Allies float ceasefire to head off Israel-Hezbollah ground war

The Biden administration is urgently pressing for Israel and Hezbollah to pause their escalating cross border aerial attacks, hoping to head off a full-scale ground war.

The US and French leaders pressed jointly on Thursday for an immediate 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon in a call joined by allies as the death toll mounts from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah. Presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York as they voiced fears that the conflict, after a year of bloodshed in Gaza, would escalate into a full-blown regional war.

Secondary Explosions = Stored Munitions

It's basic. Secondary explosions occur because we are precisely targeting the munitions of Hezbollah that are aimed at killing our civilians. pic.twitter.com/HvgbEkps2L

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) September 25, 2024

The situation in Lebanon had become “intolerable” and “is in nobody’s interest, neither of the ­people of Israel nor of the people of Lebanon” said a joint statement released by the White House.

“We call for an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border to provide space for diplomacy towards the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement.”

The statement was issued jointly with Western powers, Japan and key Gulf Arab powers – Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot earlier unveiled the proposal at an emergency Security Council session. “There has been important progress in the past few hours,” Mr Barrot said.

“We’ve been working since the start of the week in New York on a diplomatic solution with our American friends in particular.”

Despite a growing Israeli build-up along its northern border, US officials think Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government doesn’t want a wider war and is looking for a diplomatic resolution and that Hezbollah wants breathing room after Israel has decimated its leadership and degraded its weapons arsenal.

The hope is that negotiators can reach an agreement to end fighting on Israel’s northern border and that deal could help break the stalled effort for a Gaza ceasefire, a US official said.

Negotiators would resume talks on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in hopes that a halt in fighting there wouldease the pressure on Hezbollah to keep up its rocket attacks on northern Israel, the Arab officials said.

The window of opportunity to prevent a war is closing, US officials acknowledged.

Hezbollah’s leadership has vowed not to stop its attacks across the border until Israel halts its campaign in Gaza. Arab negotiators and even some US officials aren’t optimistic, noting similar failed efforts to reach a ceasefire deal between Israel and Gaza.

On Wednesday, Israel called up at least two reserve brigades for the north, and the commander of its forces in the north warned of a potential ground invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah launched more rockets into Israel, along with a ballistic missile aimed at Tel Aviv on Wednesday that was intercepted, its deepest attempted strike yet.

US officials said they haven’t seen signs that a large-scale Israeli ground invasion of southern Lebanon was imminent. Israel could, however, fairly rapidly put additional forces in place for such an assault, they added.

For the White House, the push to halt the fighting is especially urgent, with the American presidential election seven weeks away and four months left before President Biden leaves office.

Israel has raised the intensity of its military operations against Hezbollah over the past week in hopes of persuading the militia to stop firing on Israel’s north and allowing tens of thousands of displaced residents to return to their homes there.

What you are watching is a UAV hitting a port in Eilat, Israel’s southernmost city.

This is what we mean when we say we’re fight a multi-front war. pic.twitter.com/QPV4NiMDHr

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) September 25, 2024

“We’re continuing up the escalatory ladder,” said Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Near East. “The challenge is, US leverage remains quite low,” said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think tank.

Since the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, the US and its allies have sought to prevent the Gaza conflict from expanding into a regionwide war between Israel and Iranian-backed proxies.

“An all-out war is possible, but I think there is also the possibility, we’re still in play, to have a settlement that could fundamentally change the whole region,” Mr Biden said Wednesday on ABC’s “The View” program.

“I am using every bit of energy I have, with my team … to get this done.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other top officials have spent the past three days at the United Nations General Assembly in New York trying to find a diplomatic solution, according to one of the US officials, raising ideas with European and Arab partners, the official said.

With a wider war looming, Netanyahu has delayed his arrival in New York to attend the annual U.N. gathering, though he was planning to arrive Thursday morning, according to Danny Danon, the Israeli ambassador to the U.N.

Israel is open to discussing ways to de-escalate the conflict, Mr Danon told reporters. “As we speak there are important forces trying to come up with ideas,” he said. “We aren’t eager to start any ground invasion anywhere … We prefer a diplomatic solution.”

Retaliatory Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah have killed at least 564 people since Monday and forced thousands of civilians to flee. Iran-backed Hezbollah has lobbed rockets into northern Israel for almost a year, forcing more than 60,000 Israelis from their homes. Another 1800 have been injured.

The Biden administration, which at times has been critical of Netanyahu’s military campaign in Gaza, has declined to critique the offensive in Lebanon.

“Israel understandably, legitimately wants a secure environment so people can return home,” Blinken said on CBS. “The best way to get that is through diplomacy, an agreement to pull back forces.”

The Wall Street Journal