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Peter Van Onselen

Gillard must be hoping that he stays out of the way -- and not offend too many nations

Peter Van Onselen
An illustration by Peter Nicholson.
An illustration by Peter Nicholson.

THE business community should be as worried as any sector about what role Kevin Rudd will play as Foreign Minister.

Australia's links internationally are all-important to our standard of living. China is crucial to our exports, our regional agreements are important to our competitive standing and security issues require deft management of the relationships we have with the US and China, not to mention an emerging India.

When Rudd was prime minister, his handling of business interests, here and overseas, was subprime at best and there is no reason to think he has learned any lessons since then.

A major component of good foreign affairs is enhancing Australia's economic links with other nations.

Rudd likes to think the foreign affairs portfolio is his opportunity to appear statesman-like on the world stage -- just as he tried to do on his first trip in flood-ravaged Pakistan and when meeting the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton -- or to press his claims for an overseas appointment.

While international diplomacy for the cameras is an inevitable part of any foreign minister's role, it really is just the window dressing. The more important task is forging overseas links which help Australian interests, and that usually involves paving the way for economic co-operation and trade links.

In a globalised world, international affairs is more than the preserve of theoreticians and ideologues who dream of a world government. It is an anarchical environment where countries push self-interest with the veneer of rules governing the game. It requires government representatives to massage those rules to national advantage, and to ensure Australia has not just a seat at the table when agreements are being drawn up, but the capacity to use such positioning.

Rudd just isn't up to that task. He isn't a people person, never has been. He doesn't understand economics, never really has.

He doesn't respect business, all the more so after his ill-fated mining tax contributed to his downfall.

That all adds up to Rudd being the wrong person in the wrong job at the wrong time for the nation.

When you consider the job Rudd did on foreign affairs when he was prime minister, it belies his strong interest and training in the field. On his first Asian trip he didn't even visit Japan, one of Australia's major trading partners.

He violated the confidence of former US President George W. Bush by passing on the contents of their private conversation about the G20 simply to big-note himself.

China, the new saviour of Australia's trading economy, was insulted by Rudd's handling of its stance at the Copenhagen Conference, purely because Rudd had domestic political interests in mind. And India, a major growth economy, has been denied access to Australian uranium under his watch, damaging the relationship.

The only thing right about Rudd's appointment as foreign minister is that it avoids his having a dummy spit and forcing a by-election in his Queensland electorate, which could bring down the minority Gillard government. (Perhaps an added benefit is that he will be overseas a lot -- plenty of his colleagues worry he will be a constant source of cabinet leaks) Can anyone for a moment imagine Rudd putting his best foot forward on behalf of Australian businesses when traversing the globe?

This is the man who thought the global financial crisis was a turning point in history which would lead to a new epoch, one that would end the Hayekian approach to economic liberalism businesses rely on. He won't be championing Australia in his new role -- he'll be championing his misguided interpretation of the world. But don't think Gillard isn't aware of all of the above.

Rudd's inability to champion Australia's economic interests effectively overseas is why it was a clever call by Gillard to separate the foreign affairs and trade portfolios, and it was even more clever to put Craig Emerson in the trade role. He will at least be able to make up for Rudd's failings, on a number of levels.

First, Emerson has a PhD in economics. He has taught the subject at university and was a senior economics adviser to Labor's greatest prime minister at securing trade competitiveness for this nation, Bob Hawke. Emerson has a theoretical and practical understanding of the trade portfolio.

Second, and just as importantly, Emerson is one of the few Labor frontbenchers who still has a fully functioning relationship with Rudd.

On the morning of the challenge he did back his then leader. That means that the two will be able to work together, which in practical terms means Rudd won't stymie Emerson's efforts to improve trade relationships.

And Gillard and Emerson get along too. She trusts his abilities and respects his non-factional independence of mind.

Gillard and her supporters will be hoping Rudd simply uses the foreign affairs portfolio to strut the world stage speaking on issues that interest him -- from the role of China to the importance of action on climate change.

He'll probably undermine Gillard's standing globally by carrying on like he is still the prime minister, but the hope is that he'll at least stay out of the way and not offend too many nations in the process.

If the Rudd sideshow frees Emerson to get on with the more important task of ensuring Australia and its trading partners are on good terms and refine their agreements to mutual economic advantage, Rudd can remain a media fasciation instead of morphing into a negative with tangible impacts.

Peter Van Onselen
Peter Van OnselenContributing Editor

Dr Peter van Onselen has been the Contributing Editor at The Australian since 2009. He is also a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and was appointed its foundation chair of journalism in 2011. Peter has been awarded a Bachelor of Arts with first class honours, a Master of Commerce, a Master of Policy Studies and a PhD in political science. Peter is the author or editor of six books, including four best sellers. His biography on John Howard was ranked by the Wall Street Journal as the best biography of 2007. Peter has won Walkley and Logie awards for his broadcast journalism and a News Award for his feature and opinion writing.

Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/gillard-must-be-hoping-that-he-stays-out-of-the-way--and-not-offend-too-many-nations/news-story/bc98b35633c6666c69bad119cab58c62