Bold Houthi attacks give Joe Biden stark choices
Concerns grow that the Iran-backed militants in the Red Sea could further inflame Mideast conflict as they destabilise global shipping.
A cargo ship is at risk this week of sinking in the Gulf of Aden after being hit by Yemen-based Houthis in the most significant strike since the Iran-backed group started launching attacks last fall in a crucial shipping lane to disrupt global commerce.
The increasingly audacious attacks come despite weeks of US air strikes and highlight the challenges of deterring the group, which is seeking to transform itself from a marginal player among Iran-aligned forces into one of the Middle East’s most formidable militant groups.
Persistent Houthi strikes are raising new questions for the Biden administration about how to bring the attacks to a halt and prevent the continuing war in the Gaza Strip from fueling a more destabilising regional conflict.
The US-led response took another hit on Sunday when a Houthi attack crippled the UK-owned bulk carrier Rubymar in the Red Sea, forcing the crew to abandon ship amid fears it could sink, British digital solutions company Vanguard Tech said.
Ellie Shafik, head of maritime intelligence at Vanguard Tech, said the vessel appeared unlikely to be recovered.
If the Rubymar sank, it would “most probably drive even more caution by multiple stakeholders” operating around Yemen, said Ami Daniel, chief executive of London-based maritime artificial-intelligence company Windward. “Therefore, it is likely that the drop in trades in the area will further escalate.”
On Tuesday US time, the Houthis claimed another string of attacks, including drone strikes on American warships in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, and launches of naval missiles at what they said was an Israeli vessel as well as targets in Southern Israel.
The operations were in response to “aggression and siege [on the Palestinians] and in response to the American-British aggression against our country,” Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sare’e said in a statement posted on the group’s Telegram channel.
The US military said on Tuesday one of its destroyers shot down a Houthi antiship cruise missile heading its way.
The US and a small group of allies have carried out nearly two dozen air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen since mid-January in an effort to end the militant attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Houthi forces have launched scores of drones and missiles at targets over the past four months in what they say is an attempt to pressure Israel to stop its war in Gaza.
The Houthis have tried to attack at least 45 ships, and the US military has shot down nearly 95 drones and missiles, according to the Pentagon. Elsewhere, Iran-backed fighters have launched more than 170 attacks in Iraq, Syria and Jordan targeting the US military that have killed three American service members and injured 180 others.
Houthi attacks have put a chill on global shipping, with ongoing economic shockwaves spreading across the globe. The volume of traffic from North American and European vessels transiting the Red Sea was down by 67 per cent in the week to February 17 compared with October, according to Windward. Some insurers, such as Norway’s Assuranceforeningen Skuld, have stopped covering all voyages near Yemen’s waters altogether.
While attacks on US forces in Jordan, Syria and Iraq have tapered off in recent days, the Houthi attacks continue unabated.
A US official said the Houthis purposely targeted American military ships on Sunday using antiship ballistic missiles for the first time. On Monday, the Houthis claimed responsibility for two attacks, including one in the Gulf of Aden on the US-owned bulk carrier, Sea Champion, which sustained minor damage, Vanguard said.
Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think tank in Washington, said the Houthis were less likely to follow any direction from Tehran to curtail their attacks.
“The Iranians really cannot rein the Houthis in,” he said. “We see now in Iraq that they have managed to at least put a pause on the attacks on US forces — probably temporarily. That’s not the kind of influence they have over the Houthis.”
William Wechsler, a former assistant secretary of defence who is now senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs, said the Biden administration should consider an expanded military campaign, including strikes to directly target Houthi leaders.
Mr Vaez and Kevin Donegan, a retired vice-admiral who led US naval forces in the Middle East as commander of the US Fifth Fleet [whose operational theatre includes the Red Sea] from 2015 to 2017, said the most effective way to curtail the Houthi threat is to bring an end to the war in Gaza.
Israel launched the war in response to Hamas’s October 7 cross-border attack from Gaza that the government said killed more than 1200 people, most of them civilians, and led to the capture of 240 hostages, half of whom are still believed to be held in the Gaza Strip.
Israel’s response has killed more than 29,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children, according to Gaza health officials, whose figures don’t distinguish between civilians and fighters. Israel has vowed to continue the war until all hostages are freed and Hamas is eliminated as a threat. But international pressure is increasing on Israel to find a diplomatic end to the fight.
“We have to get the conflict in Gaza resolved or stopped in some way,” said Mr Donegan. “That’s the only thing that’s going to allow other things to happen. In the meantime, we can’t allow the Houthis to blow up the global supply chain.”
Nadwa Al-Dawsari, a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute who specialises in Yemen, said an expanded US military campaign would also be ineffective.
“Air strikes are not going to neutralise the Houthi capabilities,” she said. “The air strikes are validating the Houthi narrative that they are at war with America and Israel.”
Ms Dawsari encouraged the US to step up its direct military support for Yemen’s government, which has struggled to defeat the Houthis over nearly a decade of civil war.
“If we don’t deal with the Houthi problem today, it will be a bigger problem to solve in the future,” she said.
Nancy A. Youssef contributed to this article.
The Wall Street Journal
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