In US politics, following the money is a guide to ultimate outcomes

In US politics, the old slogan “follow the money” is a guide to ultimate outcomes. Until now, that slogan was heading the US and the western world to a doomsday-style presidential battle between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Biden’s health is clearly ailing, and Trump is running a campaign using the American justice system.

The fact that the US political apparatus has produced such poor front running candidates threatens the US democratic system.

The horror of this outcome last week caused a dramatic change in the direction of Republican money and that change might, in time, even influence Democratic Party money.

I am not in the business of predicting political outcomes, particularly in the US. But following money is a different story.

Charles G Koch, 88, is estimated to have a net worth of $100bn, making him the 14th richest person in the world. The Koch family money has its origins in oil but has extended into a vast privately owned industrial empire.

Along with his late brother David, Charles Koch has been active in promoting Republican political causes for decades but has never backed a presidential candidate for 23 years.

In 2000 the Koch brothers backed George W Bush in his successful campaign against Al Gore. But they became disillusioned with many of the Bush policies and were not supporters in 2004 when Bush gained a second term.

In 2016, groups associated with the Koch brothers announced plans to raise more than $A1bn leading up to the 2016 elections.

After Trump won the Republican nomination, they changed policy and decided to not donate to Trump’s campaign, instead focusing smaller but still substantial funds in selected states.

Billionaire David Koch. Picture: Nicholas Kamm/AFP

This included spending large sums on “get out to vote” drives for selected Republicans. As it happened, those campaigns helped Trump win key swing states and those who were elected got caught up in Trumpism, much to the frustration of the Koch brothers.

During the last two decades, the Koch brothers have combined their donation money with other wealthy Republican-supporting families to establish bodies and think tanks to support traditional Republican causes like free trade.

In June 2018, the Koch's backed a multimillion-dollar campaign organised by three pro-free trade political groups to oppose the Trump tariffs.

Earlier this year, Charles Koch indicated that his family and associated supporters were considering supporting a rival candidate to Trump in the Republican presidential nomination primaries.

They were expected to back the highest ranking Trump challenger, Ron DeSantis. Instead, last week Charles Koch stunned the American political scene by throwing his group support behind an outsider in the nomination race, Nikki Haley.

Haley, 51, was governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017 where she showed strong leadership. But she’s better known to Australians for her inspiring speeches when she was US ambassador to the United Nations from January 2017 to December 2018.

Until the Koch backing of Haley, there were at least two other Republican candidates ahead of her in the attempt to overtake the huge lead Trump has established in the Republican nomination campaign for next year’s election.

Not only does Haley have to move ahead of the rival Trump challengers, but then she faces the daunting task of catching up to the enormous supporter base of Trump.

But she has the Koch group’s Republican money behind her and during the primary campaigns Trump has many scheduled court appearances which will hinder his ability to muster huge rallies.

Former US President Donald Trump with Nikki Haley, US ambassador to the United Nations. Picture: Olivier Douliery/AFP

There is now a scramble to discover the policies she will put forward. Remembering she is a politician looking to win from behind, it’s likely that she will embrace flexibility.

Nevertheless, here are a few policy indications appearing in news reports.

The base of the Haley campaign is the claim that she would be “Trumpian without the chaos”. And if she won the presidential election, she would be the first US female president. She also has Indian heritage

In the nomination debates, she raised her hand when candidates were asked if they would back Trump if he were to be the nominee.

She also said she would be inclined to pardon Trump if she became President. If the court hearings become too nasty for Trump, it might be “an offer” he would consider taking up.

The current Haley agenda imposes a five-year term limit on civil servants, sending US special forces into Mexico and sharply cutting social security.

But that agenda might be modified.

According to the reports, she thinks Biden is weak on Russia, China and Hamas.

Haley favours a more interventionist foreign policy than the more isolationist Trump, but she has taken a more hardline stance on abortions than Trump.

But US commentators argue that the contents of her platform are irrelevant. Everyone looks moderate compared to Trump.

Political analysts say that because Haley is not Trump, she has better prospects of defeating Biden than Trump. Her biggest problem is that Trump has a huge support lead in the nomination.

The Democrats remain confident Biden can defeat Trump, but they will be much less confident in a battle between Haley and Biden.

If Haley looks like getting the Republican nomination, and given she has the backing of the Koch money raising groups to fund her presidential campaign, alarmed Democrats will almost certainly consider bringing forward a fully fit Presidential nomination. Again, follow the money.