Worst for jobs may be past, ABS payroll figures suggest

New payroll figures suggest the worst of the COVID-19 hit to the labour market may be past.

Waiter Aidan Carstens sanitises the front entrance at Hartsyard restaurant in Sydney’s Newtown in preparation for their first round of diners after the easing of restrictions. Picture: Getty Images

New payroll figures have shown a slight increase in the number of jobs through May, suggesting the worst of the COVID-19 hit to the labour market may be past.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics report on Australian Taxation Office payroll jobs and wages showed the number of roles increased by 1 per cent last month.

Total job losses between mid-March and May 30 are now at 7.5 per cent, charting a gentle recovery from the 8.5 per cent drop by mid-April.

Since March 14, when Australia recorded its 100th confirmed coronavirus case, total wages paid are down 8.3.

Some of the hardest hit sectors such as hospitality showed some recovery, with payroll jobs in accommodation and food services lifting by 5 per cent through May, even as they remained down close to 30 per cent since March.

EY chief economist Jo Masters said the figures provided further evidence that the easing of restrictions was leading to a lift in economic activity.

But Ms Masters warned that “while conditions have improved, and the economy is in better shape than we expected, it is important to remember that we are still in the midst of a severe economic contraction which will result in economic scarring, firms that never re-open the doors and jobs that are lost forever.

“Moreover, the true picture may not emerge until the JobKeeper support is wound back.”

The ABS for the first time provided more granular detail on which industries have suffered the greatest job losses since mid-March.

A third of sports and recreation activities jobs have been lost since the start of the year, and 31 per cent of jobs in creative and performing arts. The accommodation industry has lost 32 per cent of roles, and food and beverage services 29 per cent. More than 27 per cent of motion picture and sound recording payroll jobs have also gone.

 

In contrast, the pandemic has coincided with a 10 per cent increase in the number of jobs in the gas supply industry, and 5 per cent more roles in fuel retailing. Chemical manufacturing jobs have lifted 3.5 per cent, and electricity supply jobs 3.9 per cent.

The new figures confirmed that women have lost a greater number of jobs since March, down 8 per cent versus 6.3 per cent for men, although jobs worked by females in May recovered 1.4 per cent, against a 0.4 per cent gain for males.

The ABS released new analysis which showed that between March 14 and May 30, close to 40 per cent of roles lost were secondary jobs, against a 5.6 per cent fall in “main jobs”.

While the labour force figures measure whether a person is employed or not, the Australian Taxation Office data counts jobs. As an individual can hold multiple jobs, losing a job does not necessarily mean a person is unemployed.

Official unemployment figures on Thursday are expected to show the jobless rate lifted to 7 per cent with a further 75,000 fall in employment, against the April’s nearly 600,000 drop.