Libs’ silver linings playbook for a NSW electoral romance; Polling’s BrandCentral a bit of mystery

NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman could do with a lift in profile. Picture: Julian Andrews

It’s coming up to one year since Labor stampeded to victory in the NSW elections but already the Liberal Party, still smarting over the loss, is busy trying to finger the angles and the plays to snatch back the state – even if there won’t be a poll for another three years.

We know this because a hefty Liberal Party strategy document marked “confidential” and seen by only a handful of people – and absurdly titled “Project Sword” – fell off the back of a truck and into Margin Call’s hot little hands on Friday.

Its insights, drawn from surveys with 1000 people between February 19 and 26 are a grab-bag of tired old tactics and strivings for the lowest-hanging political fruit. Among those just waiting to be lured back are the “downbeat and pessimistic” on lower incomes who voted Labor last year – those yearning to breathe while renting in Sydney or working part-time.

“The context disadvantages incumbents right now, but the Liberals can use this to remain competitive, to frame Labor as ineffectual and Liberal equities as useful,” says the document, prepared by a little-known outfit called BrandCentral, and we’ll have more to say about them in a bit.

So that’s one slinky cat very much out of the bag. There’s the usual track-polling of leaders and their popularity. Not surprisingly, Opposition Leader Mark Speakman’s biggest vulnerability is that he’s dangerously short on profile, although even worse is that he ranks fathoms beneath Premier Chris Minns on performance, with Minns ahead 45 to 17.

Exerpts from Liberal strategy documents

“It is clear that Speakman’s profile requires strengthening. Minns also leads him on preferred premier by a factor of more than two to one.”

If there’s a glimmer of optimism it’s that the research found Speakman, the MP for Cronulla, is liked by younger, lower-income renters and those living further south of his electorate in the Illawarra, for some reason. “This is something to build upon,” the pollsters say.

On the raw numbers (margin-of-error 3.1 per cent), the ­Coalition is clinging to a one-point lead over Labor, edging them out 36-35 on the primary vote. That’s way down on the five-point lead the Coalition enjoyed over the summer holidays but three points up on last year’s election – the only vote that counts!

As usual, optional preference flows are likely to decide the victor, and once those numbers are fed into the computer, the Coalition somehow ends up ahead on the two-party preferred measure, scoring 51-49. That’s optimistic! Even if it’s true, that’s a mere 1.5-point swing, not enough to take a single seat off the government.

And yes, as usual, the Liberal fan base hasn’t changed: they’re old, asset-owning and wealthy. Under a section titled, Who We Need to Target, the party is advised to work harder on the ageing population in the marginal seats, including the Labor seesaws on the Central Coast and the Illawarra.

Liberal Party deputy Natalie Ward is recognised by some. Picture: Simon Bullard

Gains in the city are aspirational, at this stage. “We find that inner and suburban Sydney, males, those working and on higher incomes are sometimes voting Labor while considering the Liberals superior money managers. This is an opportunity.”

The ace in the hole, however, might just be campaigning on the pervasive negativity that everyone seems to be reporting at the moment. Ironic, too, considering that’s an old Labor dirty trick.

“People are somewhat apprehensive about their own situation, but are downright negative about the way the country seems to be going,” the document says. “They are also concerned about the state’s direction. This has the potential to be one of the most powerful leverage points for the Liberals. Lower income voters who want to get on the property ladder are notable targets, but there are many.”

And yet what to do about Speakman? On the net positivity score he isn’t faring too badly, but there’s room for a tune up, according to the strategists. “It is unfortunate, but not unexpected, that the Liberal brand and Speakman are rated less favourably than Labor or Minns.”

In terms of recognition, NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey’s score is as low as you can go. Picture: Christian Gilles

But Speakman’s low name recognition also presents an opportunity for a revamp. “He (Speakman) can be introduced anew,” they say.

Still, on the net positivity scores, Minns comes in at 16, streets ahead of everyone. That’s followed by his deputy, Prue Car with a score of seven, still in positive territory. From there the numbers veer “neutral”, with Speakman on four, Nationals leader Dugald Saunders on three, Liberal deputy Natalie Ward on two and Treasurer Daniel Mookhey on zero, which sounds bad but actually just means he’s less familiar to the public.

Even less familiar is Liberal stalwart Damien Tudehope with a score of minus one, Transport Minister Jo Haylen with the same score, and then Labor MP Paul Scully on minus two.

Only the Liberal Party brand itself fairs worse, with a weighted score in the negative territory of minus eight, followed by the Greens on minus 12. Labor’s looking pretty good then, with a big fat zero.

Mystery unsolved

But just hang on a minute. Since when does the NSW Liberal Party use “BrandCentral” to conduct its polling? Is it even a polling firm? Not by our measure. It looks like a one-man band run by founder Julian Martin. And no shade on Martin, but we worry about anyone who lists an “Australian Institute of Directors” (sic) course as a qualification on their website.

Anyway, he’s seemingly picked up the Liberal polling for now, or at least since CT Group told the Libs they were no longer seeking election work, ending several decades of partnership. What we hear is that Martin’s work, by comparison, is both cheap and cheerful.

Curious thing, though, this polling. For a start, the graphs and charts look awfully, startlingly similar to those used by Jim Reed, founder of Resolve Strategic, and himself a former group director of research and strategy at CT Group.

A coincidence, perchance, except we found more similarities to CT-era documents, in the formatting and titles. And then, weirdest of all, was the sighting of Reed at NSW Liberal headquarters in Sydney on Thursday, alongside his old-buddy-old-pal Yaron Finkelstein, another former CT veteran.

They were there, we’re told, for a 90-minute meeting.

To talk about polling? Who’s to say.

So what’s going on here? A spot of expert analysis to decipher the numbers, or are they somehow involved in this BrandCentral caper?

Finkelstein denied any link to the polling. Reed wasn’t reachable. NSW Liberal Party director Richard Shields told Margin Call: “Pollsters come to see me all the time.”

Biotech brilliance

Traditionally, there’s not much fun running a biotech. Picture the drudgery of scraping money together for trials and data, of sterile rooms, of lab coats and test tubes. Hollywood parties? Celebrities? Champagne? Ha! Not on your life, son.

Well, maybe only at Clinuvel, run by the intriguing chief executive Dr Philippe Wolgen.

This guy gave up a promising career in soccer to train as a facial surgeon, then made the leap into financial markets. Now he’s in with the smart-set over in LA, having recently been spotted dining with Lady Gaga and her financier husband Michael Polansky.

Turns out the singer-songwriter has an interest in next-gen pharma-tech, having launched her own consumer start-up, Haus Labs, five years ago. It would seem that she stumbled into Clinuvel’s story via longtime shareholder Sean Parker, the founder of Napster and the guy played by Justin Timberlake in The Social Network.

Singer, actor and businesswoman Stefani Germanotta, better known as Lady Gaga. Picture: AFP

Remember him? He’s the guy who famously implored Zuck to drop the “The” from his little website, The Facebook.

And so Gaga has Wolgen over for dinner and a fireside chat at her Malibu pad in the run-up to Clinuvel launching its latest drug, Scenesse, a treatment for Vitiligo, an auto-immune condition that causes loss of skin colour. Winnie Harlow, the Canadian supermodel, is famous for having it, among other accomplishments.

Anyway, looks like a star could be born with Scenesse, the chat in Malibu covering the business plan, the development story, yadda, yadda. There for the spiel was Alexandra Lenas-Parker (married to Parker), British actor Sir Patrick Stuart and his wife Sunny Ozell, actor Sean Penn, a smattering of Hollywood filmmakers, producers and US Congressman Robert Garcia.

Far from the shallows now, eh?