Melburnians escape to the country after lockdown, NAB spending data shows

NAB Group Economics’ latest report into consumer spending shows a divide between regional and metropolitan areas.

NAB Group Economics’ latest report into consumer spending has revealed a divide between regional and metropolitan areas. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Victoria’s economy is running at two speeds after Daniel Andrews pulled down Melbourne’s ring of steel, fuelling many citysiders to escape to the country while CBD businesses continue to struggle.

NAB Group Economics’ latest report into consumer spending has revealed a divide between regional and metropolitan areas, with country cafes, pubs and accommodation providers reaping a bonanza from pent up demand from Melburnians seeking mini-breaks after almost four months of lockdown.

According to the report — based on NAB credit card transaction — in the first full week out of restrictions, spending in regional Victoria on accommodation surged 22 per cent, while spending at cafes, restaurants and takeaway rose 76 per cent, and pubs and bars jumped 39 per cent, compared with the same week in 2019.

In the second week out of restrictions, accommodation soared another 31 per cent, while cafes, restaurants and takeaways leapt 55 per cent, and country pubs and bars soared 27 per cent.

But nationally, overall spending growth was subdued, slowing to 2.2 per cent in the week ending November 21, led by an 8.9 per cent fall in South Australia after the state went into temporary lockdown.

NAB customer executive Regional Agribusiness, Julie Rynski, said while the pandemic had fuelled spending growth in regional areas, CBD business were yet to bounce back as working from home becomes more normal and making a treechange more viable for some workers.

But she didn’t believe there would be a complete flight from the CBD to outer suburbs and popular regional areas like Victoria’s Bellarine Peninsula, the Great Ocean Road and Gippsland.

“What we are dealing with is we are dealing with human fear. I know myself - and I live in Melbourne bayside and I haven’t been to a shopping centre. But I’ve been to Geelong, Ballarat and Warragul where I feel the spaces are a bit more open,” Ms Rynski said.

“Things may try to get back to normal but will we get back to normal. That’s the question.

“I think it will be a better balance, and when I say that - and I can only speak on behalf of NAB - we’re not looking at everyone working from home five days a week. Our expectation is people will still go to the office a few days a week. Sadly, CBD’s more generally are going to feel some form of contraction.”

On the flipside, Ms Rynski said regional areas that have been suffering economically, will experience a resurgence, given many farmers were experiencing labour shortages after travel bans stemmed the flow of backpackers.

“I see all these small communities experiencing a resurgence because you know when people move to regional communities, you need more schools, healthcare - it has a domino effect that gives these communities a charge that leads to its longevity.

“That’s certainly something we are going to see. But I do feel for those who have apartments in the CBD because they are probably not going to be nearly as popular as they were when people were working there five and six days a week.”

Greater Geelong, including the Bellarine Peninsula and the Great Ocean Road as far as Lorne, North-East Victoria’s Hume region, Latrobe and Gippsland captured around half of accommodation spending from Melbourne residents.

Meanwhile, the Mornington Peninsula captured almost a third of cafe, restaurant and takeaway spending, a market perhaps more influenced by those taking a day trip, Ms Rynski said.