Victoria risks on again, off again lockdowns under Daniel Andrews’ roadmap, says Bell Potter
No country with a significant outbreak has recorded fewer than five coronavirus cases across a 14-day average.
Victoria’s benchmark for easing COVID-19 restrictions is unrealistic, with no country with a significant outbreak able to reach the goal of recording fewer than five coronavirus cases across a 14-day average.
The state risks yo-yoing in and out of lockdowns or more permanent restrictions, with its goal of eliminating rather than suppressing COVID-19 based on flawed modelling, according to Steven Anastasiou, a forensic accountant who is an industrials analyst at Bell Potter.
It comes as regional Victoria is set to be released from stay-at-home restrictions from 11.59pm on Wednesday, with hospitality businesses able to open to up to 10 eat-in patrons, having reached the threshold set under Premier Daniel Andrews’s roadmap.
As of Tuesday, regional Victoria’s 14-day daily average is 3.6 cases, with the last case with an unknown source recorded on September 1. Melbourne, however, remains under a stage four lockdown, with a 14-day average of 52.9 — more than 10 times higher than the threshold required for an easing of restrictions.
But Mr Andrews said the beginning of the end of the lockdown was in sight. “With a 14-day average of 52.9, I can confirm Melbourne is on track to reach the second step of reopening by September 28,” he said.
But Mr Anastasiou — who has examined the data Mr Andrews used as justification for stage four restrictions — said while coronavirus cases have been declining, the five-case target was unrealistic and would harm the economy were it to be maintained.
He said no country that had experienced significant community transmission had been able to maintain that target for longer than a week. Finland only managed to do it for six days, while authorities in New Zealand quickly contained its outbreak to avoid significant community transition.
“The idea that cases can be maintained at below five per day for long periods of time, is without precedent in any region that has seen material community transmission,” he said.
“Even places like NSW, which has not seen very high levels of community transmission, has been unable to achieve this target in recent weeks. Despite this, NSW’s outbreak continues to be more than manageable.
“Such a low threshold to ease restrictions thus leaves Victoria at risk of failing to hit/maintain the required threshold, for what would appear to be little to no public benefit, while continuing to result in enormous costs.”
Victoria’s elimination strategy, which business leaders and the federal government have heavily criticised, was based on modelling from the University of Melbourne. Mr Anastasiou said input from a broader group of voices was needed.
“In addition to elimination advocates, those who advocate for strict suppression, as well as a lighter approach, all need to be heard.
“A taskforce must be established to also include views from economists, business operators and general practitioners, who see the depression, anxiety, delay to cancer screening, and impact of elective surgery delays first-hand. Only then can we put fear behind us, and develop a sensible and rational policy for the benefit of all Victorians, and indeed Australia.”
If the current strategy is maintained, Mr Anastasiou said Victoria’s sovereign risk would remain elevated, stifling business investment — a key ingredient in job creation — in the state.
“How can a business owner invest in a state that has the power to shut down a business at any moment, without any parliamentary or judicial oversight? Given that capital flows to where it is most wanted, it will simply flee the state.
“Even if the current restrictions are somewhat lifted, as planned from October 26, the sovereign risk will long linger, with investors likely to be frightened by past policies which they know all too well could be re-implemented at any moment.”
Mr Anastasiou said there was no justification for extending a stage four lockdown in Melbourne, given stage three restrictions were successfully lowering COVID-19 rates.
“The continued implementation of stage four restrictions is an astounding decision which appears to have very limited basis in the data and the science — it was never required to result in a reduction in cases.
“Instead, the data shows that cases would have fallen under stage three restrictions.”
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