Bland Joe Biden lacks any reason to vote for him

Joe Biden steps into his limousine upon arrival at Miami International Airport on Tuesday. Picture: AFP

Donald Trump is beatable, but Joe Biden’s re-election campaign has no persuasive theme.

That Biden trails Trump in the RealClearPolitics average by 43.9 per cent to 47.8 per cent suggests the presumptive Democrat nominee has significant challenges. In the 18 polls conducted this year, the President has led in only two and tied in three. So where to begin?

Winston Churchill reportedly once rejected an indifferent dessert, saying: “Take away this pudding! It has no theme.” Biden’s campaign is worse than Churchill’s pudding. He not only lacks an effective, simple storyline about who he is and what this contest is about; his attempts so far to draw one have only muddled things further.

He was elected in 2020 as a transitional figure who was supposed to return normality to the White House. Then in 2021 and 2022, his staff hyped him as the most transformational president since at least Lyndon B. Johnson. This year he is depicted as the defender of democracy and abortion. That may not be all that helpful to his re-election.

Team Biden doesn’t seem to understand that attacking Trump as a fundamental threat to democracy revs up his base. Right or wrong, MAGA supporters see four indictments, a hostile media, and efforts to kick Trump off the ballot as threats to democracy. Most attacks on him have strengthened their devotion.

But railing about Trump’s traversing of norms doesn’t energise Biden voters, many of whom remain generally lethargic. The President would have more success focusing on specific matters that independents and swayable Republicans care about. For one, Trump promises to pardon those imprisoned over the January 6, 2021, riots. That’s unacceptable to most Americans. He keeps claiming he won the 2020 election. While most Republicans believe that, nearly a third disagree, as do most independents.

Abortion may help turn out otherwise unenthusiastic Democrats in states with ballot measures on the issue, but the issue may not be all that Team Biden thinks it is. Neither Trump nor his only challenger Nikki Haley is likely to mishandle the issue by supporting a six- or 10-week national ban.

While consumer confidence is rapidly rising, Biden still doesn’t have an economic message that clicks with voters. Last year he used “Bidenomics” to describe what he claimed was a thriving economy, even though most Americans thought it stank. Now, though inflation is receding and growth is good, most voters are still adjusting to three years of price inflation and wages that didn’t keep up.

Immigration is a disaster for Biden. If congress doesn’t pass border-security legislation, the President can’t simply blame Republicans. People know he has neglected the southern border for three years. No amount of finger pointing will erase Trump’s advantage on the issue – 52 per cent to 30 per cent in a January swing-state poll.

Biden seems afraid that even if he gets a deal, closing the border would further diminish the enthusiasm of his party’s left wing. He’s probably right. But without action, he risks alienating other voters he needs – working-class and black Democrats – who are worried about illegal immigration.

Then there are the US soldiers killed by an Iranian drone strike in Jordan. Such attacks often cause Americans to rally around their president. Not this time. After his botched August 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan accelerated his slide in the polls, Biden may have lost his ability to rally support. He looks feckless and weak.

Don’t forget Hunter Biden’s legal difficulties. Though the lawyer for the President’s son claims it’s a political persecution, most Americans believe people who don’t pay their taxes and lie on applications to purchase guns deserve punishment. There’s no evidence of illegal action by the President, but his wayward son’s continuing legal difficulties will hurt Biden’s re-election chances.

There’s also the president’s campaign structure. Next month, two top advisers—Jen O’Malley Dillon, his 2020 manager, and Mike Donilon, his longtime messaging maven—will leave the White House to supervise the campaign. But they won’t go to his Wilmington, Del., headquarters. They’re decamping to an office a few blocks from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. How can they supervise a campaign staff that’s more than 100 miles away?

All these challenges pale in significance compared with Biden’s fundamental problem: He comes across as too old and lacking the mental sharpness necessary to be president. Each week his senior shuffle seems more pronounced, the moments he looks confused more frequent, his verbal miscues more prevalent. Words or deeds may overcome other challenges, but this fundamental question about Biden’s fitness for office may be insurmountable.

The Wall Street Journal

Karl Rove twice masterminded the election of George W. Bush