Pressure on spending and housing demand with lower migrant numbers: CommSec
New overseas arrivals figures reveal a persistent drop-off in Australian consumer spending power.
New overseas arrivals figures reveal a persistent drop-off in Australian consumer spending power, as visitor numbers languish in the face of COVID-19 barriers.
Short-term overseas visitor arrivals rose by 24.7 per cent between October and November, to 7570 trips – the most since March. But they were down by 99.1 per cent from a year ago, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics figures.
Returning residents rose 16.4 per cent to 13,000 for the same month.
The ABS releases data on overseas arrivals and departures, produced monthly and is an indicator of the health of the tourism sector.
The figures are also useful in understanding spending trends and tracking migrant numbers – an indicator with widespread implications for employment, housing and spending.
CommSec chief economist Craig James said that since March, almost 20,000 people have left the country in a “net” sense (permanent or long-term departures less arrivals).
“By comparison, in the same period a year earlier just under 170,000 people came to Australia. This highlights the loss of spending power,” Mr James said.
“The data showed that in November, the number of short-term visitors arriving for educational purposes stood at 150. A year ago 38,260 students arrived in Australia to study.”
Mr James noted that the retail and housing markets have done well to date, supported by a raft of short-term stimulus.
“But the longer that migrants are kept out, the greater will be the downward pressure on spending and housing demand. Foreign borders are unlikely to be lifted in a meaningful sense until much later in 2021.
“The longer the foreign borders stay shut, the greater the support for our domestic tourism sector as well as our retailers,” he said.
“Australian international airports are still active with around 2500 people per day either coming or going on planes.
“Each person has a story but it is interesting that so many still have a significant reason to be leaving or coming to our country.”
While COVID-19 has effectively closed Australia’s international borders, the ABS data showed that in November, 44,240 people went to the airport with the intention of going overseas: 21,450 were short-term visitors; 13,690 were Aussies making short trips; and 9100 were Aussies travelling overseas for an extended period or permanently.
A smaller number – 29,330 were at the airport, coming into the country – and these went into quarantine in the month.
Of the total, 7570 were short-term visitors; 13,000 were Aussies that returned from short trips and 8,760 were foreigners coming to Australia either for an extended period or permanently.
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