Outlook Conference: Labor, Greens ‘plagiarising Corbyn, Sanders’
Outlook Conference 2018: Bill Shorten denies he is waging class warfare, reaffirming his commitments to higher taxes for the rich.
- Shorten: ‘It’s not about envy’
- ‘We’re working on our narrative’
- PM’s good news on tax
- ‘Where’s the economic narrative?’
- ‘Australia is in trouble’
- COAG ‘more than Tim Tams’
Hello and welcome to our rolling covering over the 2018 Outlook Conference, held today and tomorrow. Prime Minister Scott Morrison delivered the lunchtime address.
Topics covered today include how Australia can manage monetary policy to deliver growth, is the political system delivering change and where to next for the national energy policy?
Richard Ferguson 8.43pm: Shorten’s open mind on tax cuts
Bill Shorten has told the 2018 Outlook Conference he has an “open mind” about Scott Morrison’s proposed tax cuts for small and medium businesses.
The Prime Minister announced at the conference today he would fast track tax cuts for businesses with a turnover of up to $50 million to 2020-21
“I have an open mind about fast-tracking tax cuts for small and medium enterprises that go up to $50 million,” the Oppostion Leader said tonight.
“We need to see the detail, we need to see where the money is coming from ... the nation is over the two major parties simply saying no to each other because it was someone else’s proposition.”
But Mr Shorten also said he did not believe the tax cuts were the answer to tackling low wages growth.
“But what I also say tonight is that no should imagine a tax cut for small business is any kind of substitute for a fair dinkum wages policy.
“There is no way to tell any company receiving a tax cut must pass that on through increased wages.”
Richard Ferguson 8.00pm Shorten denies waging class warfare
Bill Shorten has denied he is waging class warfare at the 2018 Outlook Conference in Melbourne.
The Opposition Leader used his dinner address to reaffirm his commitments to higher taxes for the rich and large spending on public services.
But Mr Shorten said Prime Minister Scott Morrison was wrong, earlier today at the conference, to say Labor was dividing Australians.
“My opponent – even today at this conference – says this is somehow about ‘envy’. But that’s not true,” he said.
“Quite frankly, I don’t mind how rich anyone is. I don’t begrudge anyone their financial success.
“But for this country to work, for our shared national enterprise to thrive, it can’t just be those who are already very well-off who keep doing very well.”
Richard Ferguson 5.24pm Labor’s plans ‘a recipe for chaos’
Kelly O’Dwyer has told the 2018 Outlook Conference that Labor’s plans to increase wages is a “recipe for chaos and conflict.”
“I think there is an acceptance that there’s been slower wages growth, that’s just a fact,” she said.
“But the Labor Party, together with the ACTU, has got a recipe for chaos and conflict that will do nothing to increase people’s wages and will do a lot to drive down the number of jobs available.
“What the ACTU has promoted, and is endorsed by Bill Shorten and the Labor Party, is to have industrial conflict right across our economy.”
Labor’s Andrew Leigh the decline of the unions had actually contributed to low wages growth.
“Workers aren’t getting a pay rise, that ought to be something we can unite around,” he said.
“That’s got to do with the fact that organised labour in my lifetime has never had less influence.”
Rick Morton 5.11pm Labor, Greens ‘plagiarising Corbyn’
Labor and the Greens have “plagiarised” the politics of envy from Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders and threaten to do nothing for low wages growth by forcing a model of “industrial conflict,” a senior government minister says.
Industrial Relations and Jobs Minister Kelly O’Dwyer told the Outlook Conference that fairness ought to be about tackling “inherited poverty, not inherited wealth.” Read the full story here.
Richard Ferguson 4.24pm: The Is have it
Inequality is a real problem in Australia and more power needs to go back to employees, Labor’s Andrew Leigh says.
“Too much inequality can undermine community. Making us a society of ‘I’, rather than a society of ‘we’,” the opposition assistant treasury spokesman told the 2018 Outlook Conference.
“Today we have a real wage underhang. We need to tilt the power balance a little back to employees.”
“Inequality is a global challenge ... and we need to tackle it here in Australia.”
Richard Ferguson 4.13pm: ‘Fairness doesn’t equal equality’
Fairness is not sameness, Kelly O’Dwyer has told the 2018 Outlook Conference.
The Industrial Relations Minister said recently announced tax cuts for small businesses, and her opposition to Labor’s negative gearing and superannuation, were grounded in a philosophy of fairness.
“Fairness is not sameness ... fairness is not equality of outcomes,” she said.
“The politics of envy – pitting the haves against the have nots - is destructive economically and socially.”
She also dismissed comparisons of inequality in Australia to the United Kingdom and United States, where populists have done well electorally.
“Comparisons to the United States and the United Kingdom are not correct,” she said. “They do not have our safety nets, they do not have our tax and transfer systems.”
John Ferguson 3.15pm: ‘Here’s my narrative’
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has defended the Coalition’s economic record but conceded he had been working to improve his government’s messaging.
This was after former treasurer Peter Costello stridently attacked the Coalition’s budget performance since 2007.
“I think I’ve set out today, I think very plainly, what we’ve been seeking to achieve,’’ Mr Morrison said.
“And I think we’ve talked a lot over the last three years what we’ve been doing and we have.’’
The past seven weeks had been about providing an improved message.
“Well, you know what, an economic narrative is about what you believe as well,’’ he said.
“And what I’m seeking to do is connect with Australians about what our government passionately believes in.
“And why we think taxes should be lower.
“Why we think some people should not be dragged down and demonised for the simple reality is that they go out there and create jobs.’’
John Stensholt 2.52pm: Market reaction ‘no surprise’
Business leaders have warned Australian companies need to brace for an on-going trade war between the United States and China and ride out any short-term stockmarket fluctuations that will happen due to uncertain economic outlook.
Speaking at the Melbourne Institute/The Australian Economic and Social Outlook conference on Thursday, Seek chief executive Andrew Bassat said the market fall on Wall Street overnight that subsequently hit Australian stocks was not surprising.
“The market was priced to perfection in the US and to an extend in China. So any worries that things won’t going to continue was always going to happen at some stage.
“The trade wars don’t think they are going to end soon. We used to be just reliant on the US, now we are on reliant on both the US and China. If they both go backwards I can’t see any other alternatives for Australia.
Jayne Hrdlicka, CEO of a2 Milk Company, said she had noted her company’s share price fall today but said the market needed to understand that a2 had not been hit by any trade war fallout as yet.
“We are a discretionary item. We are a fundamental source of nutrition. We are a bit protected a consequence of that.
“So I would hope that while there will be ups and downs from a market standpoint…I would hope that we can ride that out…and everything we see from a business point of views suggests we can.”
Wesfarmers and AGL director Diane Smith-Gander said companies should not react to short-term market movements and stay focused on how wider trends would effect their business.
“Australian companies know we operate in an open economy. Our trading partners will do what they do. So Australian companies have to have robust management strategies for these moments.”
She said business was disappointed that “politics was winning over policy” at the moment, while Mr Bassat questioned the quality of policies being promoted at the federal level.
Mr Bassat also said “we are a long way off where we should be” in terms of getting the right sort of leadership from Canberra.
“We’ve had the Australian government disappoint us and get in the way more that we have had from the Chinese government.”
Richard Ferguson 1.46pm: ‘Working on economic narrative’
Scott Morrison says he’s been working to restore an economic narrative to the Coalition, after one of its grandees said there wasn’t one.
Former Treasurer Peter Costello told the 2018 Outlook Conference earlier today that he “waited” for Malcolm Turnbull to establish such a narrative and that he is waiting.
The Prime Minister, at the Outlook Conference lunch, said he was more focused on explaining his economic philosophy to Australians.
“I do and I don’t (agree with Mr Costello),” he told The Australian’s associate editor John Ferguson.
“We’ve talked a lot about what we’ve done (over the past three years) ... what I’ve been doing in these past few weeks is talking about why we’re doing it.”
Rick Morton 1.41pm: MPs ‘don’t know what they want’
Former Treasurer Peter Costello explains why the Coalition has fractured and left MPs to band together in a vacuum. Read the full story here.
Richard Ferguson 1.27pm: PM delivers the good news
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced his plans to bring forward $3.2 billion in small and medium business tax cuts at the 2018 Outlook Conference.
A cut of small business tax to 25 per cent will now be brought forward to 2020-21, if the government can get the support of parliament.
“If you’re a plumber ... a newsagent or a copy shop, a dry cleaner, any of these things, this is good news for you,” he said.
The Prime Minister has also repeated his “fair go for those who have a go” mantra on social welfare and tax.
“Prosperity pays for our social safety net, not sentiment.”
The PM’s speech comes after Chris Bowen said earlier that he’d reveal “in coming days” whether Labor will back or oppose plans to fast-track small business tax cuts.
Richard Ferguson 12.40pm: ‘Government isn’t working’
More joint sittings of Parliament and suppressing the growth of the Senate could help governments get their agendas through, The Australian’s editor-at-large says.
Paul Kelly said: “Elections don’t seem to matter anymore,” because senates and oppositions stop governments from legislating their manifesto promises.
“The machinery of government is simply not working ... we’ve got to fix this ... it’s as if after the republic we suspended discussion of these issues.”
“This is our parliament, this is our parliament, and it’s demoralising.”
Paul Kelly says the next federal govt will be a test of whether the political system in Australia can function meaningfully #OutlookConf18
— John Ferguson@theoz (@fergusonjw) October 11, 2018
Michael Roddan 12.30pm: How to achieve holy grail of economic policy
Professor Ian Harper, the former chair of the government’s competition policy review, has launched a stirring defence of cities and immigration as Australia’s engine of economic growth and source of productivity gains.
Speaking at the Melbourne Institute/The Australian Economic and Social Outlook Conference, Mr Harper said raising productivity, with a key focus on making cities accessible and liveable, was how to achieve the “holy grail” of economic policy of both growth and equity.
“Migration of course is right at front and centre here. We benefit an enormous amount from migration,” he said.
Mr Harper’s call for a better focus on delivering infrastructure and focusing on cities as economic growth centres comes as both state and federal politicians call for the country to take a closer look at its migration intake. Proposals have been floated to either send migrants to regional centres instead of cities or to cull the intake of migrants to ease congestion on cities that have been starved of vital infrastructure over successive decades.
Opposition leader Bill Shorten wrote to Prime Minister Scott Morrison earlier this week urging a bipartisan approach to reviewing the country’s immigration policy. NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian has called for immigration to the state to be halved, while NSW opposition leader Luke Foley has urged the rate of population growth be dramatically slowed.
While Mr Harper’s competition policy review, which was launched under the Abbott government, didn’t specifically focus on Australia’s cities, its recommendations were made with cities in mind as the driver of economic growth.
“It’s no longer the case…that Australia is a great quarry and farm,” Mr Harper said.
“The bulk of Australia’s growth is being driven by services….in our great cities,” he said, noting that 80 per cent of economic output is produced by cities.
“What drives productivity growth…is innovation,” Mr Harper said. “The source of this creativity…is when we are together. When we stimulate each other. The more diverse we are…the more creative we are,” he said.
“These are the debates that are presently live for us.”
“Importantly, in my view, we need to make our cities work. What matters for us is how we manage the accessibility and the liveability of our cities,” he said.
Deputy chairman of the Productivity Commission Karen Chester said there needed to be more effective levers to make better economic policy between the federal government and the states.
Governments at all levels needed to better harness data and evidence to create the right “policy architecture” to do the heavy lifting in driving better outcomes, she said.
“If we find ourselves in the absence of effective government, economic growth with equity will become elusive,” Ms Chester said.
Opposition treasury spokesman Chris Bowen used the economic outlook conference this morning to announce that Labor would establish a COAG economic reform council, with an independent board and a mandate to develop the agenda for COAG meetings and monitor the body’s performance.
Mr Chester said there was a risk Australia could fall victim to “growing, seething mistrust in public administration” if government failed to avoid “pernicious, populist policies”.
She said putting “independence back into the Intergenerational Report”, defunding poor quality programs after evaluating their success of failure “like we used to” and producing longer term fiscal projections for major programs alongside an expanded role for the Parliamentary Budget Office were needed to combat the erosion of faith in government.
Richard Ferguson 12.15pm: Costello slams government
Peter Costello has slammed the government for a lack of economic narrative, and deposed Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull for never delivering one.
“You know, when Malcolm Turnbull challenged Tony Abbott for the leadership of the Liberal Party he had two things to say,” Mr Costello said.
“He said we’ve lost 30 Newspolls in a row and the government had no economic narrative. Now that’s fine, but I kept waiting for the economic narrative to come. And I’m not sure that it did.”
He also dismissed the lack of bipartisanship in Canberra, the Senate crossbench, and the rise of social media as reasons for policy stagnation.
Richard Ferguson 12.10pm: ‘Australia is in trouble’
Famed economist Ross Garnaut says “Australia is in trouble” and that business lobbies, media, and “cash-for comment economic modelling” share much of the blame.
“Australia is in trouble ... poor political leadership is only part of the problem,” the former BankWest chairman and Hawke adviser said.
“Words shouted the loudest are taken as facts ... but no matter how loud business lobbies and media outlets shout, there’s no proof it has actually helped their own policy outcomes.
“Climate and tax policy are examples of this ... we need to listen to each other’s opinions.”
“Australia is in trouble†- Ross Garnaut #OutlookConf18 â¦@australianâ© pic.twitter.com/gjZdx5wrkj
— Richard Ferguson (@RichAFerguson) October 11, 2018
Richard Ferguson 11.50am: ‘Don’t blow business away’
Higher wages will come through investing in big businesses and taking down red tape, Business Council chief Jennifer Westacott says.
Ms Westacott opened the “Politicans Delivering Change” session at the Outlook Conference with a defence of business in an anti-business political climate.
“The link between productivity and real wages is not broken .. why are we trying to blow private enterprise out of the water?” she said.
“Why don’t we double down on red tape? Why don’t we look at allowance expenses? Why do have we planning approval that takes 5 to 7 years?
“Businesses innovate and create jobs ... this will bring higher wages.”
Richard Ferguson 10.45am: COAG ‘more than Tim Tams’
COAG is a key economic body and “about more than the consumption of biscuits”, Chris Bowen has told the Outlook conference.
The opposition treasury spokesman outlined his plans to make COAG part of a Shorten Government’s economic programme and lashed the cancellation of the last COAG meeting by Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
“The Prime Minister said all that would happen if COAG was cancelled if there’d be fewer Tim Tams eaten ... I think that is an insult,” he said.
“It is an insult to the great work COAG does ... it’s about much more than the consumption of biscuits.”
“The PM said the only difference from cancelling COAG would be fewer Tim Tams eaten ... I think that’s an insult,†- Bowen #outlookconf18 @australian https://t.co/BsjYjf0CZy pic.twitter.com/uliLp3ZTUJ
— Richard Ferguson (@RichAFerguson) October 10, 2018
As outlined in The Australian today, Mr Bowen said he would set up a COAG economic reform council, with an independent board, to form the economic agenda for COAG meetings.
“A properly resourced body could add to the quality of the federalism discussion, much like the National Governors Association in the US,” he said.
“Provided its scope is clearly defined and its operations well organised, it could bring added efficiencies to the commonwealth-state economic, financial and administrative arrangements.”
Mr Bowen also said any economic policy if he was Treasurer would focus on improving indigenous disadvantage and lauded the party’s recently announced cash splash for public schools.
He also told the audience at the Grand Hyatt he looked forward to the next Outlook Conference, but hoped to be coming in a different capacity.
“This is my fifth conference as shadow treasurer,” he said, “I hope it is my last appearance as shadow treasurer.”
#OutlookConf18 â¦@australianâ© shadow treasurer says he hopes to come back next year with a different title pic.twitter.com/IZyc9pBQhG
— Helen Trinca (@helentrinca) October 10, 2018
Richard Ferguson 10.30am: ‘Growth won’t solve problems’
The Productivity Commission’s deputy chairwoman has called for more attention on mental health, Indigenous disadvantage, and chronic disease, and says economic growth alone won’t solve these problems.
“Think mental health, Indigeneity, chronic disease, intergenerational stories of poor economic participation for parents and poor educational outcomes for their children,” Karen Chester said.
“Clearly the interventions needed for this bedrock of entrenched disadvantage go beyond our current policy playlist. Even alongside economic growth. A bedrock patently in need of ‘handmade’ policies.”
Ms Chester also delivered a stinging critique of the nation’s superannuation system which she said “harms young workers”.
“Our Superannuation Inquiry has found a system of twin failures. Persistent underperformance and unintended multiple accounts,” she said.
“ And the costs revealed to be highly regressive in their impact – harming the young and lower income workers the most.”
Richard Ferguson 10.15am: Australia ‘no longer quarry’
Australia is no longer a “great quarry” and we need to make our cities work, a board member of the RBA has warned.
Ian Harper, speaking in his role as Melbourne Business School dean, said that Australia’s cities must be a key focus for future growth policy.
“Eighty per cent of our output is produced in cities. It’s no longer the case that Australia is a great quarry or a farm,” he said.
“How do we make Australia’s cities work in the long run? That’s the big question for me.”
#outlookconf18 Ian Harper brilliant analysis of cities as source of productivity. Turns out cities provide our competitive advantage @australian @MelbInstUOM we need to make our cities work he says
— Helen Trinca (@helentrinca) October 10, 2018
Richard Ferguson 9.55am: Economic growth ‘down to firms’
Long-term economic growth is not down to governments but firms, the Reserve Bank’s economics chief has told the 2018 Outlook Conference.
Luci Ellis, the RBA’s Assistant Governor for Economics, was the first speaker for the conference’s first session, with opposition treasury spokesman Chris Bowen coming up soon.
She said monetary policy is important for promoting economic stability and growth in the short term, but ultimately the nation still had to rely on business making the right decisions.
“Growth is not something that is bestowed upon a nation by external forces. And though domestic institutions matter, neither is growth in the long run something that governments can bestow upon society,” she said.
“Instead it’s about the myriad of individual decisions within firms and other organisations to find better ways of doing things.
“Monetary policy doesn’t have much effect on the feasible trend rate of growth. There are many drivers of long-run productivity growth, but monetary policy would be way down that long list.”
Richard Ferguson 9.35am: ‘Reason under assault’
The 2018 Outlook Conference has been opened with a call to defend fact and reason, and fond memories of one of Australia’s greatest policy architects.
The Australian’s editor-at-large Paul Kelly called the conference, the 12th since 2002, a unique chance to discuss social and economic policy at a time when “reason is under assault”.
“This conference brings together the politicians, the policy experts, the academics and journalists,” he told the audience at the Grand Hyatt, “It charts the progress of mindset and the nation.
“And it is at a time when even reason is under assault.”
University of Melbourne Vice Chancellor Duncan Maskell, who is in his second week in the job, said the conference would be a “fact-based” exchange of ideas.
“I particularly welcome the media ... it is heartening to see so many interested in fact-based evidence and policy,” he said.
The conference opened up with a minute’s silence for the late John Deeble, the architect of Medicare who died earlier this week at the age of 87.
“John was a friend of mine,” Mr Kelly said, “I remember those days in the early 1970s when John was involved in the development of Medibank.”
Melbourne Institute director Abigail Payne called the late Mr Deeble a great figure in Australian academia and policy-making.
Richard Ferguson 9.00am: Tax, COAG on today’s menu
Attendees are rolling in for the first day of the 2018 Outlook Conference, hosted by The Australian and the Melbourne Institute. And the event is already making news.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison will use his lunchtime address at the conference, in Melbourne’s Grand Hyatt, to reveal his plan to fast-track $3.2 billion worth of tax cuts for small to medium businesses by 2020-21.
“Our government is unashamedly on the side of the women and men who run small and medium-sized businesses in this country,” Mr Morrison will say in his speech.
“And we’re on the side of the millions of people they employ.
“This is good news for all Australians — lower company tax supports more investment, higher productivity, more jobs and higher wages.”
Labor’s treasury spokesman Chris Bowen will also detail his plans to use COAG to drive economic reform if the ALP wins the next election.
Later in the day, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will give a dinner address.
First up this morning will University of Melbourne Vice Chancellor Duncan Maskell and The Australian’s editor-at-large Paul Kelly to open up the conference.
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