How Scott Morrison can shift Australia into fast lane on emissions

Companies such as Ampol, working with Tesla, are piloting electric-vehicle charging infrastructure. Picture: Bloomberg

Scott Morrison lands in Glasgow for COP26 in just over four weeks. In his top pocket should be a big, bold offering from Australia on climate change.

A commitment that Australia will shift to electric vehicles and ban the sale of new petrol cars by 2032. Ten years to shift gear.

This would be a strong signal that the recalcitrant colony is back on board with Western thinking on emissions.

And given the global car market is moving rapidly to EVs anyway, the overall cost to the economy to deliver on the commitment will be worth it.

The Australian’s excellent special EV feature last weekend was a turbo charge for a debate that should be much bigger in this country.

The Prime Minister says he has an integrated climate change plan in the making. Josh Frydenberg has moved the dial in his landmark speech. Last month, Morrison “clarified” his 2019 comment that “Bill Shorten wants to end the weekend” as not a criticism of EVs but of bad Labor policy. The ground is moving.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison during a visit to the White House. Picture: Adam Taylor

A commitment to EVs by 2032, a full decade away, is a no-brainer. Transport is Australia’s third-highest sector for emissions and half of that comes from cars. We no longer have a car industry to protect.

A majority of Australians surveyed would consider buying an EV as their next car. Importantly, the shift to EVs under way in Europe means car production will change. Aussie drivers risk missing out on technology as global car manufacturers put their bells and whistles into EVs rather than petrol cars.

In the first half of 2021 just 0.78 per cent of new vehicles sold in Australia were EVs. That compares with 10.7 per cent in the UK, 6.2 per cent in China and 2.3 per cent in the US.

What is happening now in Britain and Europe, where so many of our favourite models are made, should be a wake-up call.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the host of COP26 in Glasgow, is leading the charge on EVs. In November last year he banned the sale of all new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. The move has prompted a major ramp-up in construction of charging infrastructure across Europe and new commitments by carmakers, nudged by EU directives.

The EU wants 30 million EVs on the road in Europe by the end of the decade, up from the current 1.4 million. Recovery money is being steered into infrastructure and consumers offered incentives to buy EVs.

Last month US President Joe Biden signed an executive order setting a voluntary target for electric vehicles, hydrogen and plug-in hybrids to make up half of US sales by 2030.

In Australia, the beautiful thing about a commitment to EV transition today is that it has little bearing on the broader debate about the controversial timing of coal’s exit.

What powers the electricity that goes in the car, just as what heats or cools the home, is a different issue. Yet a commitment for 2032 will provide the investment certainty to prepare the infrastructure. And it will mean we can choose to reduce fossil fuels in transport, effectively by a flick of the switch, rather than wait for the lag of consumers to move on from petrol cars long after Europe has jumped.

Of course there are roadblocks, starting with federation. Some states have sped ahead with different EV policies in frustration at Canberra. NSW is leading with plans to transition the government fleet and buses by 2030. NSW, Victoria and South Australia have various targets in place for between 50 per cent and 100 per cent of new-car sales to be EVs by between 2030 and 2035. They also offer varying consumer incentives. A national plan would be good.

EVs are still more expensive than petrol cars to buy even if they are less than a third of the cost to run. Norway has achieved a 58 per cent EV market share of new sales largely because of incentives, like dropping import tariffs, but many of these incentives are temporary.

Opposition climate change and energy spokesman Chris Bowen says Labor wants to slash 5 per cent of the sale price for electric vehicles subject to import taxes, and will target its policies to cars below the luxury car threshold. Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor says the government has committed $1.4bn to date in the space including $25m for fast-charging stations. At the weekend his rhetoric was still about ensuring people “drive their preferred choice of vehicle – be that petrol, diesel, ­hydrogen or electric-powered”. But COP26 offers a chance to switch into a faster lane.

“I think it’s going to happen anyway,” said Energy Security Board chair Kerry Schott of the need to shift to EVs in Australia. Work will be needed on the distribution of electricity for car charging and also managing the times people recharge at home as that market develops, perhaps using price incentives.

Companies such as Ampol, working with Tesla, are piloting charging infrastructure and working closely with the government at many levels around energy storage and security.

Global car manufacturers have set timelines to becoming 100 per cent electric: Jaguar Land Rover by 2025, Mazda and Ford in Europe by 2030, Audi by 2033, Nissan by the early 2030s, GM 2035, Daimler 2039, Honda 2040.

But EV enthusiasts say a ­vicious circle of limited infrastructure means car companies may neglect Australia as a preferred market. The EV Council says 31 models available today will rise to just 58 by the end of next year.

“An automotive Third World” is how Volkswagen’s local arm has described Australia, saying it is struggling to convince head office it is a viable EV market. This is disturbing because Australians could miss out on leading technology.

Agriculture has its own issues. A carve-out for diesel vehicles on farm is an obvious option. In mining, the push is on for a switch to hydrogen-fuelled transporters with Fortescue’s Andrew Forrest at the vanguard.

To drive this inevitable shift to EVs faster, the big question is how much to spend on incentives. This is a government that has no qualms about spending money if the imperative is there, whether on defence or Covid.

Politically, EVs must be sold as a critical part of Australia’s step change to 2050. It is an easier step than some others it will need to make. As Morrison well knows, 10 years is a long time in the energy market and after his US trip, he has a taste of the effectiveness of being on the front foot.