The strengths and pitfalls of Donald Trump’s ambitious agenda

Trump is committed to draining the Washington swamp and his radical agenda could have huge implications for Australia.

In this Nov. 10, 2016, photo, President-elect Donald Trump, accompanied by his wife Melania, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, gestures while walking on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Molly Riley)

Australians with strong contacts in Washington told me over the weekend that their preliminary contacts with the new Trump administration have been impressive.

However, everyone is nervous that the transitional committee includes three of Trump’s sons and his son-in-law — making the United States of America akin to a family company!

On the other hand, the sons were close to Trump during the campaign and were important contributors.

There is no doubt the viciousness of the 2016 Presidential campaign (which included the sitting Democrat President saying that Trump was unfit to be commander-in-chief and Trump threatening to jail his opponent) has left divisions in the US not seen since the American Civil War.

Trump will need strong and constant security protection and this will be made even more necessary due to Trump’s plan to launch an unprecedented attack on the widespread corruption that has made Washington, in Trump’s own words, a “swamp” which he will “drain”.

Canberra is not that different. The anger among “corrupt” Washington people is white hot, as it would be if we drained Canberra but more of that later.

It is some years ago but I have been in the company of three of Trump’s close advisers — Rudolph Giuliani (who cleaned up New York), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Goldman Sachs executive Steven Mnuchin who is also a possible future Treasury Secretary.

The head of the transitional team, Vice President-elect Mike Pence, has been a constant critic of the Obama administration and knows just how bad Washington has become. Pence will be a vital cog in the Trump administration.

According to the Wall Street Journal Pence is a strong Christian conservative on social as well as fiscal issues. He came to Congress as a rebel willing to challenge the priorities of his own party’s leadership. He was part of the leading edge of Tea Party-style Republicans eager to shake up Washington.

As the new administration seeks to drain the Washington swamp, two-page memos, with the occasional 20-page memorandum on specific items about the function of certain agencies, are the order of the day.

Apart from the need to establish a new relationship with Russia and China (huge tasks) the new administration has an incredibly big agenda which includes:

• Putting in place a hiring freeze on new federal workers, with exceptions for positions in the military, public safety and public health.
• A re opening of the North American Free-trade Agreement (NAFTA) and abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as part of the campaign to “identify, and then remedy, all foreign trade abuses that unfairly impact American workers.” (Malcolm Turnbull needs to understand that the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a dead horse as far as the US is concerned. There are more important matters to raise with Trump). I would be surprised if the Australia-US trade agreement “unfairly impact American workers”.
• Lowering energy costs in the US so as to help attract back to the US the vast industrial complex now in China. Early priorities include lifting restrictions on tapping energy reserves via increased use of fracking and approving the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada. Infrastructure spending is a big piece of the Trump agenda.
• Cancelling billions of dollars in payments earmarked for United Nations’ climate-change programs.
• Starting in on the program of migrant deportation. Just how this will work is not known but it will likely include cancelling President Obama’s promise to protect from deportation undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children.
• Devising how the US can quickly build a wall on the southern US border to prevent illegal immigration from Mexico.
• Trump believes he can bring back to the US the hundreds of billions of dollars of US corporate money held in overseas accounts by lowering tax rates. I suspect this will not be a matter for the transitional committee. Trump will deal with this himself. Be ready for a series of deals.

Trump says that as President he will be chairman of the board. He will receive a series of well thought out plans from the transitional committee. If as chairman Trump then dumps them or his children make the transitional committee unworkable then we are in deep trouble.

The President-elect will be tested on corruption issues as he attempts to clean up special interest collusion in Washington. One move will be a five-year ban on lobbying for officials who leave the executive and legislative branches of government.

Trump believes he can eliminate two regulations for every new rule created during his time in office.

Newt Gingrich told the Wall Street Journal: “It will almost certainly include very dramatic civil-service reform to allow us to fire people who are incompetent or corrupt or breaking the law.”

For Australia, the most important aspect of this anti-corruption drive is the hope that the Trump administration will come to understand that part of the Washington information corruption is that the Congress has been misled over the state of US air defence. The US is about to lose air superiority (Russia and China set to challenge the new commander-in-chief, November 9).

Australian defence officials regurgitate the US half and quarter truths, which are part of the Washington culture that Trump wants to change.

Making it even tougher for Australia is the fact that, while the US is now about to rebuild its industrial base, the current Australian government is dedicated to running down our industrial base via its automotive industry policies and its submarine decision. The subs deal is aimed at design rather than manufacturer over the next five years but that’s another story.