Labor’s business blueprint will make Peter Dutton PM

Labor’s business blueprint could jeopardise the party’s hold on power. Picture: AFP

If the government’s 784-page “close the loopholes” blueprint for conducting business in Australia passes the Senate, Peter Dutton is highly likely to become the next prime minister.

Just like in the early days of the voice referendum proposal few, including most government politicians, have studied the detail and understand that the blueprint represents an unprecedented attack on the sort of people who dominate the less affluent electorates that voted No.

In the vicinity of 75 per cent of the ALP’s 77 seats in the House of Representatives voted No and a large number will simply not stand for their elected representatives again supporting actions favouring the views of the affluent rather than ordinary Australians.

The 784-page business blueprint is really a multitude of different actions, so people keep discovering new horrors as they study the pages, particularly the nasties hidden in the 500-page explanatory memorandum.

The latest horror to be revealed is that Australia’s 2.7 million casual workers are destined for a cash pay cut if the legislation passes.

I will explain the detail below.

Industrial Relations Minister Tony Burke and Anthony Albanese. Picture: Toby Zerna

Many of those using casual work, particularly in the No vote areas, have been able to keep up their mortgage payments because of the high cash rewards available in casual work.

The seven independents in the Senate have a unique decision to make. If two of them allow the “closing the loopholes” business blueprint to pass the Senate, then they will very likely have made Dutton prime minister.

In addition, the fury created in the nation when millions discover they are the “loopholes” will almost certainly cost some independents their Senate places. If all seven reject the bill then Anthony Albanese has a much better chance of having a second term as Prime Minister.

Casuals are not the only victims and my regular readers will be aware of some of the other targets.

The business blueprint confuses employment arrangements and commercial contracts. This means that enterprises like those providing regular gardening, electrical, plumbing, IT and many other services must prepare for years of legal chaos. And if they find that, unintentionally, they have broken these incredibly complex laws they may suffer enormous penalties.

Currently, as I explained under the heading “Lack of certainty as to whether firms are obeying or breaking the law,” we have clear laws as to whether a person is a contractor or an employee, thus enabling small enterprises to do their jobs without a legal morass.

Accordingly, the blueprint represents an unprecedented attack on the Australian small and medium-sized businesses that dominate economies in the “No” electorates.

But the legislation gets even more nasty as it attacks around 50,000 long-haul truck drivers who have borrowed to buy their truck — usually securing the loan against the family home.

Back in the Gillard government days the government set up one of the most feared anti-small business bodies ever conceived in Australia: the infamous so called Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal, which set about putting independent truckies out of business.

Thanks to the courageous effort of the Senate independents in 2016 the truck owners were saved, but not before five took their own lives after being threatened with the tribunal brutality.

Now, once again, truck drivers are in danger of becoming a “loophole” that needs to be closed, so the Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal will restored to do the job. Will the independents again save truckies from turmoil?

Around 60 per cent of residents in Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ Queensland electorate of Rankin voted No. As well as many casual workers, contractors and truckies, the electorate also has many pensioners who were delighted when their local member, as Treasurer, announced they would be able to earn more money without impacting their pension. They planned to accept his advice to use the vast number of gig platforms available to easily obtain suitable work. If the business blueprint passes they will discover that the gig platforms are yet another “loophole” and must be destroyed. They will find it hard to get the extra revenue. While the attack on contractors, truckies, and pensioners is vicious, the attack on casual workers goes beyond belief

I can’t recall a government ever having the audacity to base a looming election campaign on reducing the cash income of 2.7 million battling Australians (mostly No voters) partly because of the government politicians’ desire to please its affluent friends, particularly union officials who live in prosperous Yes voting seats.

Step one is to virtually abolish casual work by making the definition so complex that no one can risk employing a casual because the fines for paying people extra via the casual employment classification can be up to $93,000. Accordingly the casual labour “loophole” is closed.

Most existing casuals will need to transfer to full-time employment, or, more likely, part-time employee status. That means 2.7 million will receive a lower income.

Casuals earn more money than full/part-time employees because they receive an extra “loading” of 25 per cent. The full/part-time employees of course receive holidays, long service leaved etc but those rewards are delayed and don’t come via much-needed cash.

But even if those full/part time extras are valued and superannuation included, casuals are still better off.

Bank economists expected mortgage stress to create many more forced home sales but they underestimated the power of the extra money casuals receive, which has substantially lessened the impact of higher interest rates.

According to the statistics almost all new jobs in the last six months were part time, almost certainly dominated by casuals, because of the desperate need to pay rent and mortgages.

There will be an riot when 2.7 million casuals discover they are a “loophole” and must have their cash pay cut.