Trump will speak directly to his base not the market

As Trump prepares his speech to the joint Houses of Congress, he’ll be listening to the true believers not Wall Street.

US President Donald Trump walks from Marine One to the White House. (AFP PHOTO / Brendan Smialowski)

When President Trump starts speaking to the joint Houses of Congress tomorrow, global market operators will focus on every word. Never before has a President of the US so besotted the markets.

But Trump will have a wider agenda because he now knows exactly what buttons to press to excite his supporter base.

Whereas political leaders in Australia and around the world rely on polling companies (often linked to media companies), in the Trump administration the White House conducts its own polling of those who have chosen to receive the White House emails. A large proportion of the enormous White House email list will be supporters.

Accordingly, this speech will be crafted around the White House polls rather than the agendas set by the media or the markets. The polls require respondents to register where they live in the US or Canada and so if tax details do not rank high in the White House poll, global markets will be disappointed.

Given the complexity of the Trump tax proposals, it would also make sense not to rush them. (How to navigate through Trump’s brave new world, February 17)

Trump’s speech will be directed at reinforcing and promising in the areas where his people have supported previous actions and want more action.

A great many Australians understandably hate President Trump but whatever your views it is important to appreciate his unique way of operating and how he is seeking to involve his supporters. It’s a technique our Prime Minister will need to consider.

At the weekend, the White House emailed those who accepted the invitation to register on its list, including me:

“In just two days, President Donald J. Trump will deliver his highly anticipated first Address to a Joint Session of Congress. There is an incredible spirit of optimism sweeping across the Nation, and in preparation for this address, the President has hosted numerous listening sessions at the White House. During these meetings he has heard from men and women from all over the country about issues that are impacting American families, communities, and workers. Now is your chance to give your input. We want to know what issues you want President Trump to focus on and your ideas for the future of our country”.

And he gave his email audience the chance to put a tick against any of the following of his “accomplishments” where the readers considered them “most significant” (and there was scope to add comments).

1) Withdrawal from the trans-Pacific Partnership

2) Reviving key job-creating energy projects such as the Keystone Pipeline

3) Directing the Department of Defence to develop a plan to defeat ISIS

4) Enacting regulatory reform to begin to dismantle Obama-era, job-killing regulations

5) Implementing Executive Orders that focus on reducing crime, restoring public safety, dismantling transnational criminal organisations, and protecting our brave law enforcement officials

6) Minimizing the burden of Obamacare, while clearing a path toward repeal and replace

7) Creating the United States-Canada Council for Women Entrepreneurs and Business Leaders

8) Negotiating with companies to bring thousands of jobs back to America

9) Nominating Judge Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court

10) Working with over 30 foreign leaders to discuss shared security

Now that is of course pure public relations but my guess is that the speech will emphasise the top three or four selections from his audience.

And his audience also got the chance to tell the President what issues they think are the most important for the administration to focus on. And they got help with the following subjects nominated: Budget; Taxes; Jobs; Reducing Regulations; National Security and Fighting ISIS; Repeal and Replace Obamacare; Domestic Security and Fighting Crime; Education; Immigration Reform; Veteran Affairs; Energy and Environment; Government Reform.

While the markets favourites of budget and taxes are at the top of the White House list of choices, there are many other issues.

My guess is that by the end of the speech you will have a good idea of what his supporters told the President in the survey.

Footnote: Simply to see what might happen next I ticked everything. I had to register my name and email but unless I said I came from a state in the US or Canada and knew the zip code the computer would not register my vote. I fibbed and said ‘Washington’ and my vote went through. As soon as I voted I received a return email nominating the time of the address and how I could watch it.