A bible-quoting liberal and a left-wing antagonist lead longshot bid to flip Texas
Two progressive competitors in the Democratic primary are raising Texas Democrats’ hopes that they could stand a chance of winning a statewide race next year.
Democrat James Talarico, the young seminarian vying to be Texas’ next senator, stood encircled by supporters at a recent campaign event, telling the group “You can’t love God while bullying the outsider, ” as some responded “Amen!” A day later another Democrat, Jasmine Crockett, a flame-throwing first-term congresswoman, launched her bid for the seat on a glowing blue stage in Dallas. She launched an ad showing her blinking slowly behind audio of President Trump’s insults of her, including “low IQ.”
The pair, competitors in the Democratic primary, are raising Texas Democrats’ excitement and hope – yet again – that the party could stand a chance of winning a statewide race next year. Republicans have dominated the state’s politics for a generation, and Democrats haven’t won a statewide race since 1994.
The Texas Senate race has become a test of Republicans’ ability to hold their Senate majority. Longtime Sen. John Cornyn is facing primary challenges from Texas Attorney-General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. The prospect of Paxton winning the race, which political strategists say is a strong possibility given the state’s run-off system, has amped up Democratic motivation.
But Democrats have over-estimated their chances in Texas many times, and will have their work cut out for them to beat the odds in November. Ms Crockett is one of the party’s most prolific fundraisers nationwide and Mr Talarico has garnered intrigue, but neither has yet matched the crowds and campaign breadth of Democrat Beto O’Rourke in 2018. And voter data indicates the state may have become redder since then, giving Republicans breathing room even if they nominate Paxton, whom analysts see as a flawed candidate.
Paxton has long faced accusations of legal and ethical misconduct, including securities fraud charges he resolved with a pre-trial deal; his top deputies referring abuse-of-office allegations to the FBI; an impeachment by state House Republicans and subsequent acquittal by state Senate Republicans; and reports of infidelity that led his wife to file for divorce. He has denied wrongdoing. Democrats hope moderate voters’ discomfort with him, combined with a strong blue midterm cycle and backlash to Trump, could push a Democrat past the 3% margin by which Sen. Ted Cruz beat O’Rourke by in 2018.
Rep. Colin Allred, a moderate, withdrew from the race as Ms Crockett entered it. His departure means Ms Crockett and Mr Talarico will battle over their different visions of progressive politics, without a major candidate in the primary to represent the Democratic Party’s centrist wing. Both have seen their profiles skyrocket with viral clips on TikTok and Instagram.
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political-science professor at the University of Houston, said the race will test the age-old question of whether it is better to try to draw crossover voters with a more moderate candidate or excite base voters with a more progressive candidate. Campaigns usually find the latter easier, he said. Democrats hope to regain ground they have lost in recent cycles with South Texas Latino voters, who are souring on Trump, but Mr Rottinghaus said that may prove challenging.
Ms Crockett, 44, could be what Democrats need, Mr Rottinghaus said. She is popular among the core groups the party will need to turn out next year, especially voters in the state’s biggest cities, which are Democratic strongholds. But she’s easy for Republicans to run against, he said.
“Jasmine Crockett is already a polarising national figure,” Mr Rottinghaus said. A fresh-faced, Bible-quoting liberal in the state House, Mr Talarico, 36, has drawn fascination for his earnest defences of leftist ideals. Rottinghaus said Mr Talarico’s novelty and moral messaging make him “kind of created in a lab to run against Ken Paxton.” But he noted Mr Talarico is untested at a state level and said Democrats haven’t had much recent success with religious messaging.
‘A freaking hurricane’
For weeks, Ms Crockett stoked will-she-or-won’t-she intrigue about joining the race. She told CNN as recently as Saturday that she had two cashier’s checks ready to cash for two different races.
A lawyer from North Texas, she has courted controversy. She drew widespread criticism for calling Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who uses a wheelchair, “Governor Hot Wheels.” When Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene made a crack about Ms Crockett’s fake eyelashes, Ms Crockett responded by calling her a “bleach-blonde, bad-built, butch body.” Ms Crockett’s supporters love what they call her boldness.
“I come from Laredo, where they don’t want to step on anyone’s toes,” said Maxine Rebeles, a social-justice activist who drove six hours for the campaign launch. “But sometimes you just need a freaking hurricane or a tidal wave.”
A former public defender in East Texas, Ms Crockett said she “loved being a courtroom warrior.” She was in her first months in the state House in 2021 when Democrats fled the state to try to kill a voting bill.
The quorum break was a key moment for Ms Crockett. She saw election issues as fighting for future generations, she told The Wall Street Journal recently, and never expected to become a congresswoman and see her own district shifted mid-decade. She blames congressional Democrats for not getting the national legislation passed.
“The lesson from that should be, and I hope it is, that Democrats are well meaning people, good people, great, but we’ve got to get tough,” Ms Crockett said. “Republicans are cutthroat.”
A recent poll of Texas voters by Change Research found that Ms Crockett has high name recognition, but more people have an unfavourable opinion of her than a favourable one. The proportion of voters who said they would definitely not vote for her was 49%, the highest of the six Democrats and Republicans named. Nearly half of respondents had never heard of Mr Talarico but, among those who had, more than twice as many people liked him as disliked him.
‘Obama and Mr. Rogers’
Mr Talarico, a one-time middle-school teacher, has gained social media attention by sparring with right-wing policy advocates over theology and speaking out against billionaires and Christian nationalists. He is fond of saying the country isn’t divided left-to-right but top-to-bottom. Fans at his event said his campaign was stoking hope they hadn’t felt since O’Rourke’s 2018 rallies.
“He’s kind of like Barack Obama and Mr. Rogers rolled into one,” said Michelle Castilla, who came to the event with her husband and two children.
He has sought out conversations with figures popular on the right, including podcaster Joe Rogan, who urged him to run for president.
Some Democrats have worried that Mr Talarico comments are ripe for general election attack ads, including a debate in which he said, “God is nonbinary,” but Mr Talarico doesn’t regret his phrasing.
“They should take it up with the Apostle Paul, who wrote in a letter to the Galatians that in Christ there is neither male nor female,” he said in an interview.
Melissa Lee Kovats, a retiree and three-time Trump voter, had tears in her eyes as she listened to Mr Talarico speak. She had never heard of him until two weeks ago, when her husband sent her a video of him, Kovats said. The self-described Libertarian said she wasn’t a fan of Democratic policies but had grown disillusioned with Republican rhetoric.
“The way James talked about Christ and taking care of your neighbour, he took that right out of my heart,” Kovats said.
She walked out ready to vote in her first Democratic primary. But if Mr Talarico and Cornyn lose their primaries, she said she would probably stay home in November.
Ms Crockett or Paxton? “I couldn’t,” she said.
The Wall St Journal
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