Global travel nine to 12 months away: Helloworld boss Andrew Burnes

Helloworld boss Andrew Burnes says international travel is at least nine to 12 months away from returning.

The cruise sector is not likely to return to popularity until mid next year. Picture: AFP

Helloworld boss Andrew Burnes says international travel is at least nine to 12 months away from returning, foreshadowing New Zealand and possibly the South Pacific would likely be the first destinations reopened for business.

On the cruise front, the Helloworld CEO said the sector would return to popularity following increased health and safety measures but this was likely not until mid next year. Mr Burnes foreshadowed that cruise companies needed to beef-up their health and safety measures to include near ICU facilities on-board.

In a letter to thousands of Helloworld agents, Mr Burnes discussed the coronavirus recovery process and said he did not believe the travel industry would start opening up for international business until next year.

“The key is to be there to throw the doors wide open again when the world begins to get moving,” he told Helloworld staff. “That will most likely not happen until 2021 and it will not happen with any degree of consistency either.”

On the international travel front, Australians might be permitted at some point to visit, for example, Canada, with no post-return quarantine but not the US, he said. “Or Australians might be permitted to visit the US and Chile but not be able to travel to the US from Chile. The permutations are endless.”

Mr Burnes said travellers would need travel agents’ skills to navigate the complexities of international travel as restrictions come off and, quite possibly, are reimposed.

“Getting to the other side of this is everyone’s greatest challenge. It’s a challenge for airlines, agents, wholesalers, cruise companies, hotels, resorts, tour operators — everyone. And it will come at a cost, both financial and personal.”

The travel veteran predicted that within the next five to six weeks, stage 3 lockdowns would be eased, “slowly and advisedly”.

“Later this year, maybe in July or August, some domestic intrastate travel will begin on a state by state basis. And it will be different for different states. Then at some point, hopefully by September (October at the latest), cross-border travel will be permitted and domestic flights will start to resume, with frequencies increasing as time goes by on condition that infection rates remain, at the very least, tightly controlled and manageable with our given health resources.”

By 2021, the government will look to allow travel to a limited number of overseas destinations, on a bilateral basis, to which Australians can travel and return without the need for quarantine and those countries’ citizens can do the same. “Destinations such as New Zealand and possibly some South Pacific countries could be among the first to open to Australian visitors and vice-versa.

“Beyond that, and in the absence of a widely distributed vaccine (and even if there is a vaccine, it will take a long time for it to be widely distributed), the rest of the world will slowly open up to travel, with corporate travel recovering initially followed by leisure travel not too far behind it.

“But re-emergence of international travel is nine to 12 months away from today so in the meantime it’s going to require a tremendous amount of discipline for travel businesses to basically go into hibernation for the next six months or so.”

Mr Burnes said there would be an incredible demand for travel, and travel to anywhere when things begin to open up, as they would over time. “There will be an enormous amount of activity to bolster travel demand once things start to open up again,’’ he said.

“In 2019, travel contributed $US9.25trnn ($14.5trn) to the global economy and 325 million jobs worldwide. For many countries it is their most significant contributor to GDP and employment, and we can expect to see a lot of marketing funds being directed to driving demand once visitors are able to return to key destinations globally and they will be welcomed with open arms.”

On cruises, Mr Burnes said Helloworld travel staff had questioned if the sector would recover and if the demand for cruise product globally and more specifically in Australia and New Zealand would return. “My answer is yes of course. Cruise has proven to be one of the most popular sectors of the leisure travel industry in the world. The product is popular, well priced and delivers an all-inclusive break that people enjoy.

“Cruise companies are going to have to have significantly increased cleaning and disinfecting measures, commit to much better on-board health including immediate isolation capabilities, respirators and other near ICU facilities and to stringent health checks for all embarking and disembarking passengers and crew.’’