Killing off the Commodore sounds the death knell for Holden

Now that the Commodore has been given a death sentence a noose hangs over the future of Holden.

There was never a chance that the Opel Insignia could replicate the showroom clout of the locally made sedan. Picture: Joshua Dowling.

Now that the Commodore has been given a death sentence a noose hangs over the future of Holden.

As one source put it this week, Commodore was “the heartbeat of the Holden franchise” – central to its identity and success. During its heyday, it enjoyed a 15-year run as our favourite car, sustaining a factory, design and engineering operation, and huge dealer network.

But Holden entered the SUV era in denial. It was the last to admit the large sedan segment was in terminal decline and the last of our three local makers to shut the factory gates.

Worst of all, its plan for transition to import-only looked thin and unconvincing.

Central to it was continuation of the Commodore badge on an imported Opel Insignia. Every brand loyalist knows, though, that Insignia is a very different car and there was never a chance it could replicate the showroom clout of the locally made sedan.

The other part of the plan involves cherry-picking the best that General Motors global operation has to offer. The drawbridge would be lowered, we were told, and Australians would benefit from the immense breadth of GM’s expertise.

Holden’s sunny optimism about this was quickly undermined by GM’s sale of Opel, its German division. At a stroke it narrowed Holden’s options and cast doubts over the long-term supply of both the new Commodore and revived Astra hatchback. With this week’s announcement, Astra is also on death row.

The Holden Astra is also on death row.

Needless to say, both are selling poorly and unfavourable foreign exchange rates will not be helping Holden’s bottom line. However, even low-volume vehicles can turn a dollar here and why axe your two most familiar nameplates if you plan to stay?

No, this is step one in a staged retreat.

The promised bounty of GM imports has failed to materialise and – Colorado ute aside - Holden is now left trying to flog a handful of imported SUVs with unrecognised names and zero cut-through in terms of what they offer. Trax, Equinox, Trailblazer, Acadia? None can attract more than a tiny share of buyers in its category.

The contrast with Ford is stark. Its Mustang picked up where Falcon left off. The Blue Oval is unquestionably blue collar, but at least we have some idea of what it is.

The Holden “equivalent” is the Camaro, but it costs a fortune after local conversion to right-hand drive. The Corvette, when it finally arrives in 2021, will be badged Chevrolet.

Brand Holden has failed to reinvent itself for the new era and shown it has no idea how to do it. You can’t be meatpie Australian if every car arrives on a boat.

Holden Commodore through the years

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So without Commodore, Holden becomes a null brand. Subtract the Astra as well, and it will quickly drop out of the top 10 – it’s about to do that already - and disappear off buyers’ radar.

Over the past few years, GM has been retreating from difficult markets to focus on the two that between them buy most of the vehicles on the planet: China and the US. The only reason it retains Holden is because it hasn’t found a buyer.

To keep Holden supplied with fresh product, it must engineer vehicles for right-hand drive almost solely for Australia, where they will sell in tiny numbers. Where’s the logic in that?

When asked for further comment this week, Holden said new boss Kristian Aquilina would be saying nothing until there was good news to announce.

There won’t be any. From here, there’s nothing but exit signs.