UK election 2019: The three little words that delivered Boris Johnson the election - ‘Get Brexit Done’
Friday the 13th it might have been, but a collective sigh of relief from the financial community could be heard across top floors around the world.
A ho, ho Bo Jo Christmas, with sterling jumping more than 2 per cent against the US dollar when exit polls signalled a thumper election result, and US President Donald Trump’s sign-off on a trade tariff agreement with China were heralding a Santa rally.
In Britain, four factors stand out: first, this was to all intents and purposes the second referendum on Brexit, a doubling down from those who voted to leave in the first referendum on 23 June 2016, almost three and a half years ago; and then topped up by a new wave of voters, across party lines surely, who now just want to “get Brexit done”.
As the months rolled by in the Brexit drama, it became clear that the fearmongering by vocal remainers, many throughout the establishment, was not gaining traction with voters. Perhaps the most vocal, SDP leader Jo Swinson, lost her seat.
One of the sweetest victories for hard-line Brexiteers was to see voters in Tony Blair’s former seat, Sedgefield, back a Conservative MP for the first time in decades, given the extraordinary behind the scenes work the ex-PM and his former business secretary and then European Minister for Trade Peter Mandelson have been doing to thwart Brexit in Brussels.
Vindication too for those appalled by Mark Carney, the (Canadian) governor of the Bank of England’s many Chicken Licken warnings of a Brexit future. Sterling’s rise reflects both an end to uncertainty, and optimism that a strong mandate for Brexit will translate into new trade deals with Europe and then Australia, New Zealand and US as priorities. The Australian dollar hit a four-month high against the US dollar on news of the exit poll.
The second factor was the clarity and simplicity of “Get Brexit Done”, which ripped through traditional labour electorates, helped by the Brexit Party’s Nigel Farage’s passionate roadshow across the north.
Third, the last-minute assistance from the media, particularly the right-wing tabloids, that the result was on a knife edge - more uncertainty for a Britain that would remain mired in a civil war on Brexit.
Finally, nobody should discount the Boris factor. Ever since the British rebranding of “Cool Britannia” under Blair, the country’s mojo has been seeping away.
The sovereignty issue in the Brexit debate, hard to elucidate beyond British shores, was important.
Boris Johnson’s ability to claw back ground lost by Theresa May in negotiations with Europe, regained face for Britain.
The PM’s mix of bulldog, brilliance and bumble is quintessentially British.
This is why, in this extraordinary Christmas election, a time when everyone in dark, soggy Britain takes solace in just one more viewing of Bridget Jones, reindeer jumpers and Love Actually, the advert of Boris Johnson shuffling big white cards to the sound of carol singers was, as one very old friend of the PM told me on Friday, just brilliant. The irony of Love Actually’s bumbling PM, actor Hugh Grant being one of Boris Johnson’s harshest critics (also on the airwaves) will not be lost on the real Prime Minister.
No one suggests the next year will be easy.
Nicola Sturgeon will argue she has a mandate for another referendum for Scotland. The Good Friday Agreement must remain sound. Boris Johnson has made big spending promises on the NHS and is committed to net zero emissions by 2050. Hard line Brexiteers under Jacob Rees Mogg need to be managed.
Brexit founder Nigel Farage and former speaker (and remain leaning) John Bercow both agreed on Friday that negotiations with Europe would be extended to 2022. Boris Johnson’s manifesto charts a withdrawal from the EU by 31 January and finalising a trade deal with Europe within eleven months of that.
Just ahead of the election, predicted then as being on a knife edge, chief Brexit negotiator for Europe Michel Barnier was warning that Boris Johnson’s timetable was unrealistic. On va voir. Yes, implementation will be hard, but it will be a whole lot easier than predicted ahead of the election.
This remarkable result delivers a Brexit mandate for Boris Johnson that steps up his authority in negotiating the transition with Europe. One is reminded of the three little words that delivered Boris Johnson the election “Get Brexit Done”.
This, and not the rise to PM (although this time heroically endorsed by the public), is the petard on which he will be judged. Now he has to do it.
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