These 14 stock experts give their key mining picks for 2025: Part One

In the first part of our end-of-year special, seven fundies and analysts give their commodity and resources stock picks for 2025.

Stockhead's collection of resources experts from some of Australia's top funds and brokers are here with their top picks for 2025. Pic: Getty Images

In our Xmas gift to you, beloved Stockhead reader, we give our 2025 Experts' Digest.

Fourteen Australian stockpickers have come to the party with 59 – THAT'S RIGHT, 59 – large and small cap mining stocks they see with upside next year, plus which commodity's and themes they are playing and avoiding in 2025.

Seven fundies and analysts are on the roster for part one. But first a few little little themes we picked up.

As to be expected, gold and copper were the commodities on everyone's lips. Close to half of our respondents, six for each metal, picked gold and copper as the market to play.

The most reviled metal was nickel, which had four picks for worst commodity in 2025. One contrarian bet from Sanlam Private Wealth's Ben Faulkner tipped a quicker than expected rebound for nickel prices.

Lithium bets are also more bearish than bullish, with four tips in the worst commodity idea list, but two tipping an early revival in 2025. More fundies thought iron ore would struggle than prosper amid weak Chinese economic activity but met coal received support.

Uranium, alumina and silver also saw some love, with three picks on the right side of the ledger and none on the bad side for each of uranium, silver and coking coal.

The most selected name among our respondents was AIC Mines. The $178 million-capped owner of the Eloise copper mine in Queensland was three analysts' choice to play their bullish copper thesis.

Silver explorer Sun Silver, lithium hopeful Vulcan Energy Resources and gold exploration success story Spartan Resources all received two votes.

Gold names were by far the best represented, with 15 of the 59 companies primarily focused on gold mining and exploration. Most are ASX listed, with three expected to plan listings in H1 2025, including the London-listed owner of the Telfer gold mine, Greatland Gold.

John Forwood – Lowell Resources Fund

Best commodity/investing idea

Silver: Inventories are being drawn down, particularly by the solar panel industry, and there is the potential for the silver:gold ratio to fall from 85:1 towards 30:1.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Copper: Substitution is occurring in some key markets, and tariffs under US President-elect Donald Trump and disappointing stimulus in China may hamper a recovery in global manufacturing.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Asian Battery Metals (ASX:AZ9) – a nickel explorer in Mongolia.

VBX – unlisted bauxite explorer (potentially looking at H1 2025 listing).

Unity Energy and Resources – unlisted Cambodian gold explorer (potentially looking at H1 2025 listing).

Grady Wulff – Bell Direct

Best commodity/investing idea

Copper: The price hit record highs in 2024, and tailwinds remain in place for the commodity price to rise further in 2025. Demand is growing for the commodity due to its use in the global green energy transition, and there is not enough near-term producers of high-grade copper, thus the supply deficit is expected to widen over the coming years as demand grows.

M&A activity in critical minerals: M&A activity in the critical minerals space is likely to rise next year especially from the major players looking to expand their green footprint into the clean energy transition. Lower interest rate environment bodes well for higher M&A activity due to lower borrowing costs and softer commodity prices causing smaller players tough operating conditions to stay afloat.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Lithium and nickel: Nickel prices are highly volatile and sensitive to key factors like market sentiment and economic growth, thus we expect the price of the commodity to remain subdued in 2025. Lithium prices are expected to recover in FY26 to FY27 but headwinds remain in 2025.

Financials: Financials stock valuations were elevated in 2024 due to safe-haven nature of big bank investment in the eye of investors. While we expect interest rate cuts in 2025 and net interest margins having peaked, we see valuation of the banks as overvalued at these levels, while small caps and diversified financial exposure offer compelling investment opportunity. (Bell has buys on investment managers Regal Partners (ASX:RPL) and Perpetual (ASX:PPT).)

Stocks to watch in 2025

AIC Mines (ASX:A1M) – The company is focused on its 100%-owned Eloise copper project in Queensland, which is an established underground copper-gold mine currently producing ~12.5ktpa copper and +5kozpa gold. Bell Potter’s pick in the copper space with a clear pathway to growth having commenced expansion of its Eloise mine and mill to target 20,000tpa (future) copper production.

Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC) – Bell Potter’s nickel pick for its operations located in Indonesia which are long-life, bottom-of-the-cost-curve projects uniquely exposed to a diversified suite of nickel products capturing both upstream and downstream operations.

Hedley Widdup – Lion Selection Group

Best commodity/investing idea

Gold: The obvious one and I suspect I am going to be mainstream in thinking that. old has had a strong 2024 and looks to be in a bull market.  When gold is in a bull market performance tends to be multiples gained over several years, and we are very early on either of those measures for now. There is nothing that caps gold’s performance unlike most other commodities. If you compare gold and copper since their minimum prices in 1970, gold has gone up 75x and copper only 23x and I think that speaks to this “un-capped” quality of gold price.

Rare earths (in the context of a Trump presidency): So long as the push toward an energy transition is maintained this could be positive for things like rare earth elements (REEs) because there is very little market for these outside China. The caveat I have to add is that this might take longer than 2025, to evolve and build the process, refining, storage and value adding IP outside of China, so this makes this theme a maybe rather than a sure thing in my mind.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Iron ore: Anything that depends on a healthy and strongly growing China. Add to the woe for iron ore approaching new supply out of Guinea in West Africa, it's hard for me to see any strength in iron ore in 2025. Lacking margin growth in iron ore might mean BHP and Rio's share prices lack a strong lead in 2025. This isn’t new – BHP is down 17% in 12 months and Rio is down 9%. We are in a mining bust rather than a boom for the moment so I’d expect this, and iron ore weakness in 2025 will likely add to that.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Antipa Minerals (ASX:AZY) – Lion likes anything in the non-producer gold space and holds positions in all its picks. Antipa has a huge resource less than 40kms from Telfer, which is a great big hungry gold process facility recently acquired by Greatland Gold who plan to list on ASX. Greatland, of course, have the large and high grade Havieron deposit which is a similar trucking distance to Telfer, but is underground and will only ever provide a fraction of the annual tonnage the Telfer process plant can accommodate. Antipa’s gold project has wonderful valuation fundamentals to build a new mine and process plant, but it makes so much sense for Greatland to be looking at Antipa.

Brightstar Resources (ASX:BTR) – Becoming a gold producer in 2025 via third party ore sales. This is a very low capital expense initiation of production and carries zero construction / commissioning risk which is attractive. The free cash generated carries them into rejuvenating their own process plant at Laverton to become an “owner-operator” gold producer and also sponsors aggressive drilling at their 1.5Moz Sandstone project.

Saturn Metals (ASX:STN) – I don’t think this is on M&A radars yet, but with 1.84Moz of gold all in one place in the heart of the rapidly consolidating Leonora district it may appear. This is a low grade resource at 0.54g/t and I think a lot of investors wonder if that can work. We bought into Saturn because we are sure it does. Saturn’s Apollo hill is one big blob of ore, which means there is no need to duplicate mining fleet or think about any sort of “hub and spoke” arrangement to bring scattered ore to a central process facility.

Stephen Gorenstein – Ari Fund

Best commodity/investing idea 

Gold: We think US interest rate cuts will fuel the gold price.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Lithium: Even with increased demand there is too much supply to come back on stream.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) and Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) – With close to all time record A$ gold prices, these companies should generate very strong cashflows which the market will need to recognise.

Tim Hoff – Canaccord Genuity

Best commodity/investing idea

2025's going to be a tale of two halves. I think the first half's going to be dominated by uncertainty and change, because you've got Trump coming in and obviously that's going to be a dynamic factor. So the first half we're probably playing a really straight bat of looking at the gold names.

Copper's still topical across the board, but we don't think the macro drivers are there in the first half.

Everyone loves to always predict the demise of iron ore but this year, yet again it hasn't fallen like they said it would. Particularly as China will be trying to stimulate (its economy), we don't necessarily think they focus on construction, but it will have a positive effect on iron ore. So don't think iron ore will be as bad as what everyone thinks, to try be counter-consensus so hopefully I'm not horrendously wrong on that one.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Pricing's stabilised, pricing may even rise but lithium will be a difficult year in equity markets. Broad based lithium exposure without looking at true catalysts I think it's still risky next year. I do think investors should be starting to think about valuations and what they can buy assets for, but we don't think you're going to get a lot of commodity tailwinds.

Nickel's going to continue to be a really hard space to be in, we still see so much supply coming out of Indonesia.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Spartan Resources (ASX:SPR), Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) and Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX) – Northern Star is going to be a key gold name, Spartan is the obvious takeout target on the ASX now that De Grey is going off the market. (Top shareholder) Ramelius paid around $1 and everyday Spartan is trading towards that dollar is surely another day that Ramelius is looking at making a move there. Westgold has got a lot of growth this coming year.

Winsome Resources (ASX:WR1), Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL) and Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) – Canaccord's lithium stocks to focus on, Winsome has a large resource in Quebec, Canada, with an option to purchase and repurpose a disused diamond concentrator, Vulcan is at the crunch point of proving up its processing technology in geothermal lithium wells in Germany, and Pilbara is CG's pick for generic lithium exposure.

Meteoric Resources (ASX:MEI) and Brazilian Rare Earths (ASX:BRE) – In rare earths supply and demand and where current prices are, are at a disconnect. (These stocks) are both in Brazil, both with favourable cost profiles and capital profiles, both assets where we like the teams that are running them.

Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR) and Champion Iron (ASX:CIA) – We have Deterra (holds a royalty over BHP's Mining Area C project) as our iron ore exposure and maybe Champion Iron (high grade Canadian producer).

Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) and MAC Copper (ASX:MAC) – Mid-tier copper producers. You're starting to see some value emerge, so I think those will be very active names throughout the year, but I think investors are going to have to pick their moment for it. Invest countercyclical because whenever they run these stocks run really hard and people have a hard time buying these things at the top of the cycle.

WA1 Resources (ASX:WA1) – The stock's going through a bit of a pullback right now, so we can certainly see some value there. We do think that ultimately over the course of the next year, a lot more catalysts are delivered to show how that deposit (the Luni niobium discovery) can be unlocked.

David Franklyn – Argonaut Funds Management

Best commodity/investing idea

Copper: We expect copper to perform well in CY25, buoyed by a continued recovery in global economic growth. This will be underpinned by a US economy that has avoided a hard landing and is now in an interest rate easing cycle and a greater commitment to economic stimulus from China as it looks to improve consumer confidence and drive domestic demand growth.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Cobalt: We remain bearish on the cobalt price. The commodity has gone from battery metal favourite to pariah as supply has ramped up from Indonesia and the DRC whilst demand growth expectations have eased as battery technologies shift away from high cobalt composition.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Develop Global (ASX:DVP): Entering a critical phase as it shifts from mining services provider to copper zinc producer. Develop will bring its Woodlawn project in NSW into production in the first half of calendar 2025 and may also sell down a 20% interest in the project, which would realise sufficient capital to progress its second mining project, the Sulphur Springs copper/zinc project in Western Australia.

Greatland Gold (LSE:GGP): We see UK-listed Greatland Gold as a standout in the gold sector following the acquisition of the Telfer gold project and 70% of the Haveiron project it did not own from Newmont on attractive terms. The group will list on the ASX in the first half of calendar 2025.

Guy Le Page – RM Capital

Best commodity/investing idea

Uranium: CoP 29 saw the momentum shift back to nuclear with 31 countries pledging to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. While spot prices have softened since reach US$109/lb earlier in 2024 and are sitting around US$76/lb, longer term contracts have edged up in the mid 50s and are likely to move higher. With incentive prices for U somewhere in the range of US$110-US$120 /lb, there is plenty of room for U to move up as the tailing winds pick up in 2025. Not everyone, however, shares this view with UBS believing the medium-term outlook is flat with a 7% increase in uranium supply over 2025 including 12% from Kazataprom.

Gold: I believe we will see gold move through US$3,000/ounce in 2025 as interest rates come off. Supply growth from mining and recycling is expected to ease price pressures by mid-2025.

Copper: Volatile in 2024 after reaching all time highs of US$5.11/lb before being sold off heavily due to anaemic Chinese growth outlook. While shortfalls of between 2Mt (AustMine) and 9Mt (BMO Capital Markets) are projected by 2030, there are risks about the “electrification drive” particularly in the wake of Donald Trump's suggestion that he may seek to unwind the Inflation Reduction Act.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Nickel: For 2025, nickel prices are expected to trade between $16,000 and $18,000/t, with potential for upward movement if supply constraints intensify or Chinese stainless-steel production exceeds expectations. However, elevated inventories and a shift toward LFP batteries in the EV market pose risks to sustained price increases.

Lithium: Surpluses are projected of 296-344,000t LCE in 2025. This outlook assumes stable demand, but the potential for trade tariffs on electric vehicles – particularly in the US – points to downside risks for lithium demand and highlights further volatility in the market. Ozzie spodumene producers are likely to struggle with prices hovering around US$800/dmt with incentive prices of US$1400 to US$1500/t required to bring on new production a long way off.

Lead: Challenges for the lead market include ongoing competition from alternative materials which could limit price growth. Relatively stable production and recycling activities ensure no significant constraints, leading to a potential oversupply scenario, which could exert downward pressure on prices.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Cyclone Metals (ASX:CLE) – JORC resources at CLE's Iron Bear in Canada total approximately 16 billion tonnes at 29.5% Fe. Entered a MoU which could see Vale spend US$140m over two study phases ahead of a decision to mine. The focus of the proposed JV will be the production of DR concentrate with the production of these high-grade magnetite pellets using natural gas as opposed to coal. This “green” iron ore provides CLE with an advantage in light of the proposed CBAM regulations in Europe being introduced from 2026. Enormous leverage if Vale see this project through to a feasibility study over the next two to three years.

HyTerra Limited (ASX:HYT): Its "white hot hydrogen" has a great future in the US, and it has advantages over grey, blue and green hydrogen, since it requires less processing, results in a lower cost range. Koloma is a US-based startup backed by billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos that is situated close to Hyterra’s projects. Received a major $21.9m investment from Fortescue to fund and expand exploration. There has been some weakness in the stock, however it is still a ‘compelling buy’ moving into an active drilling program in early 2025.

Everest Metals Corporation (ASX:EMC): Recently raised $3.9m to advance the Revere gold and Mt Edon critical mineral projects. Its Mt Dimer deposit has 42,700oz at 2g/t Au. Gold projects should generate reasonably significant cash flow. Mt Edon has a mineral resource estimate of 3.6Mt at 0.22% rubidium oxide, a specialty market which is supply constrained.

American West Metals (ASX:AW1): At the Storm Copper Project in Canada, the mineral resource estimate has expanded by 117%, with 20.6 Mt at 1.1% Cu and 3.3 g/t Ag with the majority of the MRE in the top 200m. There are numerous targets identified in the 2024 campaign to follow up next year as well as regional targets such as the Tornado, Blizzard and Tempest areas.

The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interviews in this article are solely those of the interviewees and do not represent the views of Stockhead.

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