He’s right, and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s messages to his negotiators reported by the Journal have said as much. But how then to account for the Biden Administration’s actions?
Since the first and so far only hostage deal in November 2023, President Biden has introduced “public daylight” non-stop, restraining Israel, rebuking it, threatening it and demanding an end to its defensive war. The President used the fights to assuage his party’s anti-Israel activist base before the 2024 election, but as Mr Blinken says, Hamas also got the message.
On November 30, 2023, Mr Blinken laid down new rules for how Israel could fight — in short, nothing like how it fought in Gaza City, which is what had forced Hamas into a deal. On December 12 Mr Biden accused Israel of “indiscriminate bombing,” a falsehood belied by the evidence. The message to Israel was to “transition to the next phase” with fewer troops.
As pressure on Israel increased in 2024, Hamas reasoned it didn’t need to release the hostages; the U.S. would force Israel to end the war anyway. In February the Administration pushed for a Palestinian state, created an anti-Israel sanctions regime, and attached new strings to weapons transfers. Mr Biden criticised Israel’s war effort as “over the top” and deemed Israeli settlements illegal.
Where was the worry then about daylight, while more hostages were still alive?
In March Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for Israel’s government to fall. Mr Biden blamed Israel for aid problems, Vice President Kamala Harris called for an “immediate ceasefire” and the President laid down a “red line” that Israel must not enter Rafah, Hamas’s southern stronghold. Mr Biden issued threats not in private but on CNN: “We’re not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells.” He made good on that.
In April Mr Biden condemned Israel and demanded new concessions in negotiations. Mr Blinken warned “if we don’t see the changes we need to see” in Israel’s conduct, “there will be a change in our policy.” At the time, we called this “the worst thing the President could do to free the hostages.” Why did it take Mr Blinken so long to reach the same conclusion?
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We could continue month by month, including how Mr Biden did all he could to stop Israel from defeating Hezbollah. More revealing is the Administration’s change in tune, especially since the U.S. election.
Instead of continuing to complain about its failure to stop Israel, the Biden team has taken credit for Israel’s accomplishments. Mr Biden, who pushed “de-escalation” throughout the conflict, in December boasted that he had “shifted the balance of power in the Middle East.” Mr Blinken now says “Israel has destroyed Hamas’s military capabilities.” National-security adviser Jake Sullivan says “Iran’s major proxy in the region, Hezbollah, is absolutely weakened, shattered.”
The Washington Post’s David Ignatius, an amplifier for Biden policies, writes in his Dec. 31 exit interview with Mr Sullivan that “the Biden team bet on Israel,” which “began to run the table against Iran and its proxies,” resulting in “a transformed Middle East.” Who knew de-escalation meant transformation?
As the Biden team gropes for a legacy, about the only positive one it can find is that Iranian power has been rolled back. Never mind that this was the opposite of its policy, which sought accommodation at every turn and tried to stop Israel short in each theatre. Let’s pray the change has come in time to quash Hamas’s hopes and help the hostages.
The Wall St Journal
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Now he tells us. In an interview published Saturday in the New York Times, Secretary of State Antony Blinken named the key impediment to a Gaza hostage deal: “Whenever there has been public daylight between the United States and Israel, and the perception that pressure was growing on Israel, we’ve seen it: Hamas has pulled back from agreeing to a ceasefire and the release of hostages.”