NAB research highlights anxiety over job security

People are increasingly concerned about their job security in the year ahead, according to NAB research, particularly younger Australian workers.

People are increasingly concerned about job security over the next 12 months, according to NAB research, while consumer stress over cost-of-living pressures remains heightened but is levelling off as inflation eases.

The NAB Consumer Stress Index report has risen for the fifth consecutive quarter to sit at its highest level since the March quarter of 2020, with the cost of living the major stressor.

“While cost-of-living stress has levelled out, concerns related to job security continue to climb, rising quite sharply in the December quarter,” the report says.

“The flattening of cost-of-living stress against rising new concerns is becoming an important piece in the outlook for the consumer in 2024. Australians continue to undertake ‘consumption smoothing’, making deliberate spending trade-offs to manage household balance sheets, support their lifestyle and cope with unexpected expenses.”

Stress levels over living costs were unchanged in the three months to the end of December at 69.4 points as inflation continued to moderate. Overall, the NAB Consumer Stress Index rose to 59.9 points, up from 56 points in the previous December quarter.

This comes as Anthony Albanese called a snap caucus meeting in Canberra with all Labor MPs to discuss relief measures for middle Australia from the inflationary impact on the cost of living.

NAB said that, in addition to job stress, consumer concern over the impact of government policies on their future spending and savings plans had also increased noticeably. “Just over one in five consumers are now reporting ‘very high’ levels of stress arising from government policies,” the survey revealed.

“Consumers also reported the highest level of stress stemming from their ability to fund their ­retirement since the onset of Covid in March 2020.”

Job security stress has risen steadily among consumers since the 2022 September quarter as economic conditions have become more challenging, reaching 48.2 points in the 2023 December quarter, up almost 14 per cent from a year ago, and now trending well above the NAB survey average of 45.8 points.

NAB expects consumer concern around jobs to continue rising this year as unemployment rises as the economy slows, with NAB forecasting the jobless rate to hit 4.5 per cent by the end of 2024, up from 3.9 per cent last month.

For the first time, NAB asked consumers if they thought their job security would be higher or lower in the next three and 12 months.

All ages expected their job ­security to be lower in the next 12 months, with the 18 to 29-year-old demographic most concerned about job security in the next three months.

By state, overall stress was highest in South Australia and Victoria, with both states reporting a spike in job security stress.

The NAB behavioural and industry economics team said consumers across all incomes were looking for ways to save money and rein in spending.

“One in two cut back on eating out, buying micro treats such as coffee and snacks, entertainment and car travel. Combined, these cutbacks amounted to monthly savings of $300 (creating a potential savings buffer of around $3600 a year if continued),” NAB said.

NAB said consumers planned to curb spending in most areas in the next three months, except essential items where rising costs were forcing them to spend more.