A Trump election comeback? With these pieces, it’s still possible

Donald Trump and Amy Coney Barrett at the White House in Washington after she was sworn in as a US Supreme Court Associate Justice on Wednesday. Picture: AFP

For those in the business of writing about politics, the question you are asked most frequently these days is: Could Donald Trump still win?

It’s a question posed both by those who want the US President to win and by those who don’t. With a week to go before election day, this seems a good time to offer an answer: Yes, of course he could.

Doing so most likely would require piecing together the requisite support from a few influential demographic groups and the right combination of states, allowing him to win the Electoral College while again losing the popular vote nationally.

“Given the history of the 2016 campaign, Trump’s ability to turn his campaign around in the final days can’t be underestimated,” wrote Democrat Doug Sosnik, former political director for president Bill Clinton, in an analysis over the weekend.

Joe Biden in Chester, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday. Picture: AFP

“Trump has a much more aggressive campaign schedule than Biden. He is drawing large crowds and is dominating local coverage in the battleground states where he is campaigning.”

This is a look at how that could happen, though it comes with this bright, flashing caveat at the top. Most people with any sense got out of the prediction business after the 2016 election, and aren’t in that business now.

To say Joe Biden is well ahead in the national polls, for example, isn’t a prediction that the Democrat former vice-president will win. It’s simply a statement of fact.

To say Trump still could come out on top by picking off a combination of important states isn’t a prediction he will win. It’s simply a statement of fact.

Trump supporters strain to catch a Make America Great Again hat thrown by Donald Trump during in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday. Picture: AFP

In one fundamental respect, the closing picture isn’t favourable for Trump.

The novelle coronavirus, which may prove his 2020 Achilles heel, is surging just as the election approaches, and particularly in important Midwest battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.

Still, there are some key voter groups where the Republican’s campaign can make inroads:

Previously dormant white working-class men

These men are a core Trump constituency, particularly in the industrial Midwest, yet many didn’t show up in 2016.

David Wasserman, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, estimated earlier this year that whites without college degrees made up 60 per cent of those who didn’t vote in Michigan, 64 per cent in Pennsylvania and 64 per cent in Wisconsin. The Trump campaign has worked hard to get many of those registered to vote this time.

Hispanics

Trump won 29 per cent of them four years ago, matching the performance of Republican Mitt Romney in 2012. A slight improvement could help ensure he keeps the important states of Florida and Arizona in his column, and give him a shot at Nevada.

A young Trump supporter dressed as the President at a rally in Martinsburg, Pennsylvania. Picture: AFP

Black men

Much as black women didn’t turn out for Hillary Clinton in the numbers expected in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin four years ago, helping deliver her fatal blows in those states, the Trump campaign thinks an over-performance by the President among black men could prove decisive for him this time in Ohio, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Young black men, in particular, haven’t shown high enthusiasm for Biden.

White evangelical women

This is an under-appreciated group in some swing states, and a core group for Trump. Nationally, evangelicals make up 17 per cent of all white women, but 21 per cent of white women in the South and Midwest. They could prove important in, for example, the hotly contested state of North Carolina, where Trump is running better with white women than he does nationally.

Senior citizens

With this group, the vital thing for Trump is to limit the erosion. He won 52 per cent of voters aged 65 and over in 2016, but now trails among them.

Biden is favoured by a majority, most polls show. This is a group that comes out to vote, reliably, and a key for Trump is to minimise his loss of support there in the closing days.

So how could all this add up to a Trump victory?

The map would start with the President holding on to five fundamental contested states: Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Iowa.

If he then could also hang onto Pennsylvania and Arizona, he’d win the Electoral College vote, even if he loses the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump doesn’t have a lot of margin for error, and Pennsylvania is the key.

So what is the Biden campaign’s view of this scenario?

It believes traditional union support for Biden means he will hold his own with working-class white men; that fear and unhappiness over the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus have consistently pushed senior citizens their way; and that Biden is outperforming how Clinton fared among Florida Hispanics.

Oh, and they think big demographic changes in Georgia open the way for a Democrat surprise — which is one reason Biden plans to be there on Wednesday (AEDT).

The Wall Street Journal