Federal election 2022: Josh Frydenberg struggling against new TV tactics

My Coalition informants tell me that Josh Frydenberg is in deep trouble in Kooyong.

And one of the new techniques being used to attack him threatens a wide range of sitting members in future elections. The Treasurer’s difficulties were enhanced at the weekend by his low position on the ballot paper and an article in the The Age authored by Rob Baillieu, the son of former Liberal premier Ted Baillieu.

Ted Baillieu’s former state electorate of Hawthorn is part of the Kooyong electorate and the Baillieu family has been a core part of the Melbourne establishment for more than a century.

Rob Baillieu starts his Liberal attack this way: “Fifteen months ago, Josh Frydenberg asked if we could get coffee. Today, I’m the volunteer manager for Monique Ryan – leading her 1500 volunteers in an attempt to unseat him. How did this happen?

“In 2016, I was encouraged to work for a ‘moderate’ Liberal Party MP, who I am choosing not to name. The notional interview was one of the most homophobic experiences of my life. The climate scepticism, sexism, and disregard for basic scientific principles didn’t help. If these are the moderates, who on earth are the conservatives?”

The Baillieu establishment connection has damaged Frydenberg. Much of the money backing Ryan and Baillieu has been mustered via hard-line green Simon Holmes a Court, whose father Robert mobilised part of the investment establishment to challenge BHP. Like father …

Obviously events can change in the next four weeks but without Frydenberg the dynamic in the Liberal Party will change significantly, especially if other green movement-funded independents challenging the sitting so-called moderate Liberals also win.

As with Frydenberg, those under challenge are moderates, so it would leave the Liberal Party dominated by its right wing.

Meanwhile the business, investment and retirement communities must prepare for a Labor-Greens win and a totally different set of government policies, which will trigger a new situation for all enterprises, but particularly family enterprises.

This week I will be covering some of the likely surprises from a ALP win which the Liberal Party has not bothered to emphasise.

Meanwhile the green movement funding plus money from small donors, helped by the Baillieu connection, has funded the two key techniques in the Ryan campaign.

The first – tapping of community networks to launch massive numbers of front yard and shop banners – is not new. But the scale of the Kooyong banner operations has few precedents. Given his obligations as Treasurer, Frydenberg was particularly vulnerable.

The second Kooyong technique, Connected Television, is totally new for a major federal political campaign.

For at least 60 years, massive political television campaigning has been effective but its use confined to major parties or very rich individuals. Connected Television enables advertisers to target residents of specific postcodes, so it is ideal for political advertising of individual candidates. It costs a small fraction of free-to air TV, and you only pay if the viewer’s television is tuned to your advertisement.

Ryan and Baillieu have used Connected Television with devastating force against Frydenberg. Both Frydenberg and the Liberal campaign HQ were totally unprepared.

I described last year the potential impact of Connected Television – but did not link its potential to the 2022 election.

In the Connected Television network, usually no subscription is charged but viewers must register their year of birth and gender while the internet connection picks up the postcode.

Much of the viewing is catch-up, where people miss programs on free-to-air TV.

Connected Television viewership boomed during the Olympics.

Politically, Connected Television can be used in any Australian seat and will create unprecedented dangers to sitting members. It is likely that it will be used by the other independents who are challenging Liberals.

Frydenberg now has a fighting fund that is in the $1m to $2m range – around the same level as Ryan.

Suddenly, Frydenberg posters are sprouting up all over Kooyong to rival Ryan’s. But Frydenberg is not using Connected Television.

Meanwhile, if Frydenberg is in trouble then it is possible other sitting Liberals under challenge are also in great danger. If they are defeated, not only will the ALP form government but the Liberals will inevitably become a much more right wing party and the ALP could take the centre ground as they did under Bob Hawke and Paul Keating.

Some concerned Liberals have had conversations with Niki Savva, a member of the staff of former prime minister John Howard and former treasurer Peter Costello. She now writes for The Age.

Savva has become their messenger and last week wrote: “If the Coalition wants to deal itself in, if it wants to stay in government, it may have to dispense with Morrison. Don’t think for a moment that this hasn’t crossed the mind of a number of Liberal MPs.”

While dumping Scott Morrison is not even a 100-to-one shot, those who engaged with Savva say that with Frydenberg as Liberal leader, the Coalition would beat the independent challengers and the party would not swing to the right. And it might win government.