Democratic politicos and their media allies have offered illuminating and sometimes entertaining explanations for last week’s Republican sweep in Virginia and Democratic Governor Phil Murphy’s political near-death experience in New Jersey.
Some blamed the party’s failure to get things done despite total control of Washington for dispiriting the party’s base. New Jersey’s Representative Josh Gottheimer said Democrats didn’t show voters “we can get our priorities across the finish line.” But if so, why did each Democratic gubernatorial nominee get more votes than any previous candidate for the office?
Perhaps the problem is that Republicans and independents were energised much more by what Democrats promised to do and by the belief that President Biden is mishandling inflation, spending, Covid, immigration, Afghanistan and other issues. Democrats should worry about the growing perception that the administration is incompetent.Other Democrats claimed the failure to pass their multi-trillion-dollar welfare-state expansion robbed candidates of powerful talking points.
“The Democratic agenda is popular with swing voters and new Biden voters,” argued Guy Cecil, head of the party’s Senate super PAC, in sharing a survey of eight states with key Senate races next year.
But even though Mr Biden won swing voters by 8 points in those states last year, Mr Cecil’s poll showed the generic ballot is now 36% Democrat and 41% Republican. This suggests the Democratic agenda is unpopular, especially with independents.
The Build Back Better bill is already viewed unfavourably. A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll found 30% of respondents said the measure would hurt them, while 26% reported it would help and 31% said it would have no effect. It’s likely to become more unpopular. The gimmicks used to hide its price tag and the pay-offs, such as the costly SALT (state and local tax) deduction, demanded by Democratic members from high-tax states will make it even less appealing. Consider its $38 billion in energy taxes over the next decade. Will higher gasoline prices make people more eager to vote Democrat?
Another explanation disaster is that Democrats did a poor job of communicating. An endangered House freshman, Representative Susan Wild (D., Pa.), complained Democrats aren’t “particularly good self-promoters.” It’s true Democrats’ messaging is a problem, but it’s the content, not the delivery. Democrats aren’t talking about issues that worry many ordinary Americans, such as higher prices, who’ll pay for all this federal spending, the mess at the southern border, and what’s happening in their kids’ schools.
In reality, Democrats communicated their values and priorities this fall pretty clearly. Voters just didn’t like what they were selling.
Not surprisingly, progressives blamed the defeat on the party’s failure to offer a more aggressive left-wing agenda, with several ultraleft groups criticising the party’s “milquetoast campaign.” Will giving voters more of what they rejected last week cause a different outcome? My advice to Democrats: Please try it.
Progressive cable TV voices blamed defeat on citizens’ bigotry, saying the GOP won because of appeals to “white nationalism” and “dog-whistle racism.” Some strategists now advise Democrats to base their 2022 campaigns on this assumption by telling voters that “powerful elites and special interests use race as a tool of division to distract hardworking people of all races while they get robbed blind.”
It’s bad enough to call swing voters bigots for being concerned that their children are being taught that America is an irredeemably racist country. Calling them stupid for falling for so-called racist appeals only compounds the mistake.
Democrats predictably tried making the election about Donald Trump, but the unpopular current president was much more important than the unpopular former president. To keep it that way, Republicans in 2022 would be wise to follow Virginia’s Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin’s example and keep Mr Trump out of their campaigns.
The GOP shouldn’t count on Democrats to make next year’s midterm elections easy. Republicans must continue forcing Democrats to answer for the extreme views of their party’s progressive wing, as the GOP has done with “defund the police” and “abolish ICE” and is doing now with critical race theory. Republicans also need to offer a common-sense critique of the Biden agenda and match it with a positive, common-sense conservative agenda. If they do, the GOP will both stop the Democratic attempt to shove the country to the left and help bring about their own party’s resurgence.
Mr Rove helped organise the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
The Wall Street Journal
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