After pressuring Ukraine for peace deal, Trump finally sees an obstacle in Russia

Donald Trump’s latest plea to Vladimir Putin to halt its attacks on Ukraine highlights the risky premise he made in his quest for a quick end to the war – namely, that the Kremlin wants peace.

President Trump’s latest plea to Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt its attacks on Ukraine highlights the risky premise he made in his quest for a quick end to the war – namely, that the Kremlin wants peace.

Three months in with little to show for it, Trump was reduced to appealing to Putin by his first name after Russia’s latest missile barrage on Kyiv. “Vladimir, STOP!,” he wrote. “5000 soldiers a week are dying. Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!” Trump’s failure to halt the fighting after promising to do so quickly has left him increasingly frustrated and seemingly immobilised.

The question now is whether he is willing to press Moscow to make significant concessions to get a deal, in the same way that he has pushed Ukraine, a step that would put his larger goal of a rapprochement with Russia at risk.

Trump insists he’s willing to give Russia and Ukraine only so much more time to come to a deal before the US backs out of helping with peace talks.

“We are thinking that, very strongly, that they both want peace but they have to get to the table,” Trump told reporters at the White House Thursday, adding that he had a deadline in mind that he did not divulge.

While Trump has meted out criticism of Putin before, such instances are relatively rare, and aides to Trump say he has lately been genuinely surprised – and privately irritated – that Putin hasn’t shown more flexibility.

Trump has aimed his displeasure at Ukraine, rather than Russia, because it has been the easier of the two to influence, said Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. After a blow-up in the Oval Office between Trump and Zelensky in February, Trump briefly cut off intelligence sharing with Kyiv and suspended military shipments.

Ukrainian rescuers carry a wounded local resident after the Russian missile attack on Kyiv. Picture; AFP.

Trump doesn’t have as many easily deployed levers against Moscow, Graham said. After Russia’s invasion in 2022, the US and its allies have already waged unprecedented sanctions against Russia, which has reoriented its exports toward new trading partners.

Since he was inaugurated, Trump has suggested that he might target Russia’s oil exports with further sanctions if Putin resisted a peace deal. But he made no mention of that idea Thursday, indicating that he thought Russia would be doing the West a favour by not seizing the rest of Ukraine.

Asked what concessions Putin had offered in negotiations he said: “Stopping the war, stopping taking the whole country.” Trump still shows little appetite for crossing Putin. His belief that he could achieve a peace deal appears to be based on his admiration for the Russian president, whose decision to invade Ukraine in 2002 he has called “genius” and “savvy.” That personal fondness is now shared by Trump’s emissary to Moscow, Stephen Witkoff, who is expected to make his fourth trip to meet with Putin in coming days. After previous trips, he has returned praising Putin’s demeanour and saying he thought a deal was possible.

But Witkoff’s lack of experience in dealing with the Russians could be giving Trump an overly rosy assessment of the chance for peace, Graham said. That could leave Trump feeling deceived, Graham said.

Graham, who served as national security adviser for Russia to George W. Bush and still travels frequently to Moscow, noted that earlier this year the Russians worried that Witkoff didn’t fully understand Russian demands over Ukraine.

“The concern was that Witkoff would take back to Trump some sort of view of what the Russian position was, which wasn’t the real Russian position, ” Graham said. “And we may be seeing a little bit of that right now.” Putin has shown little inclination to sign a peace agreement with Ukraine soon, although he might consider the idea of an agreement to placate Trump, said Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

A Ukrainian serviceman carries a dog out of a house damaged by a Russian airstrike on Kyiv. Picture; AP.

The Kremlin is genuinely worried about offending Trump, she said, but Putin’s own desire for victory in Ukraine outweighs those concerns. When Witkoff arrives in Moscow, Putin will likely seek to allay the discord over Ukraine, while stressing that Russia and the US can foster good relations through regional deals on issues such as Iran.

“Putin will try to explain that Russia just can’t drop Ukraine, that it’s existential for Russia,” she said. “But he will say that Russia and the US are two great nations that, for the sake of peace in the world, must have a normal, effective relationship.” Though Russia’s losses have been heavy, Putin has already exacted a number of concessions from the Trump administration, including signals that it is open to recognising Crimea as a province of Russia, barring Ukraine from NATO, and accepting Russia’s de facto occupation of swathes of Ukraine.

Trump’s outreach has also eased Moscow’s isolation from the West and sown tensions with US allies in Europe, who favour a harder line on Ukraine.

“Russians don’t see a reason to do a deal as long as they can keep gradually moving forward on the battlefield and getting more concessions from the Americans,” said Eric Green, a former Biden administration National Security Council aide.

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