Climate blueprint: Production of gas and coal to drop 35pc by 2050
Australia’s gas and coal production will be 35 per cent lower in 2050 as global demand for the commodities decline in a decarbonising world.
Australia’s gas and coal production will be 35 per cent lower in 2050 as global demand for the commodities decline in a decarbonising world, with exports of lithium, nickel and copper to reach as much as $84bn a year.
The Morrison government’s long-term emissions reduction plan predicts demand for fossil fuels will decline as international trading partners “shift towards low emissions technologies, fuels and commodities”, while hydrogen production could be worth $50bn a year.
“As a result of these global trends, Australian fossil fuels production is projected to fall over the period to 2050, and will be 35 per cent lower than 2020,” the report says.
“International demand for coal is projected to taper more rapidly than for natural gas. Our modelling finds changing customer demand for these commodities, not a domestic emissions goal, drives economic impacts on these sectors.”
However, analysis from the Department of Industry Science Energy and Resources predicts lithium exports could grow from $1bn in 2020 to $10bn in 2050. Lithium exports could “reach as high as $34bn per year” if the nation “further refined all the lithium we mined”.
The government believes battery demand could see nickel exports rise from $4bn in 2020 to more than $30bn in 2050, while copper exports will rise from $7bn to $19bn.
“Australia’s total exports of these three resources could grow from $12bn in 2020 to as much as $84bn in 2050,” the plan says. “Other studies have highlighted the opportunities for Australia in expanding further up the battery mineral value chains. For example, 34,700 jobs could be supported by 2030 if Australia builds its capabilities in downstream refining, manufacturing and battery integration and services.”
The plan says hydrogen production could support up to 16,000 jobs in 2050 in traditional mining regions.
Coalmining employs 50,000 Australians, with exports expected to be above $50bn in the 2021-22 financial year. LNG exports are also expected to be worth more than $50bn this financial year.