To recover, Dutton needs to understand what changed voter intentions and craft his budget reply speech and later policy statements to get him back in the game.
I am going to list seven strategies he must adopt, and readers can score his budget reply and later statements against these benchmarks.
The biggest recent change for Dutton is that US President Donald Trump has become very unpopular among significant parts of the Australian electorate.
As a result of simple mistakes, Dutton is now classified by large numbers of “anti-Trump” Australians as the local version of Trump.
The Liberals in Victoria will link Albanese with the troubled Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan and win lots of votes.
The ALP will do the same with Dutton and Trump with a similar outcome but spread Australia-wide.
Dutton’s first task is disposing of the three silly distractions that linked him to Trump so he can then introduce policies that top or compete with the government on power costs, housing, defence and racial relations.
1. Dutton needs to confess that he has learned from Trump and Elon Musk. Australia clearly needs to reform the public service by delivering the same services and benefits more efficiently using the new technology. Dutton’s proposed mass sackings seemed akin to Musk. Not only did voters see him as an Australian Trump but, as I described in my budget commentary, the proposed sackings came at a time when unemployment among higher middle-income executives from the private sector is at record levels.
Accordingly, mass sackings in the public sector created horror around most Australian capitals, not just in Canberra.
At this stage, what is required is a close look at how to mobilise and retrain existing public servants to use the new IT technologies to reduce the cost of delivering services. Mass sackings do not achieve those objectives.
2. Similarly, there must be a flexible approach to working from home. Dutton lost big chunks of the female vote by apparently proposing banning most working from home in the public service.
3. Allowing small business to deduct entertainment was a side track and can now be replaced by abandoning a budget small business disaster. Dutton replaces the lunches by dumping the government’s non-compete proposals, which will stop many small enterprises employing people and destroy their goodwill.
Take those three steps, and Dutton can then compete on four vital national issues.
4. Defence. The ALP has its head in the sand on the level of defence spending. The Coalition defence policy should concentrate first on improving immediate protection via drones and missiles. They have proved very effective in Ukraine and we have world-leading technology. We need to build a massive industry so we are independent. We do not need more of the failed JSF-F35 aircraft, which have become potential flying coffins because they must be refuelled in the air too often as a result of their limited range. Musk has explained the JSF-F35 disaster to Trump and Trump proposes developing the F-47, which will have the range we desperately need. It’s early days, but we must start.
5. Power costs. The Australian renewable investment strategy has boosted power costs. We are concealing the inevitable rise by subsidies. These are set to get bigger and bigger and are unsustainable. Industry knows this.
We should have concentrated our renewable investment on warehouse rooftop solar near existing power lines. But we must make the most of what we have done, and we do that with gas-fired power, which can be turned on when renewables are not available, allowing us to reduce the use of coal. This will reduce power costs and lower subsidies.
After the Victorian election, we can use the state’s abundant low-cost gas, but Beetaloo in the Northern Territory can underwrite the east coast needs. Remove the crazy nuclear bans but defer investment because the US is planning massive investment to improve nuclear. Wait for the new technology. Meanwhile, if a company wants to erect a nuclear plant alongside a cloud storage facility, then there is no ban.
6. Housing. The budget helped skills, but did not properly address the demand and supply issue. The opposition needs to be very tough on states that boost housing costs via drawn-out approval processes. Many young Australians have given up on housing. Reinvigorate the desire via many forms of help, including proper bank lending rules and the use of super for what is the best retirement asset. But embrace and develop the ALP’s plan to develop technology to lower building costs.
7. Culture wars are playing out in many Australian universities and education institutions. We desperately need the Coalition’s Jacinta Nampijinpa Price to stop the madness.
There have been many elections where leaders have come from behind. If Dutton understands the above, he is in for a good chance.
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