Coal, hard cash rolls in as thermal prices surge higher
Australian thermal coal miners are likely throwing off rivers of cash as prices surge in China and Europe, analysts say.
Australian thermal coal miners are likely throwing off rivers of cash as prices surge in China and Europe, underlining the challenges faced by policy makers in responding to the latest dire predictions of the accelerated pace of climate change.
Ord Minnett analysts noted on Tuesday that Australian thermal coal mines were throwing off “incredible” amounts of free cash flow with prices at long term highs, amid strong summer buying in China and Europe.
Thermal coal prices have been on a run since May, with demand linked to a warm summer in North Asia, according to Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar, and on safety-related mine closures in China.
“Coal shortages in China, especially in the southern province of Guangdong, have proven the most acute since 2011. China’s coal shortage has been exacerbated by China’s unofficial ban on Australian coal imports and as local coal mines look to prioritise safety due to accidents earlier this year,” Mr Dhar said in a client note this week.
“Chinese thermal coal prices were tracking at RMB942 a tonne ($198) on August 2 (5,500 kcal/kg, Net-As-Received (NAR), well above China’s target range of RMB 500-570/t.”
Chinese demand for thermal coal over its summer months has also been boosted by a severe drought earlier this year in the south of the country, which knocked some hydro-electric generators out of the system, increasing its reliance on coal-fired power plants.-
CBA analysts put the price of high-grade Australian energy coal at $US167.05 a tonne on Monday, up from $US160.95 at the close of last week, with the market for the commodity running hot despite dire predictions of accelerated global warming from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change this week.
Thermal coal prices in Europe have also soared over the last month as electricity demand returns after the pandemic, and thermal coal prices in South Africa are also around decade long highs.
With export capacity from Australia’s biggest coal port at Newcastle returning to normal levels in August, as a shiploader damaged in storms last year returns to action, Australian producers are poised for a strong second half of the year.
Ord Minnett mining analyst Dylan Kelly said in a client note on Tuesday that thermal coal prices could push higher this month amid seasonal restocking in key markets, saying major Australian producers were generating strong cash from the price boom.
The local market is yet to price in surging commodity prices to local stocks, but Mr Kelly said that could not last forever.
“At spot prices Whitehaven is generating an incredible ~80 per cent free cash flow yield. We believe the disconnect between share price and commodity price is unlikely to remain,” he said.
But current high prices won’t last forever, analysts say, with ratings agency Fitch Solutions tipping the price to peak by the end of the year “due to a normalisation of currently strong Chinese demand, the Chinese government continuing to release coal from strategic stockpiles and high prices encouraging mine restarts”.
Mr Dhar told CBA clients that he also believed prices would moderate when the northern summer ends.
“We think China’s coal imports are likely to ease after the summer period ends, local coal mines are reopened and reserves are added to avoid power shortages,” he said.
Whitehaven shares closed up 13c to $2.30 on Tuesday, with New Hope Corporation up 8c to $2.05. But follow coal miners Yancoal and Stanmore both fell, with Yancoal down 4c to $2.13 and Stanmore off 5.5c to 74.5c.
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