Property price slowdown tipped for 2024: PropTrack
Housing researcher PropTrack expects property prices to continue climbing through 2024 to record high, albeit at a slower pace.
Property price growth is expected to slow in 2024, but will continue to climb to new heights as interest rates stabilise, according to PropTrack’s latest forecasts.
The housing researcher expects home prices to rise between 1 per cent and 4 per cent nationally in the new year, a notable slowdown on the 5.5 per cent increase in 2023 so far.
PropTrack director of economic research Cameron Kusher said fewer homes on the market, sluggish new home building and migration were helping to hold up prices, offsetting the impact of the highest interest rates in 12 years.
“It’s reasonable to expect that price growth is going to slow next year over the next 12 months, but equally, we find it hard to see a situation whereby prices start falling, especially given the momentum we’re already seeing in the market,” Mr Kusher said.
Smaller capitals are expected to outperform larger markets, largely driven by buyers facing a lack of choice. Perth is expected to undergo the highest levels of growth in 2024, up 5 to 8 per cent, followed by Adelaide (up 4 to 7 per cent), and Brisbane (up 3 to 6 per cent).
More moderate growth is expected in Sydney (up 2 to 5 per cent) and Melbourne (up 1 to 4 per cent), as more affordable homes become available.
A middling performance is tipped in Canberra (down 1 per cent to up 2 per cent), Hobart (down 2 per cent to up 1 per cent), and Darwin (down 3 per cent to 0 per cent).
Property prices through 2023 proved remarkably resilient to the impact of 13 interest rate rises in 18 months, with values gaining 6.6 per cent in capital cities and 2.8 per cent in regional areas.
Homeowners were given a reprieve on rate hikes on Tuesday, but those with an average home loan of about $500,000 are paying more than $1000 in additional repayments each month.
The total number of homes for sale are at historically low levels, almost a quarter below the decade average for November.
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