New strategy needed as Covid cases surge

Queuing for the vaccine at a Sydney Covid-19 vaccination hub. Picture: Joel Carrett

The Delta variation of Covid-19 is in danger of getting out of control in NSW. The nation is therefore facing a potential crisis in 2021 that is both different and in some ways more serious than last year.

In my view a more radical set of actions is required.

According to Commonwealth Bank figures credit card retail sales in NSW are declining rapidly, which is a clear indicator of a dramatic slowdown. This is not a credit card market share issue because all other states are holding well. The NSW retail downturn is likely to accelerate and spread to other areas.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is throwing money to reduce the impact of the slide and will probably throw more. But this time the sense of frustration in previously confident NSW will mean that money alone will not work, as it did with JobKeeper.

The 2020 events were different. As a result of appalling quarantine management by the Victorian government it lost control of the virus and 800 people lost their lives. Any loss of life is tragic but the greatest concentration of deaths was in the aged care section of the community, which reduced the economic blow. Victoria imposed one of the longest lockdowns ever attempted in the world but it worked and the virus was controlled.

In the NSW Delta 2021 infection, hospitalisation and death is scattered throughout all ages in the community. When NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian imposed her “Claytons lockdown” against the Delta variant most Australians outside NSW -- but particularly Victorians -- knew its chances of working were slim and that the infection rate would rise. On cue, that’s what happened. Once again state government mismanagement had caused a disaster.

Now a proper lockdown has been introduced but it’s too late because Delta is more infectious than last year’s virus and so to control the virus NSW is facing even more severe lockdowns for many months.

The anger in Sydney is building up and I suspect we’re going to see even bigger protests, so fanning the state’s infection rate, US-style.

An anti-lockdown protest in Melbourne.

Most of the other states have made sacrifices to bring the virus under control. They are now petrified that all their hard work will be destroyed by what is happening in NSW so their natural reaction is to tighten the border controls more firmly and let NSW suffer from its own mistakes.

Since federation Australia has never faced this sort of divisive dilemma where, acting out of fear, the rest of the nation blockades the largest state by population. The economic consequences and lasting distrust are uncharted.

Given the seriousness of the situation, let me put forward a framework proposal in the full knowledge that it is controversial and many will legitimately disagree. I suggest that the current lockdown restrictions in NSW continue for another four to six weeks but with a clear end game.

Restrictions in other states should remain or, in the case of Victoria, be reduced, assuming the virus remains under control.

Then on that trigger date, all those who are vaccinated and have received two doses should be free to travel the nation, attend events, restaurants and theatres. In many cases they still might need to use masks but the combination of proper vaccination and masks should protect the “passport”-holding vaccinated community. The non-vaccinated people will be subjected to a continuation of restrictions as to where they can go.

A nurse receives the Pfizer vaccine in Sydney. Picture: Getty Images

I have received my first AstraZeneca vaccine and the second is due next week. For what it is worth, I was very carefully briefed on what to look for in terms of blood clots on the first vaccine and I am sure that will be repeated on the second. Many people are saying “no” to AstraZeneca and are waiting for Pfizer to be available.

Right now the NSW risks on AstraZeneca look much lower than the risk of death or severe long-term illness from the virus. But people will have a choice. Most waiting for Pfizer will gain their freedom of movement by the end of the year because there is a big increase in the supply scheduled for September / October.

At the moment, in the community, those who would prefer to wait for the availability of Pfizer combine forces with those who don’t want to be vaccinated at all. That is their privilege but arguably they can’t expect to be able to attend community events. This segregated solution is a growing pattern worldwide because it allows people in nations to continue to earn a living.

And what we really need is the combination of vaccination and quick test results. Some of the products being developed overseas claim to test saliva in less than a minute and those products need to be tested here.

The combination of quick testing and vaccination would be a huge step enabling the nation to minimise the impact of the virus.

Part of Australia’s problem is that we committed substantial financial resources in 2020 and we simply can’t keep doing that without destroying our economy and credit rating.

We do need to help NSW plus any state that becomes impacted by virus leakage from NSW or quarantine.

By the end of the year (in Melbourne) Australia should have a second proper quarantine facility and we need to urgently erect additional facilities so we can safely bring more people in from overseas.

The decline in NSW means that the current policy of toughing it out for the rest of the calendar year becomes a dangerous strategy.