Rain dampens bumper winter grain crop forecasts

Australian farmers are expecting another bumper winter crop but excessive rain has impacted production in NSW and Victoria.

Australia is on track to harvest a near-record winter grain crop despite the impact of excessive rainfall in NSW and Victoria.

Rabobank’s 2022-23 Australian Winter Crop Forecast found that despite the weather challenges the winter crop is expected to come at 61.9 million tonnes.

In the newly-released report, the specialist agribusiness bank said the nation is set to harvest its third consecutive bumper winter crop and is forecast to be down only 1 per cent on last year – which broke all-time production records. The total grain crop is estimated to be 41 per cent above the five-year average.

RaboResearch agricultural analyst Dennis Voznesenski said while farmers in some parts of Australia will “reap record or near-record crops”, others in areas across NSW and Victoria are facing “yield, volume and quality downgrades due to excessive rain, washed out fields and unharvestable crops”.

RaboResearch agricultural analyst Dennis Voznesensk.

At the same time Western Australia and South Australia are set to break production records.

Rabobank forecasts WA to harvest a record total crop of 23.47 million tonnes, up 2 per cent on last year’s record and South Australia is also preparing for another record harvest this season, of almost 10.7 million tonnes, 1 per cent above the last record set in 2016-17 and a 27 per cent increase on last year.

Mr Voznesenski said NSW was the hardest hit by excess rain with the state’s grain and oilseed production expected to come in 28 per cent below last year, at 13.6 million tonnes.

“Depending on the region, only between 75 to 92 per cent of the state’s planted grains

and oilseed hectares will actually be harvested,” he said.

“Crop quality has also been significantly impacted, with even more feed-quality wheat now expected from the state than last year.”

Until the recent flooding events, Victoria’s total winter crop was expected to come in at 11.5 million tonnes, an all-time record exceeding the record 2020-21 season by 17 per cent and up on last year by 26 per cent.

Mr Voznesenski said it was too soon to quantify the impact of heavy rainfall and flooding in recent days in Victoria on the state’s overall production, but said there was significant impact to yields on low-lying crops with many under water in central and northern Victoria.

“We are going to have to wait for all the forecast rainfall to come through and for waters to recede to see the full impact of the rains on production,” he said.

Queensland is forecast to have a total crop harvest of 2.6 million tonnes for the season, the state’s production will be 6 per cent down on the previous year.

Too much rain has robbed Queensland of a record year, with excessive rainfall through the season resulting in many regions harvesting 90 per cent of planted crop hectares, with some further south harvesting only 80 to 85 per cent.

Too much rain as destroyed many winter crops.

Nationally, Rabobank forecasts wheat production to come in at 35.5 million tonnes – 2 per cent down on last year, but 47 per cent above the five-year average. Barley production is expected to reach a record 14.8 million tonnes, up 7 per cent on last season and 31 per cent above the five-year average.

The canola crop is forecast to reach a record 7.2 million tonnes, also a 7 per cent increase on the previous year and a whopping 81 per cent up on the five-year average. .

Mr Voznesenski said NSW farmers said excessive rain leading into harvest followed significant issues at planting, where some farmers replanted up to three times or had to abandon hectares all together.

“Across NSW, parts of Victoria and southern Queensland, we expect to see considerably less hectares harvested than were planted due to excessive rains either at planting, during the growing season or leading right into harvest,” he said.

“And the challenge of a wet harvest will be compounded by labour shortages, with an

estimated 30 per cent of farms in Queensland and 27 per cent in NSW having to change

harvest strategies as a result of insufficient labour.”

Rabobank said Australia will have plentiful grain and oilseeds for the export market but the ability to supply world markets will be limited by supply chain bottlenecks, both in regional areas and with capacity at Australian ports.

The exportable surplus in Australia from the 2022-23 harvest is expected to exceed the

nation’s official estimated 2021 national export capacity of 47.5 million tonnes.

“When an approximate figure is also added for still unsold 2021-22 crop, the exportable surplus could rise to 53.5 million tonnes, and this does not include an unknown volume of grain owned by the grain trade itself,” Mr Voznesenski said.

“We expect local prices to be pressured below global levels during the key harvest window from now until January and likely into late March.

“Growers may see some local price upside between late March and May, ahead of the

northern hemisphere harvest. But from late quarter two next year – when northern

hemisphere grain starts coming on to the market – and with an expected rise in the

Australian dollar, we are likely to see downward pressure on local prices.”