Coal thirsty China sets off alarms
China’s plan to construct dozens of new coal-fired plants could derail a global decline in their development.
Plans by China to resume the construction of dozens of coal-fired power plants could partly derail a broader global decline in the number of coal facilities under development, according to a new study backed by US billionaire Michael Bloomberg.
Satellite photos taken by environment group CoalSwarm last September showed Chinese operators have restarted construction on dozens of suspended projects, which was noted as a “glaring exception” to the global decline in coal plant development.
The report was authored by the Sierra Club, which is supported by Mr Bloomberg, Global Energy Monitor and Greenpeace.
About half of the 170 gigawatts of coal plants suspended by China’s central government in 2017 are now back under development, resulting in a 12 per cent lift in global coal power capacity to 236GW in 2018.
This compares with Australia’s total electricity capacity from all sources of 50GW.
China may add a further 290GW — more than the entire capacity of the US fleet — under a proposal tabled this month by the China Electricity Council, which wants a 2030 coal power cap of 1300GW from 1010GW now.
“While this would not necessarily breach China’s pledges under the Paris Agreement, another coal power construction spree would be near impossible to reconcile with the emission reductions needed to avoid the worst impacts of global warming,” Greenpeace Global Air Pollution Unit lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta said.
“China’s energy targets have a greater bearing on global emissions than any other national policy decision. It is unclear how the central government will respond, given its recent efforts to slow the rate of coal plant commissioning and the issuing of new permits.”
Still, momentum remains uncertain with China permitting less than 5GW of coal power for construction in 2018 compared with 184 gigawatts in 2015. China is responsible for 48 per cent of global coal-fired power production.
The new capacity was the result of a permitting surge from late 2014 to early 2016 after regulations were handed from central to provincial authorities.
In 2016 and 2017, central authorities sought to rein in the surge through a series of suspension orders. However, many restrictions only delayed new projects rather than stopping them.
With China financing half of all global coal power capacity, its next move will dictate the trajectory and investor support for the fossil fuel.
“If the central government were to have its SOEs join the over 100 financial organisations transitioning away from coal, the pipeline for new coal plants would potentially be cut in half,” the report said.
Globally, there was a 20 per cent drop in newly completed coal plants in 2018, a 39 per cent drop in new construction starts and a quarter fewer plants are in pre-construction activity in the 12-month period.
The US accounted for more than half of global retirements, the second highest level on record, despite President Trump working to prevent ageing plants from closing.
“The US is on track to completely phase out coal and transition to a 100 per cent clean energy economy by 2030, and we are at a critical stage where grassroots movements are fighting to move beyond coal,” the Sierra Club’s Neha Mathew-Shah said.