the party’s “bedwetters.” But some in the media are saying Mr. Biden should announce he won’t run for a second term. He could leave office as a Democratic hero who saved the country from a second Trump term, say he accomplished a lot by progressive lights, and let the party nominate someone from the next generation.

Yet no Democrat of stature has been willing to say this publicly, much less challenge Mr. Biden in the primaries. For months we’ve asked Democrats who visit us why no one is challenging Mr. Biden given his unpopularity. Their answer boils down to confidence that Mr. Trump will be the Republican nominee, that he’s the easiest Republican to beat, that Mr. Biden has done it once, and that a primary challenge would be more divisive than it’s worth.

Perhaps that will prove to be right, but what a gamble it is. Consider Mr. Biden’s manifest political liabilities:

• His age and decline. The press has tried to cover for Mr. Biden, but voters trust their own eyes. Some 73% of registered voters in the latest Wall Street Journal poll say Mr. Biden is too old to run for President. Mr. Biden turns 81 in two months, and aging can accelerate at any moment. The White House will attempt to repeat a Rose Garden version of the 2020 Wilmington basement strategy, but it may not work.

• Vice President Kamala Harris. Mr. Biden chose her as his running mate in 2020 to meet his party’s identity politics demands. But it has backfired as she has shown little capacity to be Commander in Chief and is often embarrassing in interviews. Everyone knows a vote for Mr. Biden in 2024 is probably a vote for President Harris, and Republicans will make the point through Election Day if she stays on the ticket.

• Hunter Biden and the family business. House Republicans have already exposed enough details to confirm the President’s son’s use of the Biden name—“the brand,” as business partner Devon Archer put it—to enrich the family. The press can say there’s no evidence that Joe Biden received a cheque, but Democrats don’t know what remains to be uncovered.

Mr. Trump will be relentless in prosecuting all of this politically, and the danger for Democrats is that the Biden family influence-peddling will end up neutralizing Mr. Trump’s indictments as a liability. That’s what he did to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

• The economy. The economy has rebounded this year, and third-quarter growth has been strong, but a slowdown is expected in the months ahead. Despite falling inflation, real incomes are still a long way from recovering from the price increases of the last 30 months. If unemployment rises to 5% or 6%, there will be political damage to Democrats and not much ability to counter it.

• The spreading migrant mess. Has there ever been a bigger self-inflicted policy wound than the Biden Administration’s refusal to deter and stop the migrant flood at the U.S.-Mexico border? Mr. Biden refuses to challenge his progressive base on asylum law, and the damage has spread far and wide. Elected Democratic officials are crying for help. Former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, a Biden supporter, is warning Democrats that this will damage the party in 2024 if they don’t act.

There are other potential dangers, not least from adversaries abroad. Russia, China and Iran might all seek to exploit U.S. election-year divisions. But there are already enough political risks to justify Democratic alarm.

Democrats may be right that Mr. Trump will be their salvation again, as he has been in every election since 2016. But if they stick with the Biden-Harris ticket, and wake up on the day after the election to discover Mr. Trump has repeated his 2016 miracle, don’t blame Republicans. Democrats will have made an equally decisive contribution.

The Wall Street Journal