Covid-19 case rises in the US with limited impact
Hospitalisations are climbing, but with comparatively fewer severe cases or fresh mitigation efforts.
As new Omicron variants further infiltrate the US, a jumble of signals suggest the latest increase in Covid-19 infections hasn’t sparked a commensurate surge in severe illness even as risks remain.
Covid-19 virus levels detected in wastewater in the northeast, the first region to see significant concentrations of the easily transmitted Omicron BA. 2 variant, appear to have flattened out in the past two weeks. Covid-19 hospital admissions have risen in the region, but they remain far below levels during earlier surges that indicated widespread severe illness and taxed healthcare facilities.
“This wave of Covid in the United States, in the places where it is, is not dangerous in a way that prior waves of Covid were,” said Megan Ranney, an emergency physician and dean at Brown University’s School of Public Health in Providence Rhode Island.
The fast-mutating virus still poses risks, she said.
New York State is a hotspot for rising cases from another, even more easily spread version known as BA. 2.12.1. Wastewater levels nationwide have tripled since mid-March, according to data from Biobot Analytics, though they pale in comparison to readings during the Omicron surge.
Counts of new cases, though poorly tracked partly because so many people are now testing at home, are still increasing. Cases have risen to a seven-day moving average above 55,000 a day, according to Johns Hopkins University, double the averages from early April.
Hospitalisations, though muted, are edging higher and often lag behind case counts. The seven-day rolling average for confirmed and suspected Covid hospitalisation recently topped 17,100, up from an all-time post-surge low of about 14,770 in mid-April. It is also a fraction of the more than 159,000 patients during the Omicron surge.
Epidemiologists say the US may have gained at least some temporary protection from the record-breaking wintertime surge triggered by an earlier version of Omicron in combination with protection from Covid-19 vaccines. The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention estimated last week that the proportion of people in the US with infection-induced antibodies jumped from 34 per cent in December to 58 per cent in February. CDC director Rochelle Walensky said last week that built-up protection from Covid-19 vaccines and prior infection is likely to be why hospitalisation are relatively muted so far.
The protective benefits of the Omicron surge came with a price, including a peak in early February above 2500 newly reported Covid-19 deaths a day. Most recently the US has averaged about 350 reported deaths a day.
The CDC said New York is home to the 37 out of 54 US counties that have high levels of Covid-19 community transmission. The BA. 2.12.1 version that has been spreading there has a growth advantage of about 25 per cent over the Omicron BA. 2 variant. Officials in the state have been reluctant to reimpose mask mandates.
“If our medical infrastructure is not in peril, it’s not an emergency,” said Onondaga County executive Ryan McMahon, a Republican whose county includes the city of Syracuse.
Federal officials and the CDC’s risk assessments are also moving to a place where they are more sharply focusing on hospitalisation, while still considering cases to some degree.
“The goal of our policies should be, obviously, minimise infections whenever possible, but to make sure that people don’t get seriously ill,” White House Covid-19 response co-ordinator Ashish Jha said last week.
Mild infections can sometimes cause longer-term symptoms and complications, some public health experts say, and unmitigated spread increases the risk that the virus will mutate into something more sinister.
The more transmission could be interrupted, the better for everyone, said Daniel Parker, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the University of California Irvine. He said caution was warranted, even though recent increases appear to be more of a bump than a major wave. “We’re transitioning in how we’re dealing with the pandemic,” he said. “I hope that we’ll be nimble.”
The Wall Street Journal
US aid helps global health, education – and allies’ might
The Trump administration has largely dismantled USAID and brought American assistance to a near-halt.
This round of tariffs won’t be averted by phone calls
As well as punitive and structural tariffs there is another use: Donald Trump has floated across-the-board tariffs on virtually all imports as a tool to raise revenue and help offset tax cuts.