Optimistic NAB chief Andrew Irvine tips economic growth for coming year

National Australia Bank expects the economy to grow in the coming year, with boss Andrew Irvine sounding a note of optimism for businesses.

NAB Group CEO Andrew Irvine says the economy will grow in 2025.

National Australia Bank expects the economy to grow in the coming year, with boss Andrew Irvine sounding a note of optimism for businesses despite uncertainty over rates and the global outlook.

Mr Irvine on Monday said many businesses were thriving in the current environment.

“As Australia’s leading business bank, we want to help our business customers to thrive and achieve their goals,“ Mr Irvine said. “Thankfully, most Australian businesses are doing just this, and Australia can expect growth in fiscal 2025.”

Australians possess “a can-do spirit and a tremendous ability to find opportunity in challenge”, he said.

“This is being tested at the moment by cost of living pressures and inflation,” Mr Irvine said.

The comments come after slowing demand in the economy shone through in the latest growth figures.

National accounts data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics earlier in December showed Australia’s economy grew by just 0.3 per cent in the September quarter, and 0.8 per cent over the year. The market had expected annual growth of 1.1 per cent.

Outside of the pandemic, it was the weakest annual growth rate since the 1990s and was heavily propped up by government spending.

The weaker-than-expected figures prompted some market watchers to predict the Reserve Bank would bring forward rate cuts, potentially to February 2025.

NAB last month pushed out its rate cut forecast to May, warning the central bank was unlikely to have enough confidence in the trajectory of inflation by February.

“We revert to our earlier expectation for a first cut in May 2025. From there we continue to see a steady profile of one cut per quarter back to 3.1 per cent by mid 2026,” the bank’s economists said in November.

The rate outlook has been made more uncertain by US president-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, which some market watchers have warned could raise global inflation.

Speaking at NAB’s annual result in November shortly after the US election, Mr Irvine warned rate cuts may be pushed back if Mr Trump followed through on his election promises.

He also cautioned of a further increase in troubled business loans, as the lender reported a spike in those on its watch list and noted a range of industries were struggling.

Mr Irvine called out loan stress and impairments at NAB across business customers in industries including construction, agribusiness, manufacturing, discretionary spending-related industries and supply chain-linked companies in food-related sectors.