As Donald Trump dominates in Iowa, Nikki Haley has eye on New Hampshire
New Iowa Poll finds Nikki Haley in second place but still well behind Donald Trump. If Monday’s results are similar, Trump will have scored the largest margin over a second-place finisher in Iowa GOP caucus history.
Nikki Haley has been waxing sentimental in recent days on the campaign trail about the fun she has had and the people she has met in the past year in this state that hosts the first 2024 Republican presidential caucuses Monday.
Left unsaid is how eager she must be to get out of the state and pivot to New Hampshire, where the nation’s first primary, on Jan. 23, offers her the best prospect of throwing a roadblock in front of former President Donald Trump.
An Iowa Poll released late Saturday showed Haley, a former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador, has moved into second place in the state with support from 20 per cent of likely Republican caucus participants, up 4 points since early December.
Trump’s support dropped slightly since the last survey, to 48 per cent from 51 per cent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fell 3 points, slipping to third place at 16 per cent. Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy was at 8 per cent.
The survey, the most closely watched poll in the state, is conducted on behalf of the Des Moines Register. NBC News and Mediacom, Iowa’s largest cable provider, also are sponsors of the poll ahead of the caucuses.
Haley on Sunday said that the poll showed she has momentum. “To me, the only numbers that matter are the ones that we’re going up and everybody else went down,” she said on Fox. “And that shows that we’re doing the right thing.”
DeSantis, in his own appearance on the network said, “I appreciate being the underdog … I do better in those situations.”
Trump’s campaign, in a statement after the poll’s release, cautioned against complacency. “Our grassroots supporters have put us in position to win, and now we have to show up,” it said.
Haley on Sunday picked up the endorsement of former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a centrist Republican who had briefly contemplated getting into the GOP race. “I believe that Nikki Haley is the strongest chance for us to put forth our best possible candidate for November,” Hogan said on CNN. Polling shows that Haley wins support from many moderate GOP voters, but that group is far outnumbered by the party’s conservatives.
If Monday’s results are close to the poll’s numbers, Trump will have scored the largest margin over a second-place finisher in Iowa GOP caucus history. Sen. Bob Dole beat Pat Robertson, the former television evangelist, by 12.8 percentage points in 1988.
Trump was scheduled to appear in central Iowa on Sunday, after a blizzard scrambled campaign schedules for all of the major candidates. Record-cold temperatures forecast for the caucuses are raising concerns about turnout, especially among older and rural voters.
Aware of Haley’s rising status, Trump has increased his attacks on Haley, who was in his administration. On Saturday evening, he went after her during a small event with Iowa supporters broadcast online. “She’s not strong enough to be president,” he said.
Before he can challenge President Biden, Trump said he and his supporters have to “knock off two people,” a reference to Haley and DeSantis. He later said Haley “may be replacing” DeSantis as his top competitor.
Ahead of the broadcast, Trump criticised Ramaswamy for the first time in a major way, posting on social media that a vote for him would be one for the “other side.” Ramaswamy, in a weekend interview with The Wall Street Journal, said he expects Trump to be forced out of the race and that voters will turn to him as the alternative.
Haley, in her closing argument to voters, is suggesting the Republican Party must turn the page on its Trump chapter.
“This comes down to a choice,” she told supporters Saturday in Cedar Falls. “You’ve got the opportunity to look back at the past and continue, or go forward and start new.” Campaigning with her two grown children, Haley argued the GOP would continue to fail electorally if it ties itself to Trump.
“Republicans have lost the last seven out of eight popular votes for president,” she said. “We should want to win the majority of Americans. But the only way we are going to win the majority of Americans is if we go forward with a new generational conservative leader and leave the negativity and the baggage behind.” Iowa has never been a perfect political fit for Haley, who is viewed as more moderate than Trump or DeSantis.
“I think she’s a Democrat,” said Gail Kirst, a 73-year-old from Des Moines and DeSantis backer.
Some Democrats do like Haley, or at least view her as the candidate most likely to block Trump from returning to the White House. Margaret Coles, 43, who works in education and lives in Johnston, and her husband changed their voter registration from Democrat to Republican to be able to caucus for Haley.
“We felt that she was the most moderate of the Republican candidates,” Coles said. “She’s the least divisive, brings people together and I think most aligns with our values.” Haley has sought to straddle the party’s two factions — establishment and populist — since entering the race last February as the first major candidate to challenge Trump. She praises the former president at virtually every stop but also suggests he’s continually surrounded by “chaos.” Chris Christie’s exit from the Republican primary race last week gave Haley a boost and a chance to corner the market among GOP voters looking for an alternative to Trump.
The former New Jersey governor had focused his campaign entirely on New Hampshire, and many of his supporters there are expected to move to Haley, though Christie hasn’t endorsed Haley and was caught on a mic saying “she’s not up to this.” A CNN poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters released last week found that Christie had 12% support, and two-thirds of those backing him listed Haley as their second choice. With Haley already nipping at Trump’s heels in that survey, trailing him 32% to 39%, Christie’s exit raised the prospect of an outright Haley victory in New Hampshire.
While Iowa’s GOP caucuses are dominated by conservatives and evangelical Christians, New Hampshire’s Republican primary electorate includes many moderates and independents. Democratic voters may choose to switch parties and participate in the GOP primary, because their own primary this year is unsanctioned.
A New Hampshire win for Haley would likely trigger substantial donor support, media attention and voter interest for her. But given the makeup of the Republican Party nationally, she would still face major headwinds in subsequent primary states, including her home state of South Carolina.
In Iowa, the campaigns are working to manage expectations for how well they need to perform to claim success in the caucuses. Finishing in the top three has traditionally been considered a ticket to move on.
On Saturday, DeSantis picked up the endorsement of the Sioux City Journal. It’s the largest newspaper in northwest Iowa, the most conservative part of the state.
DeSantis spoke to a packed room at the West Des Moines headquarters of a super PAC supporting his campaign. But it wasn’t clear how many in the audience were Iowa voters, as dozens of Florida elected officials and some political tourists had travelled to watch the spectacle in Iowa.
The Florida governor, who will likely need to outperform Haley to continue past Iowa, vowed to beat expectations and polls that he called fake.
Ron Steenhoek, a 78-year-old DeSantis supporter from West Des Moines, said he worries about Haley’s momentum after Iowa. “I’m a little concerned that Haley is going into her strong states, New Hampshire and South Carolina,” he said. “But I think DeSantis will get a bump here that will help him.” Jay McCracken, a 67-year-old salesman for a tool company, who lives in Des Moines, said he planned to caucus for Haley.
“I was a Trump supporter,” he said. “But I don’t think he has that faith and religious conviction that Nikki does. I’m tired of Trump’s brashness.” Tim Stacy, a 70-year-old retired social worker from Des Moines, said his decision to caucus for Haley was heavily tied to polling that shows she would be the strongest GOP challenger to Biden. “She’s a fighter, but she’s not looking for a fight,” he said.
Dow Jones
