IBM reveals shock timeline for quantum computing threat to Australia

A silent technological war threatens Australian security as quantum computing advances could soon crack our strongest cyber defences.

Inside IBM’s quantum computing lab. The tech giant is betting quantum computing will become its biggest breakthrough in years, jostling for supremacy in what has become a trillion-dollar competition.

A silent war is brewing, and it’s about to change everything we know about national security, according to IBM Australia and New Zealand managing director Nick Flood.

Mr Flood says quantum computing is no longer a distant threat, it’s a “quantum leap” that could hit us sooner than anyone imagined, making our current cyber defences utterly useless.

At risk are our energy grids, telecommunications, and even hospitals, which could become vulnerable to attack.

Mr Flood, warns that a “quantum leap” in artificial intelligence could arrive much sooner than anticipated, leaving Australia exposed if it fails to prioritise sovereign technological control and invest in quantum-safe defences.

“I think that the emergence of quantum (computing) is the bold prediction. I think it’s going to arrive, just as AI arrived, a lot sooner than what people envisaged,” Mr Flood said.

IBM Australia and New Zealand managing director Nick Flood.

“Everyone knew it (AI) was there, but there was just certain developments that meant … it became useful at a rate and pace that was completely ahead of everyone’s kind of wildest expectations.

“There’ll be a similar dynamic when it comes to the emergence of quantum computing, and that will just boom and arrive at our doorstep sooner than anyone could have predicted.“

While quantum computing offers significant opportunities such as accelerating drug development, cures for diseases, material design by tackling calculations currently impossible for the most powerful classical systems, it also equally creates risks.

The implications for national security are profound. Quantum computing excels at cryptography, and its capabilities could be exploited by malicious actors to breach existing cybersecurity controls, disrupting critical infrastructure such as energy grids, telecommunications, healthcare, and public institutions en masse.

Mr Flood emphasised the need for immediate action, highlighting the efforts of agencies like National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in the US to establish quantum-safe cryptography standards.

“We’re focused really heavily here in IBM, Australia, on informing clients that now’s the time to build some level of familiarity with quantum computing across your organisation and literacy.“

IBM is betting that quantum will become its biggest breakthrough in years, jostling for supremacy in the technology against Google and Microsoft in what has become a trillion-dollar competition.

IBM has been working on developing larger clusters of quantum chips as it aims to deliver large scale quantum computing in the next five years.

The technology is already here. Michelle Simmons, chief executive and founder of Silicon Quantum Computing, has released its first product “well ahead of schedule” a couple of years ago, and is at work in the AI space. These aren’t the large, universal error-corrected systems often imagined, but highly specialised processors that significantly enhance classical machine learning.

Microsoft's Majorana 1 quantum computer chip.

Australia’s dependence on foreign technology further complicates this landscape.

But Mr Flood defined true sovereignty as “a state of being” that was “free to make the decisions that you choose based on your best interest, unencumbered by external influence or forces”.

He argued that a hybrid cloud architecture, championed by IBM, offers Australian enterprises the choice and control needed to navigate this complex environment. This approach allows organisations to move workloads and consume innovations from various providers, preventing vendor lock-in and ensuring data security.

And IBM in Australia is playing a key role in bolstering cyber defences. Its Gold Coast Security Lab, for instance, is not merely a research facility but a “proactive force” in shaping Australia’s security ecosystem.

Mr Flood said that Jay Gambetta, a product of the Gold Coast lab, had been named IBM’s Director of Research, a testament to Australia’s talent incubation. The lab has also been instrumental in developing security software, such as pass keys, which were central to the Australian Government’s introduction of this enhanced security measure into the myGov platform.

Mr Flood highlighted the speed at which Australia is now adopting cutting-edge cybersecurity, noting that the time between world-leading innovations and their implementation in large Australian government agencies is “so much shorter than in years past.” This agility is crucial in a “really fast evolving threat landscape.”

But it’s not just technological advancements. Mr Flood stressed the often-overlooked factor of skills in achieving true technological sovereignty. He advocated for democratising pathways into technology, moving beyond degree-level qualifications to broaden the talent pool. IBM’s initiatives with the NSW government and partnerships with school students aim to foster a more inclusive and skilled workforce, essential for Australia’s long-term security in the AI era.

But the challenge remains significant. Past experiences, such as the “Robodebt” saga, have left a “long shadow” of risk aversion within government agencies, making rapid adoption of new technologies difficult.

This is despite other countries leapfrogging ahead with digital transformation. Germany for example is getting its own sovereign ChatGPT. SAP and ChatGPT maker OpenAI announced last month a partnership to enable millions of public sector employees to use AI “safely and responsibly while meeting strict data sovereignty, security and legal standards”.

But Mr Flood said there is time for Australia to catch up. He said the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated Australia’s capacity for national collaboration on digital initiatives, offering a glimmer of hope that a “nation-based way of thinking” could accelerate the embrace of sovereign AI and quantum-safe technologies.

“The world changed during covid, and one of the positives from that was that federated nature of Australia, for once, was kind of overcome in the national interest,” he said.

“And I just wonder whether the connections that were built through that time with like the National vaccination program and other digital initiatives, whether now’s the time to revisit those things like digital identity, given people have had successes in adopting a more nation based way of thinking for digital transformation.”

As the “quantum era” dawns, Australia stands at a critical juncture. The nation’s ability to prepare for the next cyber war will depend not only on technological innovation but also on a strategic commitment to sovereign control, a skilled workforce, and a willingness to overcome past hesitations to embrace the future of AI.