Control of US Senate hinges on Georgia results

The fight for control of the Senate is centred on Georgia, where the state’s close election has pushed at least one, and possibly two, of its Senate races to January 5 runoffs.

Democratic US Senate candidate Jon Ossoff.

The fight for control of the US Senate now is centred on Georgia, where the state’s close election has pushed at least one, and possibly two, of its Senate races to January 5 runoffs.

The outcome of those two races could shift the balance of power in the Senate, as Democrat Jon Ossoff tries to unseat Republican Senator David Perdue, and Democrat Raphael Warnock faces off against Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler. Messrs. Ossoff and Warnock have been sharply critical of Mr Trump, while Mr Perdue and Ms Loeffler have closely allied themselves with the president.

Under Georgia law, if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent, the two top vote-getters, regardless of party, compete in a runoff to be held in this cycle on January 5, 2021.

The Warnock-Loeffler race already is headed for a runoff, as the Associated Press projected. In the other race, Mr Perdue’s share of the vote was just shy of 50 per cent, with about 60,000 votes still to be counted. Mr Ossoff was at 47.7 per cent.

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Gabriel Sterling, the voting-system manager with the Georgia secretary of state’s office, said that counting those ballots might continue into Thursday evening.

Coming into Election Day, Republicans had a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Based on results so far nationwide, Republicans will control 48 seats next year, and they lead in two other states — North Carolina and Alaska. Democrats so far have locked down 48 seats, leaving the two Georgia races as their best hopes to reach 50.

If Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the White House, vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris would cast a tiebreaking vote when needed.

Democrats have picked up two Senate seats currently held by Republicans, with AP projecting wins for former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper in Colorado and former astronaut Mark Kelly in Arizona. But Democrats lost one seat in Alabama to Republican Tommy Tuberville, a former football coach, leaving Democrats with a net gain of only one seat.

Democrats’ path to a Senate majority significantly narrowed on Wednesday, when Democrat Sara Gideon conceded to GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine. Another top Democratic target, Iowa’s Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, successfully fended off businesswoman Theresa Greenfield.

In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is leading Democrat Cal Cunningham with all precincts reporting. But the deadline for accepting mail-in ballots is November 12, making the final tally uncertain. About 117,000 voters who requested an absentee ballot haven’t voted, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, though that number doesn’t yet account for voters who cast their ballot on Tuesday.

In Alaska, Republican Dan Sullivan is ahead and expected to win, although the state’s schedule for counting absentee ballots could delay the result.

Democratic challengers also fell short in competitive Senate races traditionally red states — Montana, Texas, South Carolina and Kansas — where they had been hoping for upset victories.

Because of the 50 per cent threshold in Georgia, strategists working on Senate races for both parties had been bracing for weeks for the possibility of runoffs in both races that could determine control of the Senate.

The scenario underscores the shifting political landscape in Georgia, where the GOP has dominated state politics since the early 2000s, but the Democratic Party has revived in recent years, as the state’s population has grown and changed, with an influx of younger people and minorities, many coming from the North.

In 2018, the US Census Bureau estimated the state’s population grew to 10.5 million, from 9.7 million in 2010. During the same period, the percentage of blacks in the state rose to 32.2 per cent of the total population, from 30.5 per cent. The Hispanic and Asian populations also jumped in number and percentage.

Today Republican Brian Kemp is governor, Republicans hold every statewide office and the party controls both chambers of the legislature. But elections have gotten tighter in the state in recent years.

In 2016, Mr Trump won Georgia by 5 percentage points, but Democrat Hillary Clinton carried key suburban Atlanta counties that were longtime Republican strongholds. In 2018, Stacey Abrams received nearly 49 per cent of the vote compared with just over 50 per cent for Mr Kemp — the strongest showing by a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Georgia since 1998.

Mr Kemp appointed Ms Loeffler, a wealthy businesswoman and GOP donor, in December to finish the term of retiring GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson. Mr Warnock, a pastor at historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, has been endorsed by former President Barack Obama.

Mr Perdue, a former chief executive of Dollar General Corp., was elected to the Senate in 2014. Mr Ossoff, a documentary producer who has never held elected office, lost a runoff in a high-profile congressional race to Republican Karen Handel in the Atlanta suburbs in 2017. That was the most expensive US House race in history at the time. Given the stakes, any Senate runoffs in Georgia are expected to attract massive spending and get-out-the vote efforts from both parties as they wrestle for control of the chamber.

Perdue for Senate campaign manager Ben Fry expressed confidence in a statement on Thursday that Mr Perdue would be re-elected and Republicans would preserve their majority. “There’s only one candidate in this race who has ever lost a runoff, and it isn’t David Perdue,” he said.

Ossoff campaign manager Ellen Foster said in a statement that the votes are still being counted, but she believes Mr Ossoff’s performance in Georgia would force a runoff that the Democrat could win.

“When a runoff is called and held in January, Georgians are going to send Jon to the Senate to defend their health care and put the interests of working families and small businesses ahead of corporate lobbyists,” Ms Foster said.

With Alexa Corse and Michelle Hackman

The Wall Street Journal