Coronavirus: Coronavirus may give Donald Trump an edge
President Trump’s detractors profess to be mystified at the way he plays down the threat of the novel coronavirus, comparing it to the “sniffles” and refusing to wear a mask in public. Liberals accuse him of pandering to libertarians, putting on a macho front, or denying science. Could it be his secret to re-election?
Political polarisation around the coronavirus could turn out to be a game changer in a race likely to turn on which party is most successful at getting its base to the polls. That’s especially true if the dreaded second wave is cresting by November 3.
Who will turn out in greater numbers to stand in long, socially distanced lines outside voting stations — Republicans, who are relatively unconcerned, or Democrats, terrified that going outdoors could kill them? A Pew Research Center poll from late June found that 61% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believed “the worst” of the coronavirus crisis “is behind us,” compared with 38% who thought the worst is yet to come. Among Democrats, only 23 per cent thought it was mostly behind us; 76% said the worst is still to come.
Republicans were much less worried (45 per cent very or somewhat concerned) than Democrats (77 per cent) about unknowingly spreading COVID-19 to others. GOP voters are much more willing to mix and mingle with other people than Democrats, whether it’s attending an indoor sporting event or concert (40 per cent vs 11 per cent) or dining at a restaurant (65 per cent vs 28 per cent).
Pew didn’t ask about voting — or about protesting, a popular activity on the left. But many of those who took to the streets after George Floyd’s killing are Bernie Sanders voters, who distrust Joe Biden.
Which points to another problem for him: There’s also a big enthusiasm gap, which works in the president’s favour, between Biden and Trump voters. To be sure, unlike in 2016, the Democratic nominee is far less widely disliked than Mr Trump. But a June USA Today poll found that “half of Trump backers say they are ‘very excited’ about their candidate, almost double the 27 per cent of Biden backers who say that.”
Though the young black Americans who turn up at Black Lives Matter rallies overwhelmingly favour Mr Biden over Mr Trump, they’re even less excited about the Democrat than voters overall. “Despite the overwhelming support he enjoys, Biden faces clear challenges in mobilising younger black adults,” a Washington Post poll found. “This is a group that strongly disapproves of Trump but is also notably less enthusiastic about voting at all and is generally more critical of Biden than are older black adults. While 87 per cent of black seniors say Biden is sympathetic to the problems of black people in America, that drops to 66 per cent among those under age 40.”
If you’re a Democrat, you’re probably voting against Mr Trump rather than for Mr Biden. You’re probably not thrilled about it. Add fear of the virus and you might decide to skip voting entirely.
This week’s Fox News poll tested that last proposition directly. It found Mr Biden leading Mr Trump overall, 49 per cent to 41 per cent, among registered voters. “However, the number of Biden supporters who are extremely likely to vote drops 25 points if the virus is hitting so hard in November as to, for instance, close restaurants. Because the drop-off would just be 16 points among Trump supporters, that puts Biden’s lead at just 3 points over the president in that still-raging coronavirus scenario.”
Mr Trump’s suggestions that Covid is no big deal mitigates the main reason his voters might otherwise stay home. Democrats’ emphasis on the danger may end up suppressing their own votes.
Ted Rall is a political cartoonist and author of “Francis: The People’s Pope,” the latest in a series of graphic-novel biographies.
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