Gas surplus for the eastern states could narrow in late 2025, according to ACCC report

Australia’s eastern seaboard may experience a narrowing of the gas surplus for the third quarter of 2025, an ACCC report is expected to say.

The ACCC relies on its own estimates and data gathered from gas producers.

Australia’s eastern seaboard may experience a narrowing of the gas surplus for the third quarter of 2025, underlining the ongoing tight supply situation as major companies and policymakers ramp up a push for LNG imports to ease shortfall concerns.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission is poised to deliver its next quarterly report on the gas sector and industry sources said a draft had shown a previous surplus forecast for the three months to September was likely to be tighter.

The ACCC’s report issued in January showed a 13 petajoule supply surplus for the third quarter of 2025. Sources said new data crunched by the competition regulator may show that surplus had dwindled to less than 5 PJs.

The ACCC and a spokesman for Treasurer Jim Chalmers both declined to comment on Thursday. If the draft number is confirmed in the final report it will point to a potential discrepancy with a rosier outlook handed down by the Australian Energy Market Operator on Thursday.

Queensland LNG producers, subject to the federal government’s gas export trigger, may also face extra scrutiny over delivering adequate gas into the domestic market.

AEMO said gas producers had responded to urgent calls by increasing supplies and as a result a structural deficit set for 2028 had been delayed by a year.

The ACCC relies on its own bespoke estimates and data gathered from gas producers, but there is often a significant time lag before the competition regulator’s insights from industry are delivered to the market.

Despite the uptick in the gas outlook from AEMO, major players including AGL Energy said it was vital a range of options including LNG imports were considered to help fix the domestic market.

“While it is positive that the AEMO notes a decrease in gas consumption, it also highlights the ongoing need to address supply shortfalls,” AGL chief operating office Markus Brokhof said.

“At AGL, we have been quite clear that key to putting downward pressure on gas prices and improving affordability for customers is to bring on new sources of supply, including LNG imports, as well as supporting customers to reduce gas consumption through electrification.

“Bass Strait gas has served Australia well for over half a century, but production is declining. The development of LNG import projects will future-proof gas supply and be an essential part of the mix by supporting the energy transition with a flexible, timely gas supply to firm renewables.”

Pipeline giant APA said the AEMO report highlighted that its East Coast Gas Grid Expansion Plan could head-off potential gas shortfalls until 2034, avoiding the need for LNG import plants.

The report “confirms new gas fields are needed under all scenar­ios to avoid southern state shortfalls,” APA chief executive Adam Watson said. “APA has been saying for some time that investment in new domestic gas supply, including in the Surat and Beetaloo basins, is the key to delivering secure and affordable energy for Australian industry and households.”

Labor has used the threat of curtailing LNG exports from Queensland to push producers such as Origin to increase domestic supplies, and a further 40PJ of gas was confirmed from APLNG on Thursday.

APLNG, in which Origin is 27.5 per cent owner, will pledge to supply 10PJ of gas annually for the next four years.