Strong solar take-up sees electricty demand plummet: AEMO report
Electricity demand hit record lows in Victoria and South Australia in the third quarter of 2020 amid strong take-up of solar.
Electricity demand hit record lows in Victoria and South Australia in the third quarter of 2020 amid strong take-up of solar, while power prices in the national grid were at their cheapest levels for the September period in six years.
The Australian Energy Market Operator has been focused on the trend that solar at times generates so much surplus energy that demand falls near zero, potentially destabilising the power system.
Victoria set a new minimum demand record of 3073 megawatts on September 6, 104MW lower than the previous mark set three years earlier, with solar providing nearly a third of output for the state.
Minimum demand in Victoria is projected to fall from 3000MW in 2019-20 to periods of negative demand by 2027-28 due to a surge in rooftop solar, partly triggered by the state’s solar panel subsidy scheme.
South Australia also broke new ground with solar providing 100 per cent of its energy needs for an hour on October 11 as households’ rooftop solar supplied over three-quarters of the state’s power.
It also set a new minimum demand mark during the three-month reporting period of 379MW on September 13 when solar provided 71 per cent of its energy needs.
The trend has continued in October, with South Australia now holding a minimum demand record of 300MW and Victoria at 3063MW.
Electricity demand across the national market slipped 1.4 per cent for the third quarter on a year ago with Victoria falling the most due to extended lockdowns. Commercial demand in the state fell by 15 per cent during the three-month period, offsetting a 10-15 per cent lift in residential demand with Victorians remaining home. Industrial demand was relatively flat, AEMO said.
Wholesale electricity prices across the national power grid dropped to their lowest third-quarter level since 2014, falling between 45-48 per cent on the same period in 2019.
“In addition to lower demand, the reduction was driven by improved reliability of coal-fired generators in NSW and Victoria, coupled with a shift in offers from black coal-fired generators to lower prices, and new wind and solar capacity,” AEMO said.
Wholesale gas prices fell by almost half from the third quarter of last year, reaching the lowest September quarter level since 2015. Negative prices were seen in just under 5 per cent of trading, beating the previous 3.6 per cent record in the prior quarter.
