Global use of coal rises as nuclear power poised to hit record highs
The Coalition will welcome new data from the International Energy Agency that predicts global coal use to rise and nuclear power to spike in 2025.
The global use of coal is expected to rise this year, while nuclear power is expected to hit record levels in 2025, the International Energy Agency reports – a forecast that will likely be seized on by the Coalition as evidence of worldwide support for its policy to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The IEA said global coal use for producing electricity is expected to increase by just shy of 1 per cent, following growth of 1.9 per cent in the previous year. The IEA said it had expected coal power generation to contract this year but while there had been declines in Europe – growth in Asia would see global usage increase.
While much of the increases in Asia were driven by strong electricity demand growth in China and India, the IEA also noted US coal-fired generation is also expected to remain robust in 2024 amid rising electricity demand and reduced coal-to-gas switching.
The findings underscore the global challenge of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, a pledge supported by nearly all countries, which the Opposition has said underscores its plan for using nuclear power.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton has insisted its policy of building seven nuclear power stations at the sites of retiring coal power stations is indicative of a global trend, though the Albanese government insists those countries are doing so because they do not have the abundant renewable resources enjoyed by Australia.
While Labor has secured support of the Australian renewable energy industry, the Coalition is likely to seize on the IEA’s forecast for global nuclear use as evidence that Australia will be swimming against the tide.
The IEA said global nuclear generation is on track to reach a new high in 2025, surpassing its previous record in 2021. Nuclear generation is forecast to rise globally by 1.6 per cent in 2024, and by 3.5 per cent in 2025. This growth is supported by a steady increase in output by the French nuclear power fleet as maintenance works are completed, by the restarting of reactors in Japan, and by new reactors coming online in various markets, including China, India, Korea and Europe.
Both Europe and Asia are increasingly turning to nuclear power as they attempt to wean themselves of fossil fuels amid a global energy crunch. Europe had been reliant on gas for much of its electricity generation but has in recent years sought to wean itself off Russian supplies amid sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine.
Japan, a major user of coal, has been forced to restart its nuclear fleet in a bid to meet its net zero commitment.
Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets and security at the IEA said electricity demand is growing globally and while the transition to zero emissions sources is capturing an ever larger share – it remained insufficient.
“It’s encouraging to see clean energy’s share of the electricity mix continuing to rise, but this needs to happen at a much faster rate to meet international energy and climate goals,” Mr Sadamori said.
Labor’s policy of having renewable energy generate 82 per cent of the country’s electricity shapes as the most likely to please the IEA’s transition aim, but Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien earlier this week said the policy would damage the prosperity of the country.
The Coalition has hinted it could prolong the use of coal in Australia until its fleet of nuclear power stations is ready. The first of the Coalition’s seven proposed stations is expected to be ready in 2037, a timetable scoffed at by energy officials who highlight the need for a change in the law and the endorsement of local communities.
While Labor’s renewables policy has won support of the country’s renewable energy industry – there are growing signs that the country’s electorate is open to nuclear as households desperately seek some relief amid a cost of living crisis.
Australian households and businesses pay some of the world’s highest electricity bills and delays in establishing new sources of energy threaten to increase pressure.
The IEA said Australia’s wholesale electricity price – the cost of generating the power – held steady during the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period one year earlier.
The IEA said steady prices of coal and increased renewable energy generation were the catalyst for the flatline wholesale price, which will be a relief to the government, which must return to the polls by May 2025.
While recent high electricity bills have hit the standing of the Labor government, the IEA’s data illustrates one small benefit – an increase in rooftop solar as households and businesses look for some relief.
Australia has some of the world’s highest proliferation rates for rooftop solar, aiding the government’s aspirations to develop zero emission energy sources.
But the IEA noted the toll on retailers of Australia’s soaring rates of rooftop solar.
The IEA said in South Australia – where rooftop solar is at its highest levels in Australia – the proliferation is causing economic harm to retailers.
“The capture rate for rooftop solar has actually dropped below zero for some quarters. This means that for over a period of several months, rooftop solar PV cost retailers more money on the spot market for generation during negative-priced periods than they earned from the remaining generation,” the IEA said.
